Citi Expects a Q3 Miss By Ulta Beauty

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) is a leading beauty retailer in the United States, offering a wide range of cosmetics, skincare, and haircare products. The company operates in the competitive retail industry, facing rivals like Sephora and Sally Beauty. Ulta's unique selling proposition is its combination of high-end and drugstore beauty products, along with salon services.

On May 29, 2025, Ulta reported impressive financial results, with earnings per share (EPS) of $6.70, surpassing the estimated $5.81. This represents a significant earnings surprise of 16.12%, as highlighted by Zacks. The company's EPS also increased from $6.47 in the previous year, showcasing consistent growth. Ulta has exceeded consensus EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, demonstrating its strong financial performance.

Ulta's revenue for the quarter was approximately $2.85 billion, exceeding the estimated $2.79 billion. This marks a 1.57% revenue surprise, according to Zacks. Year-over-year, Ulta's revenue grew from $2.73 billion to $2.85 billion, indicating robust sales growth. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times in the past four quarters, reflecting its ability to outperform market expectations.

The company's strong performance has led to an increase in its full-year outlook, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. Ulta's same-store sales rose by 2.9%, significantly surpassing the anticipated 0.2% increase. This growth was driven by higher average ticket sizes and an increase in the number of transactions, highlighting the company's successful sales strategies.

Ulta's financial metrics provide further insights into its market valuation. The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 16.25, indicating how the market values its earnings. Its price-to-sales ratio is about 1.69, reflecting the market's valuation of its revenue. Additionally, Ulta's enterprise value to sales ratio is around 1.79, and its enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is approximately 15.18, offering perspectives on its valuation relative to sales and cash flow. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.77 suggests moderate financial leverage, while a current ratio of about 1.70 indicates a strong ability to cover short-term liabilities.

• Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) is set to release its quarterly earnings with an expected EPS of $5.76 and revenue of approximately $2.79 billion.
• JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers has reiterated an Overweight rating on Ulta, adjusting the price target from $475 to $477.
• Ulta's financial health is highlighted by an earnings yield of 6.16% and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.77, indicating a balanced approach to financing.

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (NASDAQ:ULTA) is a leading beauty retailer in the United States, offering a wide range of cosmetics, skincare, and haircare products. The company is known for its unique blend of mass and prestige offerings, which sets it apart from competitors like Sephora and Sally Beauty. Ulta's strong market position is reflected in its financial metrics and growth potential.

As Ulta prepares to release its quarterly earnings on May 29, 2025, Wall Street analysts project an earnings per share (EPS) of $5.76 and revenue of approximately $2.79 billion. This announcement is anticipated to provide insights into the company's performance and could influence its stock price, as highlighted by Business Wire. The company's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 16.23, indicating how the market values its earnings.

JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers has reiterated an Overweight rating on Ulta, slightly increasing the price target from $475 to $477. This optimism is supported by Ulta's recent fourth-quarter earnings update, where the company reported nearly flat comparable sales trends that are beginning to improve. This improvement is attributed to the momentum from its semi-annual event and a more stable consumer and beauty market.

Horvers anticipates that the beauty category's growth will normalize to its historical range of 3% to 4%, which could allow Ulta to gain market share. This growth is expected to lead to better margin conversion, earnings growth, and potential multiple expansion. Ulta's price-to-sales ratio of 1.68 and enterprise value to sales ratio of 1.79 reflect the company's revenue valuation relative to its market capitalization and total value.

Ulta's financial health is further supported by its earnings yield of 6.16% and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.77, indicating a balanced approach to financing its assets. The company's current ratio of 1.70 suggests a strong ability to cover short-term liabilities with short-term assets. CEO Kecia Steelman's positive outlook during the April 3 RRU conference reinforces confidence in Ulta's future performance.

UBS maintained its Buy rating and $490 price target on Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA), citing signs of stabilization in the retailer’s market position and improved conditions across several key areas.

Analysts pointed to recent data suggesting that Ulta’s market share has leveled off, indicating a potential end to the sales drag caused by the Sephora rollout at Kohl’s, which now appears to have been more disruptive than previously estimated. With that cannibalization likely peaking, UBS believes Ulta is better positioned to regain sales momentum.

On the cost side, the firm expects that potential new tariffs will have minimal impact, thanks to the sourcing and manufacturing diversification of major beauty brands. Meanwhile, the beauty sector's resilience in past downturns supports the case that Ulta can continue to perform well even if the broader consumer landscape weakens.

With shares currently trading just above 15 times next-twelve-month earnings estimates, UBS sees room for multiple expansion and stock appreciation, particularly as sales headwinds subside and Ulta maintains its strong brand and category leadership.

UBS maintained its Buy rating and $490 price target on Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA), citing signs of stabilization in the retailer’s market position and improved conditions across several key areas.

Analysts pointed to recent data suggesting that Ulta’s market share has leveled off, indicating a potential end to the sales drag caused by the Sephora rollout at Kohl’s, which now appears to have been more disruptive than previously estimated. With that cannibalization likely peaking, UBS believes Ulta is better positioned to regain sales momentum.

On the cost side, the firm expects that potential new tariffs will have minimal impact, thanks to the sourcing and manufacturing diversification of major beauty brands. Meanwhile, the beauty sector's resilience in past downturns supports the case that Ulta can continue to perform well even if the broader consumer landscape weakens.

With shares currently trading just above 15 times next-twelve-month earnings estimates, UBS sees room for multiple expansion and stock appreciation, particularly as sales headwinds subside and Ulta maintains its strong brand and category leadership.

• Ulta Beauty Inc (NASDAQ:ULTA) continues to outperform in the beauty retail sector, with Telsey Advisory maintaining an "Outperform" rating.
• The company's fourth-quarter FY24 earnings exceeded expectations, leading to a notable rise in its share price, despite a cautious FY25 guidance.
• Analysts have mixed views on ULTA's future performance, with adjustments in price targets reflecting a cautious optimism.

Ulta Beauty Inc (NASDAQ:ULTA) is a prominent player in the beauty retail industry, offering a wide range of cosmetics, skincare, and haircare products. The company operates numerous stores across the United States, providing a unique shopping experience with both high-end and affordable beauty products. Ulta competes with other major retailers like Sephora and department stores, striving to maintain its market position.

On March 14, 2025, Telsey Advisory maintained its "Outperform" rating for ULTA, suggesting confidence in the stock's potential. At the time, ULTA was priced at approximately $357.48. This decision to hold the stock aligns with the company's recent performance, as highlighted by its fourth-quarter FY24 earnings that exceeded expectations, leading to a notable rise in its share price.

Despite the positive earnings report, Ulta's FY25 guidance fell short of consensus estimates. However, the company projected favorable outcomes for comparable sales and operating margins, with expectations between 11.7% and 11.8%. This indicates a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the upcoming fiscal year, despite challenges in the prestige segment where market share was lost.

Analysts have mixed views on ULTA's future performance. Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane maintained a Neutral rating, adjusting the price target from $392 to $384. Similarly, Stifel analyst Mark S. Astrachan reiterated a Hold rating, lowering the price target from $475 to $400. Both analysts acknowledged Ulta's strong fourth-quarter results, with an EBIT of $516 million, but remain cautious about the company's future prospects.

Currently, ULTA is trading at $357.48, reflecting a significant increase of $43.01, or 13.68%. The stock has fluctuated between a low of $330.17 and a high of $359.82 today. Over the past year, ULTA has seen a high of $546.58 and a low of $309.01. With a market capitalization of approximately $16.58 billion and a trading volume of 3,367,548 shares, ULTA remains a key player in the beauty retail sector.

• Ulta Beauty Inc (NASDAQ:ULTA) continues to outperform in the beauty retail sector, with Telsey Advisory maintaining an "Outperform" rating.
• The company's fourth-quarter FY24 earnings exceeded expectations, leading to a notable rise in its share price, despite a cautious FY25 guidance.
• Analysts have mixed views on ULTA's future performance, with adjustments in price targets reflecting a cautious optimism.

Ulta Beauty Inc (NASDAQ:ULTA) is a prominent player in the beauty retail industry, offering a wide range of cosmetics, skincare, and haircare products. The company operates numerous stores across the United States, providing a unique shopping experience with both high-end and affordable beauty products. Ulta competes with other major retailers like Sephora and department stores, striving to maintain its market position.

On March 14, 2025, Telsey Advisory maintained its "Outperform" rating for ULTA, suggesting confidence in the stock's potential. At the time, ULTA was priced at approximately $357.48. This decision to hold the stock aligns with the company's recent performance, as highlighted by its fourth-quarter FY24 earnings that exceeded expectations, leading to a notable rise in its share price.

Despite the positive earnings report, Ulta's FY25 guidance fell short of consensus estimates. However, the company projected favorable outcomes for comparable sales and operating margins, with expectations between 11.7% and 11.8%. This indicates a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the upcoming fiscal year, despite challenges in the prestige segment where market share was lost.

Analysts have mixed views on ULTA's future performance. Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane maintained a Neutral rating, adjusting the price target from $392 to $384. Similarly, Stifel analyst Mark S. Astrachan reiterated a Hold rating, lowering the price target from $475 to $400. Both analysts acknowledged Ulta's strong fourth-quarter results, with an EBIT of $516 million, but remain cautious about the company's future prospects.

Currently, ULTA is trading at $357.48, reflecting a significant increase of $43.01, or 13.68%. The stock has fluctuated between a low of $330.17 and a high of $359.82 today. Over the past year, ULTA has seen a high of $546.58 and a low of $309.01. With a market capitalization of approximately $16.58 billion and a trading volume of 3,367,548 shares, ULTA remains a key player in the beauty retail sector.

Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) shares surged nearly 12% intra-day today after the cosmetics retailer posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, driven by strong demand during the holiday season. However, weaker-than-anticipated full-year guidance raised concerns about the impact of economic headwinds on consumer spending.

The company reported earnings per share of $8.46 on revenue of $3.5 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $7.11 EPS and $3.46 billion in revenue. Comparable sales rose 1.5%, outperforming estimates despite heightened competition in the beauty industry. To attract customers during the critical holiday period, Ulta introduced strategic discounts, particularly around Thanksgiving, which helped drive sales momentum.

Despite the strong quarter, Ulta continues to navigate broader pressures on consumer spending, as inflation and economic uncertainty lead some shoppers to cut back on discretionary purchases.

Looking ahead, Ulta’s full-year 2025 guidance fell short of expectations. The company projects earnings per share between $22.50 and $22.90 on revenue of $11.5 billion to $11.6 billion, trailing analyst estimates of $23.47 EPS and $11.67 billion in revenue. Comparable sales growth is expected to be flat to 1%, signaling a potential slowdown in spending trends.