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Prediction Markets

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on December 31, 2026?

Above 6500
40% +5%
Between 6000 - 6500
35% -3%
Below 6000
25% -2%

22.8M volume

S&P 500's trajectory by late 2026 hinges on sustained corporate earnings growth, moderating inflation, and the Fed's interest rate path influencing equity valuations and market sentiment.

What will be the target range for the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) after the final FOMC meeting of 2026 (December)?

Below 3.50%
30% +4%
Between 3.50% - 4.50%
45% -2%
Above 4.50%
25% -2%

15.3M volume

The Fed's policy path by late 2026 will be dictated by inflation's persistence, labor market strength, and overall economic growth, influencing the pace and depth of interest rate adjustments.

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Market News

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India raises taxes on diesel and jet fuel exports
India raises taxes on diesel and jet fuel exports India has raised windfall taxes on ​exports of diesel ‌and aviation turbine fuel as global oil ​prices surge amid ​an escalation of the ⁠U.S.-Iran conflict, according ​to a government order. via Reuters
Jul 15
Mira Murati's AI Startup Releases First Model in Bid to Loosen AI Giants' Grip
Mira Murati's AI Startup Releases First Model in Bid to Loosen AI Giants' Grip Thinking Machines Lab CEO Mira Murati is betting on smaller and more customizable artificial-intelligence models to chip away at the lead of frontier labs such OpenAI and Anthropic. via WSJ
Jul 15
SHOCKING SHIFT: New inflation report just CHANGED the outlook
SHOCKING SHIFT: New inflation report just CHANGED the outlook 'The Big Money Show' panel reacts to cooling inflation data, President Donald Trump's prediction of lower prices and what the latest reports could mean for consumers and the economy. via Fox Business
Jul 15
AI startup Thinking Machines launches an open-weight AI model
AI startup Thinking Machines launches an open-weight AI model AI startup Thinking Machines revealed on Wednesday a new artificial intelligence model that could serve as one ​of the few alternatives to popular open-source offerings from Chinese ‌AI labs. via Reuters
Jul 15
Banks Crush Earnings and Give Tech Stocks a Breather
Banks Crush Earnings and Give Tech Stocks a Breather Banks can't do what tech does. But they've done well nonetheless. via Barrons
Jul 15
Warsh won't say if he's spoken with Trump since taking the Fed's helm
Warsh won't say if he's spoken with Trump since taking the Fed's helm Senate Democrats are uneasy about White House influence at central bank. via Market Watch
Jul 15
Fed Chairman Warsh says he meets 'often' with Trump administration, defends independence
Fed Chairman Warsh says he meets 'often' with Trump administration, defends independence The Fed chair and Treasury secretary meet weekly under long-standing tradition. Warsh on Wednesday said he goes beyond that. via CNBC
Jul 15
Wall Street banks point to resilient US consumer as loan growth picks up
Wall Street banks point to resilient US consumer as loan growth picks up Wall Street's largest banks struck a reassuring tone on U.S. consumer health, citing steady spending, rising loan balances and healthy credit quality that suggest households remain resilient despite growing economic uncertainty. via Reuters
Jul 15

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