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Prediction Markets

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 index on December 31, 2026?

Above 6800
42% +7%
Between 6200 - 6800
38% -5%
Below 6200
20% -2%

22.1M volume

Continued strong corporate earnings growth, driven by AI adoption and productivity gains, is expected to offset higher for longer interest rate concerns, supporting market expansion.

What will be the upper bound of the Federal Funds Rate target range following the final FOMC meeting of 2026 (December 18, 2026)?

Above 4.25%
28% +5%
Between 3.25% - 4.25%
48% -3%
Below 3.25%
24% -2%

17.3M volume

Inflation trends and labor market dynamics will dictate the Fed's pace. A path of measured cuts is anticipated if inflation moderates without severe economic contraction, though risks remain.

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Trending News

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Research firm declares ‘end of the AI trade as we know it' — and Asian tech stocks reflect the shift
Research firm declares ‘end of the AI trade as we know it' — and Asian tech stocks reflect the shift Now that absolute value is much harder to find in the AI trade, with bets having to be made on a longer-term, more speculative basis, it's time to search for relative value within the sector, says one research service. via Market Watch
Nov 05
Leonardo's record backlog, accelerated deliveries to boost new plan targets, CEO says
Leonardo's record backlog, accelerated deliveries to boost new plan targets, CEO says Leonardo's record backlog, accelerated deliveries to boost new plan targets, CEO says via Reuters
Nov 05
Sappi, UPM offer remedies to win EU antitrust approval for paper joint venture
Sappi, UPM offer remedies to win EU antitrust approval for paper joint venture Sappi, UPM offer remedies to win EU antitrust approval for paper joint venture via Reuters
Nov 05
How the Data Center Backlash Could Play Into the Hands of Big Tech
How the Data Center Backlash Could Play Into the Hands of Big Tech Giants like Amazon and Microsoft stand to benefit from a shakeout. via WSJ
Nov 05
EU top court tells tribunal to reassess veto on €3.4 billion aid to KLM
EU top court tells tribunal to reassess veto on €3.4 billion aid to KLM EU top court tells tribunal to reassess veto on €3.4 billion aid to KLM via Reuters
Nov 05
A prolonged war in Iran is the market's real ‘black swan,' says this strategist
A prolonged war in Iran is the market's real ‘black swan,' says this strategist Alicia Levine, of BNY's wealth management business, said markets have not priced in the possibility of the war in Iran lasting for a long time. via Market Watch
Nov 05
Asia fuel oil benchmarks slump as market prices in potential Iran war de-escalation
Asia fuel oil benchmarks slump as market prices in potential Iran war de-escalation Asia fuel oil benchmarks slump as market prices in potential Iran war de-escalation via Reuters
Nov 05
AI Selloff Extends, Treasurys Gain as Blue Wave Reverberates
AI Selloff Extends, Treasurys Gain as Blue Wave Reverberates Artificial-intelligence stocks continued to weaken globally as investors digested the implications of the Democratic sweep in the U.S. midterm elections. via WSJ
Nov 05
Stock Market Today: AI Stocks Under Pressure While Dow Futures Rise
Stock Market Today: AI Stocks Under Pressure While Dow Futures Rise Chipmaker Qualcomm's earnings disappoint via WSJ
Nov 05
Norges Bank Holds Key Interest Rate But Signals Readiness to Tighten
Norges Bank Holds Key Interest Rate But Signals Readiness to Tighten Norway's central bank held its key interest rate, but kept open the possibility of further policy tightening should inflation remain high. via WSJ
Nov 05
European shares rise on mining gains; tech lags
European shares rise on mining gains; tech lags European shares rise on mining gains; tech lags via Reuters
Nov 05
Options markets may be too quick to price out risk after election rally: Scott Nations
Options markets may be too quick to price out risk after election rally: Scott Nations Scott Nations, president of Nations Indexes, says the post-election rise in stocks was not overdone, and improving market breadth was encouraging. But he warns that options markets may have been too quick to shed protection against a downturn, with Friday's jobs report and other risks still ahead. via CNBC International TV
Nov 05
China could offer a defensive option if the AI bubble bursts: Expert
China could offer a defensive option if the AI bubble bursts: Expert Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management CEO, says that China's economy remains two-speed with strong tech but weak consumer demand. He sees China as a defensive option if an AI bubble burst triggers a sharp U.S. selloff in 2027. via CNBC International TV
Nov 05
Expect another round of escalation in Iran mid-November from Trump: Eurasia Group
Expect another round of escalation in Iran mid-November from Trump: Eurasia Group Eurasia Group's Clayton Allen says that while the war with Iran is unpopular within the U.S. Republican, leaving the Middle East region without efforts or progress in addressing both Iran's nuclear program and control of the Strait is even more unpopular. via CNBC International TV
Nov 05

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