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Prediction Markets

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on December 31, 2026?

Above 6500
40% +5%
Between 6000 - 6500
35% -3%
Below 6000
25% -2%

22.8M volume

S&P 500's trajectory by late 2026 hinges on sustained corporate earnings growth, moderating inflation, and the Fed's interest rate path influencing equity valuations and market sentiment.

What will be the target range for the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) after the final FOMC meeting of 2026 (December)?

Below 3.50%
30% +4%
Between 3.50% - 4.50%
45% -2%
Above 4.50%
25% -2%

15.3M volume

The Fed's policy path by late 2026 will be dictated by inflation's persistence, labor market strength, and overall economic growth, influencing the pace and depth of interest rate adjustments.

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Market News

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Cooling Inflation, Surging Bank Earnings Power Stocks
Cooling Inflation, Surging Bank Earnings Power Stocks IBM stock suffers its worst day on record. via WSJ
Jul 14
Biopharmaceutical company Attovia Therapeutics files for US IPO
Biopharmaceutical company Attovia Therapeutics files for US IPO Biopharmaceutical company Attovia Therapeutics ​on Tuesday filed ‌for an initial public offering in the ​United States. via Reuters
Jul 14
Tuesday's Final Takeaways: Kevin Warsh Speaks as CPI Cools
Tuesday's Final Takeaways: Kevin Warsh Speaks as CPI Cools Inflation and the Fed take Marley Kayden's attention to close Tuesday's trading session. She talks about her perspective on the state of the economy as the June CPI print shows some signs of inflation easing. via Schwab Network
Jul 14
Strong Bank Earnings, Cool Inflation Data Lift U.S. Stocks
Strong Bank Earnings, Cool Inflation Data Lift U.S. Stocks U.S. stocks rose as blockbuster bank earnings and a cooler-than-expected inflation report boosted sentiment, while a profit warning from IBM weighed on the Dow Industrials and dragged software stocks lower. via WSJ
Jul 14
Big Banks' Profits Surge in Red-Hot Quarter
Big Banks' Profits Surge in Red-Hot Quarter Plus, lower-than-expected inflation prompted traders to sharply pull back their bets on rate hikes. via WSJ
Jul 14
U.S. strikes Iran before Hormuz Strait blockade restarts
U.S. strikes Iran before Hormuz Strait blockade restarts U.S. forces launched strikes against Iranian targets shortly before the U.S. resumed its naval blockade of Iranian ports in and around the Strait of Hormuz. via CNBC
Jul 14
Iran Is Attacking a Crucial Oil-Market Lifeline: Shuttle Runs
Iran Is Attacking a Crucial Oil-Market Lifeline: Shuttle Runs The back-and-forth voyages have been instrumental because only a small number of shipowners were willing to risk sending their tankers through Hormuz via WSJ
Jul 14
Brace for $4 gas again: How U.S.-Iran tensions are threatening to end the price break at the pump
Brace for $4 gas again: How U.S.-Iran tensions are threatening to end the price break at the pump Americans got some relief at the gas pump in recent weeks, enough to slow down inflation. That might not last long as the U.S. and Iran continue to vie for control of the Strait of Hormuz. via Market Watch
Jul 14
Trump Says US Will Be Doing A Lot of Deals With Iraq
Trump Says US Will Be Doing A Lot of Deals With Iraq President Donald Trump says the US and Iraq will be doing a lot of deals. “We're going to create a lot of jobs for both countries, and we're going to be taking out a lot of oil. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Jul 14
Semiconductor Index Rally Eyes New Highs as Elliott Wave Correction May Be Complete
Semiconductor Index Rally Eyes New Highs as Elliott Wave Correction May Be Complete SOX may have completed its Elliott Wave correction, with bulls targeting new highs if key support holds, while breakout confirmation remains essential. via FXEmpire
Jul 14
Wasserman: "No Relief in Sight" for Consumers, Fed Faces Political Tightrope
Wasserman: "No Relief in Sight" for Consumers, Fed Faces Political Tightrope A cooldown in CPI can't offset pressures from ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, argues Max Wasserman, who sees persistent headwinds hitting American consumers. "There's no relief in sight," he says, pointing to interest rates tentatively holding, rising gas prices, and high margin debt creating lasting pressures. via Schwab Network
Jul 14

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