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Prediction Markets

What will be the Federal Funds Rate target upper bound on December 31, 2026?

Below 3.75%
40% +8%
3.75% - 4.75%
45% -5%
Above 4.75%
15% -3%

22.3M volume

Persistent inflation or robust economic growth may limit Fed rate cuts. Conversely, a significant slowdown could accelerate easing. Labor market resilience is key.

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on June 30, 2027?

Above 6800
40% +7%
Between 5800 - 6800
40% -3%
Below 5800
20% -4%

15.8M volume

Corporate earnings, technology innovation, and the interest rate environment will heavily influence S&P 500 performance. Geopolitical stability also plays a role.

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Trending News

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Market News

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Can the US Defy Fiscal Gravity?
Can the US Defy Fiscal Gravity? David Bianco of DWS says long-term Treasury yields and real rates have climbed to some of their highest levels in nearly 25 years, but he argues inflation is not the main driver. The bigger issues are structural: US deficits above 6% of GDP, a rising total debt-to-GDP ratio, and the need to fund more borrowing domestically as foreign demand becomes less reliable. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Aug 29
Iran War Exposes Limits of US Military Endurance
Iran War Exposes Limits of US Military Endurance Six months into the US conflict with Iran, oil flows from the Persian Gulf have recovered to about 40% of prewar levels, but risks remain as the Strait of Hormuz stays constrained and the Navy faces mounting pressure on personnel, equipment and finances. Bloomberg News Economic Statecraft Lead Chris Kennedy and Bloomberg News Defense Reporter Jen Judson join hosts Christina Ruffini and Bailey Lipschultz on Bloomberg This Weekend and discuss the strain on US military readiness and why a new US deal involving Venezuelan oil fields is unlikely to deliver a significant near-term boost to global supply. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Aug 29
Where are all the new jobs? Hiring slows again — and it probably won't speed up soon.
Where are all the new jobs? Hiring slows again — and it probably won't speed up soon. The U.S. labor market seemed to be on upswing after a surge in new employment early this year — but a summer slowdown in hiring and fewer help-wanted ads suggest it won't get any easier to find a job. via Market Watch
Aug 29
Warsh Says Fed Must Act if Inflation Stays High
Warsh Says Fed Must Act if Inflation Stays High Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled the central bank is prepared to act if inflation fails to move clearly and quickly toward its 2% target, while describing the broader US economy as strong. On Bloomberg This Weekend Schwab Center Head of Macro Research & Strategy Kevin Gordon and Allsprings Global Investments Head of Equity Investments Ann Miletti say the remarks provided greater clarity on the Fed's approach, with upcoming inflation data likely to be critical to whether policymakers raise rates in September. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Aug 29
Corporate earnings have been growing at a blistering pace. Here's why that's not likely to last.
Corporate earnings have been growing at a blistering pace. Here's why that's not likely to last. That's because soaring growth rates — such as those seen in recent quarters — are more often than not followed by below-average growth rates, and vice versa. We therefore should resist the temptation to extrapolate the blazingly fast earnings growth of recent quarters into the indefinite future. via Market Watch
Aug 29

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