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Prediction Markets

What will be the target range for the Federal Funds Rate set by the FOMC after its final meeting in December 2026?

Below 3.50%
30% -3%
3.50% - 4.50%
45% +5%
Above 4.50%
25% -2%

16.8M volume

Market pricing of rate cuts depends on inflation trajectory, labor market strength, and economic growth. A sustained disinflationary trend or recession would drive deeper cuts.

What will be the closing yield of the US 10-year Treasury note on September 30, 2027?

Below 3.25%
20% -5%
3.25% - 4.25%
50% +8%
Above 4.25%
30% -3%

14.2M volume

Future 10-year yields will be heavily influenced by long-term inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet policy, and the magnitude of government debt issuance.

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Blue Origin's Latest Move Shows How It's Quietly Taking On SpaceX
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Oct 16
Wall Street's fear gauge is ripping. Traders see it going even higher
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Oct 16
We are Only 'Third Inning Relative to this AI Game,' Says Dan Ives
We are Only 'Third Inning Relative to this AI Game,' Says Dan Ives Three CoreWeave Inc. co-founders have sold $3.3 billion in company shares since last year's initial public offering, taking money off the table as rising credit risks and investor wariness around AI spending spark volatility in the stock. Dan Ives, Partner at Yorkville & Ives, discusses volatility relative to the AI trade and the outlook for stocks like Coreweave and Apple in particular. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Oct 16
Chip Equipment Stocks Notch Historic Losing Streaks. AI Spending Fears Are Taking a Toll.
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Oct 16
$7 Diesel Likely: Global Tensions, Winter Months Make Energy Risks More Widespread
$7 Diesel Likely: Global Tensions, Winter Months Make Energy Risks More Widespread There are no signs of relief for Americans at the gas pump, says @gasbuddy's Patrick De Haan. He turns to the numerous global disruptions to the energy trade keeping crude oil and diesel prices elevated. via Schwab Network
Oct 16
FAA set to approve 737 MAX 10 as soon as next week
FAA set to approve 737 MAX 10 as soon as next week FAA set to approve 737 MAX 10 as soon as next week via Reuters
Oct 16
U.S. budget deficit swells to almost $2 trillion for fiscal 2026, up 12% in a single year
U.S. budget deficit swells to almost $2 trillion for fiscal 2026, up 12% in a single year The Treasury Department said the U.S. budget deficit came in at nearly $2 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year. The U.S. officially recorded its 25th straight fiscal year operating at a deficit. via CNBC
Oct 16
The U.S. budget deficit just hit almost $2 trillion — and Washington isn't doing much about it
The U.S. budget deficit just hit almost $2 trillion — and Washington isn't doing much about it The U.S. federal government's annual budget deficit reached almost $2 trillion for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, the Treasury Department said Friday. The deficit figure of $1.992 trillion is the largest since 2021 and amounts to an estimated 6.2% of U.S. gross domestic product, according to Trea via Market Watch
Oct 16
U.S. crude oil tops $100 as Iran escalates Hormuz attacks, Ukraine vows to hit Russian refineries
U.S. crude oil tops $100 as Iran escalates Hormuz attacks, Ukraine vows to hit Russian refineries U.S. crude oil prices rose sharply Friday as Iran escalated its attacks in the Strait of Hormuz this week. via CNBC
Oct 16
Here's how the Fed should reveal its outlook for the economy
Here's how the Fed should reveal its outlook for the economy As Chairman Kevin Warsh looks to revamp the central bank's communication strategy, the dot plot is ripe for change. via Market Watch
Oct 16
Inflation Hits 4-Year High: What's Next for the Fed?
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Oct 16
Full Interview: Fed's Warsh on the Global Economy, AI
Full Interview: Fed's Warsh on the Global Economy, AI Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks to IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva at an IMF event in Bangkok, Thailand. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Oct 16
Elon Musk may have just taken a major step toward consolidating his empire
Elon Musk may have just taken a major step toward consolidating his empire Tesla's newly unveiled flying sports car, which features SpaceX rocket thrusters, could help Musk push for a merger between his two biggest companies, analysts say, via Market Watch
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