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Prediction Markets

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on December 31, 2026?

Above 6500
35% +8%
Between 5800 - 6500
45% -5%
Below 5800
20% -3%

15.8M volume

S&P 500 outlook hinges on sustained corporate earnings growth, moderating inflation, and the Fed's rate path. Geopolitical stability also crucial for market confidence.

What will be the upper bound of the Federal Funds Rate target range after the December 2026 FOMC meeting?

Below 3.75%
40% +7%
Between 3.75% - 4.75%
40% -6%
Above 4.75%
20% -1%

9.2M volume

Future Fed rate cuts depend on inflation's trajectory and labor market health. Persistent inflation or strong growth could delay cuts, while a slowdown might accelerate them.

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Market News

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Dow Jones: Industrial Average Hits Record as Fed Outlook Improves
Dow Jones: Industrial Average Hits Record as Fed Outlook Improves Dow Jones hit a record high as an Iran deal sent oil prices lower. See how falling crude boosted US stocks and tech shares. via FXEmpire
Jun 15
Trump is giving Warsh room to reshape the Fed
Trump is giving Warsh room to reshape the Fed Kevin Warsh will chair his first meeting of the Fed's rate-setting committee this week, with a press conference set for Wednesday. That meeting is widely expected to produce no change in interest rates, despite President Donald Trump's demands that the Fed keep cutting. via CNBC
Jun 15
Yields Resilient Despite U.S.-Iran Peace Hopes & What it Means for Fed
Yields Resilient Despite U.S.-Iran Peace Hopes & What it Means for Fed Resiliency in treasury yields against hopes U.S.-Iran peace talks will manifest is something @CharlesSchwab's Collin Martin attributes to much more than crude oil prices. He makes the case that yields will stay in the upper end of a new trading range due to other geopolitical factors. via Schwab Network
Jun 15
Apollo Global's Torsten Slok on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's approach to interest rates
Apollo Global's Torsten Slok on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's approach to interest rates Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, joins ‘Squawk on the Street' to discuss the latest market trends, his expectations for the Fed, and more. via CNBC Television
Jun 15
20 growth stocks priced as value stocks
20 growth stocks priced as value stocks A broad screen of U.S. stocks yields a list of companies trading at low valuations to expected earnings, with high projected revenue growth rates through 2028. The list of 20 stocks includes eight financial services companies, five healthcare names and four in the information technology sector. via Market Watch
Jun 15
We have yet to see demand destruction in the U.S. economy, says Mohamed El-Erian
We have yet to see demand destruction in the U.S. economy, says Mohamed El-Erian Mohamed El-Erian, The Wharton School Rene Kern professor and Allianz chief economic advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, impact of U.S.-Iran peace framework, SpaceX IPO, the Fed's two-day policy meeting, and more. via CNBC Television
Jun 15
Fed Decision Likely to Have No Dissenters, JPM's Berro Says
Fed Decision Likely to Have No Dissenters, JPM's Berro Says Kelsey Berro, fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, examines the bond market reaction to the announcement of an agreement between the US and Iran and looks ahead to this week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video? via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Jun 15
Week ahead: Wall Street braces for Warsh's Fed debut in holiday-shortened week
Week ahead: Wall Street braces for Warsh's Fed debut in holiday-shortened week Wall Street heads into a holiday-shortened week facing a pivotal test as investors weigh a new era at the Federal Reserve, fresh readings on consumer spending and inflation, and geopolitical developments that could shape energy markets and risk appetite. US markets will be closed Friday in observance of the Juneteenth holiday, compressing a week packed with market-moving events into four trading days. via Proactive Investors
Jun 15
US factory production flat in May; AI investment supporting manufacturing
US factory production flat in May; AI investment supporting manufacturing U.S. factory production was unexpectedly unchanged in May after gains in the prior months, which some economists said were related to businesses building up inventory in anticipation of shortages and higher prices due to the war in the Middle ​East. via Reuters
Jun 15

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