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Prediction Markets

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on December 31, 2026?

Above 6200
40% +5%
Between 5700 - 6200
35% -3%
Below 5700
25% -2%

15.8M volume

Strong corporate earnings growth and moderate inflation could support further market expansion. Geopolitical stability and technological advancements will be key drivers.

What will be the upper bound of the Federal Funds Rate target range after the final FOMC meeting of 2026 (expected December 18, 2026)?

Above 4.00%
30% -4%
Between 3.00% - 4.00%
45% +6%
Below 3.00%
25% -2%

12.1M volume

Persistent inflation and resilient economic data might limit aggressive rate cuts. However, a slowing labor market could prompt the Fed to ease monetary policy.

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Leak exposes payments made to hacking group that has extorted millions from law firms
Leak exposes payments made to hacking group that has extorted millions from law firms Leak data posted to the internet has exposed payments made to a hacking group known for extorting ​large sums of money from law firms, blockchain investigations ‌firm Chainalysis said on Wednesday. via Reuters
Oct 07
Options traders are betting on a dramatic drop in interest rates
Options traders are betting on a dramatic drop in interest rates Recent options activity points to bullish positioning for long-term bonds and utilities. via Market Watch
Oct 07
Americans heating their homes this winter face a stark cost divide
Americans heating their homes this winter face a stark cost divide EIA's winter outlook shows heating costs dropping for gas and propane homes, while electric and heating oil users face higher bills due to diverging fuel prices. via Fox Business
Oct 07
Fed signals HIGHER rates as inflation fears surge
Fed signals HIGHER rates as inflation fears surge A panel joins ‘Making Money' to discuss Federal Reserve policy minutes, rising inflation expectations, shifting interest rates and the economic impact of AI. #fox #media #breakingnews #us #usa #new #news #breaking #foxbusiness #makingmoney #federalreserve #fed #interestrates #inflation #economy #markets #stockmarket #wallstreet #gold #artificialintelligence #ai #productivity #monetarypolicy #investing via Fox Business
Oct 07
U.S. Stocks Fall as Treasury Yields Test Multidecade Highs
U.S. Stocks Fall as Treasury Yields Test Multidecade Highs U.S. stocks fell as volatility in Treasury yields sparked concerns about mortgage rates and corporate credit costs. via WSJ
Oct 07
Fed: Most participants said likely appropriate for another rate hike by year-end
Fed: Most participants said likely appropriate for another rate hike by year-end CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting. via CNBC Television
Oct 07
Why The Stock Market Could March Higher Even if Earnings Growth Slows
Why The Stock Market Could March Higher Even if Earnings Growth Slows Signs that the bull market could be slowing down are all around. Interest rate hikes, surging Treasury yields and the possibility that peak earnings growth could soon be in the rearview mirror all threaten the bull market. via Investopedia
Oct 07
‘SPIRALS INTO CRISIS': Trump turns up heat, Iran ADMITS economy in free fall
‘SPIRALS INTO CRISIS': Trump turns up heat, Iran ADMITS economy in free fall ‘The Big Money Show' discusses the fuel-price outlook as President Donald Trump weighs suspending the federal gas tax and Iran faces a deepening economic crisis. #foxbusiness #bigmoneyshow 00:00 | Trump Says Iran's Economy Is Struggling as Oil Flows Rise 00:34 | Trump Considers Federal Gas Tax Cut to Ease Pump Prices 01:42 | Oil Market Warning: Inflation Could Stay Persistent 03:22 | Iran's Economic Crisis Fuels Debate Over U.S. Pressure 05:52 | Iran's Admission Raises Questions About a Possible Deal via Fox Business
Oct 07
Oil, Yields and French Debt Keep Global Markets Under Pressure
Oil, Yields and French Debt Keep Global Markets Under Pressure Rising oil prices, elevated bond yields and renewed French fiscal concerns are pressuring global markets ahead of the Fed minutes. via FXEmpire
Oct 07
Supertanker chartered from Gulf Coast to China for $76 million, 10 times higher than pre-war level
Supertanker chartered from Gulf Coast to China for $76 million, 10 times higher than pre-war level The Alexandros was chartered by the trading firm Trafigura and is expected to load around Nov. 19, the source said. A normal rate for the route based on pre-war levels would be $7 million to $10 million. via CNBC
Oct 07
Stocks are increasingly their own best hedge. This chart shows why.
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Oct 07
Fed officials expect another rate hike will be needed this year: meeting minutes
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Oct 07
Fed Minutes Show Unity Behind September Rate Hike
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Oct 07

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