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Prediction Markets

What will be the upper bound of the Federal Funds Rate target range on June 30, 2027?

Above 4.50%
30% +5%
Between 3.50% - 4.50%
45% -3%
Below 3.50%
25% -2%

15.2M volume

Continued disinflation and potential economic slowdown could prompt the Fed to cut rates significantly by mid-2027 from current levels, aiming for a more neutral stance.

What will be the closing yield of the US 10-year Treasury bond on December 31, 2026?

Below 3.75%
35% +7%
Between 3.75% - 4.50%
40% -5%
Above 4.50%
25% -2%

9.8M volume

Persistent inflation pressures or strong economic growth could keep long-term yields elevated, while a significant economic downturn might drive them lower.

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Market News

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Fed's Warsh on Trump Collision Course as Rate Hike Looms
Fed's Warsh on Trump Collision Course as Rate Hike Looms The Federal Reserve faces mounting pressure to hike interest rates this week to tame elevated inflation, putting Chairman Kevin Warsh on a collision course with US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly pressed the central bank to slash rates. Bloomberg MLIV's Mark Cranfield previews Wednesday's decision, and also what to expect from the Bank of England and Bank of Japan. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 14
Congress votes tomorrow on the biggest crypto bill ever written.
Congress votes tomorrow on the biggest crypto bill ever written. Trump just caved on the ethics fight over the Clarity Act. The Senate takes its first real vote on the Clarity Act tomorrow, and Trump has conceded about 80% of the ethics limits he spent months resisting, including letting state attorneys general enforce them. via Yahoo Finance
Sep 14
Rapidan Energy CEO on how the Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown will affect the oil market
Rapidan Energy CEO on how the Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown will affect the oil market Rapidan Energy CEO Scott Modell joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how the Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown could affect oil prices, how geopolitical tensions are disrupting the oil market, and more. via CNBC Television
Sep 14
What Bond Yields Do After a Hiking Cycle Starts
What Bond Yields Do After a Hiking Cycle Starts The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, marking the first hike since July 2023. Higher bond yields could make government debt more attractive than stocks and increase borrowing costs for homebuyers. via Investopedia
Sep 14
Vista Equity exploring strategic options for financial software provider Finastra, sources say
Vista Equity exploring strategic options for financial software provider Finastra, sources say Private equity ‌firm Vista Equity Partners is exploring strategic options for Finastra which could include a potential sale of the software provider focused on financial institutions, four people familiar with the matter said. via Reuters
Sep 14
AI Slowdown Fears Shake Wall Street
AI Slowdown Fears Shake Wall Street Get a jump start on the US trading day with Dani Burger and Isabelle Lee on "Bloomberg Open Interest." Tech stocks slide as new warnings call for slowing the AI race, while Wall Street braces for the Fed with inflation raising the stakes. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 14
Trump says Ukraine and Russia agreed not to hit energy targets
Trump says Ukraine and Russia agreed not to hit energy targets President Donald Trump said Ukraine and Russia agreed to stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure. Trump blamed rapidly rising diesel prices on the ongoing war in Ukraine, not the U.S. war against Iran. via CNBC
Sep 14
GDP Buoys U.S. Economy Despite Fed's Likely Rate Hike, 10-Year Yield Taps 5%
GDP Buoys U.S. Economy Despite Fed's Likely Rate Hike, 10-Year Yield Taps 5% @CharlesSchwab's Kevin Gordon notes that the last time crude oil touched $105, a sharp downturn began in the commodity's price action. He sees a different story for crude today. via Schwab Network
Sep 14
What Amodei, Altman and Musk have said about AI risks, stoking 'doom' fears
What Amodei, Altman and Musk have said about AI risks, stoking 'doom' fears Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on Saturday called for a slowdown in the pace of advanced AI development, winning rare backing from SpaceXAI's Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam ​Altman and sparking a debate over AI "doomerism". via Reuters
Sep 14
Prediction Markets Hit Trading Record With NFL Season Underway
Prediction Markets Hit Trading Record With NFL Season Underway Kalshi dominated a record weekend for prediction markets as NFL trading surged, while DraftKings gained ground and sportsbooks found another way to profit. via Barrons
Sep 14
First Marijuana, Then Peptides. Why Psychedelics Are Wall Street's Next Big Trip.
First Marijuana, Then Peptides. Why Psychedelics Are Wall Street's Next Big Trip. Definium Therapeutics advances the case for medical LSD after reporting positive late-stage trial data for its experimental drug, DT120. via Barrons
Sep 14

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