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Prediction Markets

What will be the closing yield of the US 10-Year Treasury Note on December 31, 2026?

Below 3.75%
30% +5%
Between 3.75% - 4.75%
45% -3%
Above 4.75%
25% -2%

15.8M volume

Persistent inflation or higher fiscal deficits could keep yields elevated, while disinflationary forces or recession fears may drive them lower.

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on December 31, 2026?

Above 6500
45% +7%
Between 5500 - 6500
35% -5%
Below 5500
20% -2%

22.1M volume

Corporate earnings growth, driven by AI and tech innovation, along with the interest rate environment, will largely determine market direction.

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BTCUSD
Bitcoin
BTCUSD · CRYPTO
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ETHUSD · CRYPTO
$2,662.28
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SOLUSD
Solana
SOLUSD · CRYPTO
$117.76
-0.54%
XRPUSD
XRP
XRPUSD · CRYPTO
$1.47
-1.46%

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Market News

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U.S. Stocks Rise as Jobs Report Tempers Rate Outlook
U.S. Stocks Rise as Jobs Report Tempers Rate Outlook U.S. stocks ended the week on an upswing after slowing jobs growth tempered expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike rates again later this month. via WSJ
Oct 02
Powell Probe Isn't Being Reopened, Blanche Says
Powell Probe Isn't Being Reopened, Blanche Says The US Justice Department isn't reopening a criminal investigation into former Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for cost overruns related to the central bank's building renovation project. During an interview with Bloomberg's Myles Miller, Attorney General Todd Blanche says the department didn't rule out continuing to look into the project's oversight and potentially take action if evidence of wrongdoing came to light. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Oct 02
Is October scary for stocks? A bear and a bull debate bond yields, AI and earnings
Is October scary for stocks? A bear and a bull debate bond yields, AI and earnings Is October as scary for stocks as its reputation? Clockwork Tower Group Chief Macro Strategist Eric Wallerstein says he's the most bearish he's been outside of COVID, pointing to two wars, high commodity prices and global rate hikes, and warns the bond market may break before AI does after a rough stretch for European bonds. via Yahoo Finance
Oct 02
DOJ says it will not reopen criminal probe into former Fed Chair Powell
DOJ says it will not reopen criminal probe into former Fed Chair Powell DOJ says it will not reopen criminal probe into former Fed Chair Powell via CNBC
Oct 02
Community banks sue US regulator over crypto firm charters
Community banks sue US regulator over crypto firm charters A trade organization representing ​community banks sued a ‌US bank regulator Friday, claiming that its decision to ​grant limited bank ​charters to firms that primarily ⁠engage in crypto ​products exceeds its regulatory ​authority. via Reuters
Oct 02
Trading stocks as yields rise: Here's what investors need to know
Trading stocks as yields rise: Here's what investors need to know The Investment Committee reveals their portfolio strategy as yields continue to rise. via CNBC Television
Oct 02
Bond Yields Are 'Juicy,' Says Apollo's Slok
Bond Yields Are 'Juicy,' Says Apollo's Slok Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, joins Scarlet Fu an Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Money." He says the yields you can get now in fixed income are "juicy. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Oct 02
FAA Determines 737 MAX Software Glitch Doesn't Pose Safety Issue
FAA Determines 737 MAX Software Glitch Doesn't Pose Safety Issue Software problem had raised safety concerns in the airline industry, panel of regulators reviewed. via WSJ
Oct 02
Need To Think More About Fixed Income: Slok
Need To Think More About Fixed Income: Slok Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, joins Scarlet Fu an Tom Keene on "Bloomberg Money." They discuss economic tailwinds, inflation, the bond market, AI, and private markets. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Oct 02
The Bond Market Is Normalizing
The Bond Market Is Normalizing What rising correlations could mean for portfolios A mix of stocks and bonds typically helps diversify a portfolio, since stock prices often rise when bond prices fall and vice versa. But lately, that diversification benefit has weakened. via ETF Trends
Oct 02
Kevin Hassett says diesel reserve release could have ‘massive positive effect' as G7 reaches deal
Kevin Hassett says diesel reserve release could have ‘massive positive effect' as G7 reaches deal White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett detailed the effort to urge European allies to release refined diesel reserves to ease fuel prices. via Fox Business
Oct 02
The Stock Market Is Looking Ahead to Earnings Season—and It Likes What It Sees
The Stock Market Is Looking Ahead to Earnings Season—and It Likes What It Sees Micron Technology's blockbuster report on Sept. 30 gave the market a glimpse of what is yet to come. via Barrons
Oct 02
How much higher can bond yields rise — and what does it mean for stocks?
How much higher can bond yields rise — and what does it mean for stocks? Also in Weekend Reads: Adjustable-rate mortgage loans, Gen Z entrepreneurs and advice from the Moneyist. via Market Watch
Oct 02
Divergent Targets Faster, Cheaper Defense Production
Divergent Targets Faster, Cheaper Defense Production Divergent CEO Lukas Czinger says advanced manufacturing can help the Pentagon build weapons faster, cheaper and at far greater scale. Working with Lockheed Martin's Skunk Works and other defense contractors, Divergent uses technologies including 3D printing to move from engineering inputs to flight-ready hardware in under three months. via Bloomberg Technology
Oct 02
Why bond investors quickly lost their enthusiasm for weak labor figures
Why bond investors quickly lost their enthusiasm for weak labor figures A weak U.S. jobs report did what bad news hadn't done in a while: It made U.S. debt look like a safe haven again — albeit briefly. via Market Watch
Oct 02

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