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Prediction Markets

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on December 31, 2026?

Above 7000
30% +8%
Between 6500 - 7000
45% -5%
Below 6500
25% -3%

28.3M volume

Sustained corporate earnings growth and a stable interest rate environment could drive significant index appreciation, barring major economic shocks. Valuations remain a key factor.

What will be the upper bound of the Federal Funds Rate target range on December 31, 2026?

Above 4.75%
35% +6%
Between 4.00% - 4.75%
40% -3%
Below 4.00%
25% -3%

15.1M volume

Inflation trajectory and labor market strength will dictate the Fed's pace. A soft landing could allow gradual cuts, while persistent inflation might hold rates higher longer.

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Core CPI Hikes Ahead of FOMC Meeting
Core CPI Hikes Ahead of FOMC Meeting A key gauge of US consumer prices rose by more than expected last month, bolstering the case for Federal Reserve officials to raise interest rates next week. Bloomberg Intelligence US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey and Bloomberg News Marco Strategist Frank Monkam discuss how the oil market is moving and what it all means for the Fed ahead of its September meeting next week. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 11
Cramer's week ahead: Falling oil could help stocks but Fed is the next big test
Cramer's week ahead: Falling oil could help stocks but Fed is the next big test CNBC's Jim Cramer said falling oil prices helped fuel Friday's market rebound, but warned that renewed conflict in the Middle East could quickly reverse that relief. He said next week's Federal Reserve meeting will be the next test for stocks, with investors closely watching how longer-term Treasury yields respond to a potential rate hike. via CNBC
Sep 11
Cyberattack by Rogue AI Swarm Stokes Fears of Out-of-Control Agents
Cyberattack by Rogue AI Swarm Stokes Fears of Out-of-Control Agents The incident, which wasn't previously linked to OpenAI, happened two months before July's Hugging Face hack. via WSJ
Sep 11
Private Equity Daily: HarbourVest Banks $2.4 Billion
Private Equity Daily: HarbourVest Banks $2.4 Billion Plus: Apollo-backed Brightspeed is turning to an asset-backed securitization to keep financing its fiber build-out. via WSJ
Sep 11
Claude Misused for Weapons Research
Claude Misused for Weapons Research On the latest episode of the early edition of Balance of power, David Gura and Christina Ruffini speak with Mike Shepard, Bloomberg Senior Editor for Technology and Strategic Industries;  Rick Davis, Partner at Stonecourt Capital and Bloomberg Politics Contributor & Jeanne Sheehan Zaino, Democracy Visiting Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center and Bloomberg Politics Contributor. They also speak with Nicholas Burns, former US Ambassador to China and NATO, and Brigadier General Leland Blanchard II, Interim Commanding General of the District of Columbia National Guard. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 11
Wall Street Cheers Clarity on Fed Outlook—Even if It Means Higher Rates
Wall Street Cheers Clarity on Fed Outlook—Even if It Means Higher Rates Stocks rose and bonds steadied after Friday's warm CPI report took ‘a lot of the guesswork' out of next week's Fed decision. via WSJ
Sep 11
Saudi Arabia Shuts Key Pipeline, Adding Pressure to Oil Supplies
Saudi Arabia Shuts Key Pipeline, Adding Pressure to Oil Supplies The 750-mile pipeline carries crude from eastern Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, avoiding shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. via Barrons
Sep 11
JPMorgan cut off Situational Awareness lending after AI losses, FT reports
JPMorgan cut off Situational Awareness lending after AI losses, FT reports JPMorgan Chase ​cut ‌off its lending ​activity ​for Leopold ⁠Aschenbrenner's ​hedge fund ​Situational Awareness after ​large ​losses tied to ‌his ⁠AI bets, the ​Financial ​Times ⁠reported on ​Friday. via Reuters
Sep 11
Friday's Final Takeaways: China, U.S. AI Divergence as DeepSeek Releases New Model
Friday's Final Takeaways: China, U.S. AI Divergence as DeepSeek Releases New Model The U.S. and China's AI strategies are diverging, according to Sam Vadas, who points to DeepSeek's new model as the newest example behind the thesis. This, as Moonshot AI targets a ramp up in ARR. via Schwab Network
Sep 11
How LV Lost Millions by Winning a Trademark Dispute in China
How LV Lost Millions by Winning a Trademark Dispute in China Louis Vuitton is facing a growing backlash in China after its trademark dispute with local tea chain Molly Tea sparked a wave of social media criticism. The controversy's adding pressure on LVMH, which is already dealing with a broader slowdown in China, one of its biggest markets. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 11
Inflation Comes In Hot
Inflation Comes In Hot Plus, Iran-backed Houthis take control of an oil chokepoint and consumer sentiment falls via WSJ
Sep 11

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