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Prediction Markets

What will be the upper bound of the Federal Funds Target Rate on December 31, 2026?

Below 3.75%
25% +5%
Between 3.75% - 4.75%
55% -3%
Above 4.75%
20% -2%

15.8M volume

Inflation trajectory and labor market strength will dictate the Fed's easing path. Geopolitical stability and productivity growth are key for the higher range.

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on June 30, 2027?

Above 7000
35% +7%
Between 6000 - 7000
45% -5%
Below 6000
20% -2%

22.3M volume

Corporate earnings growth, interest rate policy, and the impact of AI adoption will be crucial drivers. Geopolitical risks could limit upside or trigger downside.

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Trending News

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Forget gasoline: Why the price surge in this under-the-radar fuel is the real threat to the U.S. economy
Forget gasoline: Why the price surge in this under-the-radar fuel is the real threat to the U.S. economy As investors fret about gasoline, diesel prices have been rising and are threatening to cause even more economic destruction. via Market Watch
Jul 18
How a homegrown Chinese chip maker became the memory industry's biggest wild card
How a homegrown Chinese chip maker became the memory industry's biggest wild card As ChangXin Memory Technologies gears up for a breakout public listing, the chip maker is eyeing the turf held by Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung. via Market Watch
Jul 18
Chinese AI Model Raises Pressure on US Spending
Chinese AI Model Raises Pressure on US Spending At the 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference China's Moonshot AI unveiled its Kimi K3 model, intensifying concerns that Chinese developers are rapidly narrowing the AI gap with US rivals while offering lower cost. Bloomberg News China Correspondent Minmin Low and Bloomberg News Technology and Strategic Industries Senior Editor Mike Shepard join Bloomberg This Weekend and discuss how more open models are forcing investors to reassess massive spending on AI infrastructure. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Jul 18
'WarshGPT': How Wall Street is adapting to the Fed's new era of communication
'WarshGPT': How Wall Street is adapting to the Fed's new era of communication Several investment firms are preparing to have less public guidance from the Federal Reserve. Some have turned to artificial intelligence for help in analyzing the central bank as a result. via CNBC
Jul 18
Will the Fed hike interest rates this month?
Will the Fed hike interest rates this month? Kevin Warsh's testimony to Congress “offered some heat but not a lot of new light” on the outlook for interest rates, one economist said. via Market Watch
Jul 18

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