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Prediction Markets

What will be the target range for the Federal Funds Rate after the December 2026 FOMC meeting?

Below 3.50%
25% -3%
3.50% - 4.50%
50% +5%
Above 4.50%
25% -2%

22.1M volume

Future Fed policy will hinge on inflation trajectory and economic growth. Sustained disinflation could lead to rate cuts, while persistent price pressures may maintain higher rates.

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on December 31, 2027?

Above 6500
40% +4%
Between 5500 - 6500
45% -2%
Below 5500
15% -2%

31.8M volume

Corporate earnings growth, tech sector innovation, and the broader economic outlook will drive S&P 500 performance. Interest rate policy remains a key determinant for valuations.

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SOLUSD · CRYPTO
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Market News

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Prediction Markets Should Be Regulated as Gambling, Appeals Court Says
Prediction Markets Should Be Regulated as Gambling, Appeals Court Says The outcome contradicted an earlier appeals court decision. Federal regulators said the split rulings called for resolution by the Supreme Court. via NYTimes
Aug 28
Friday's Final Takeaways: Consumer Pressure Persists as Warsh Tilts Hawkish
Friday's Final Takeaways: Consumer Pressure Persists as Warsh Tilts Hawkish The Fed's inflation fight appears to move the interest rate outlook toward a hawkish state, as per Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's tone at Jackson Hole. Sam Vadas explains why she's watching the U.S. consumer heading into next week. via Schwab Network
Aug 28
Fmr. IMF Chief Economist Rajan: Fed might have to act because it's been too long
Fmr. IMF Chief Economist Rajan: Fed might have to act because it's been too long Raghuram Rajan, a former IMF chief economist and Bank of India governor, joins CNBC's Steve Liesman at Jackson Hole to talk the Fed's approach to inflation, the need to raise interest rates, Fed Chair Warsh's speech, and more. via CNBC Television
Aug 28
Markets Brace for Possible Rate Hike After Kevin Warsh's Hawkish Turn
Markets Brace for Possible Rate Hike After Kevin Warsh's Hawkish Turn Bond yields rise, stocks edge lower after the Fed chairman emphasizes inflation concern. via WSJ
Aug 28
Warsh Speaks and Rate-Cut Odds Rise
Warsh Speaks and Rate-Cut Odds Rise That's one of the takeaways from Chairman Kevin Warsh's first speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium today. These were the most substantive comments made by the Fed chairman since he took over this spring, though Warsh stopped short of saying whether he would support raising interest rates next month. via WSJ
Aug 28
'HAWKISH': Warsh puts inflation FIGHT at center of Fed's mission
'HAWKISH': Warsh puts inflation FIGHT at center of Fed's mission 'The Big Money Show' panel analyzes Chair of the Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh's comments on inflation and stable prices. #foxbusiness #fox #kevinwarsh #federalreserve #fed #inflation #economy #interestrates #bigmoneyshow #wallstreet #investing #stocks #businessnews #macroeconomics #usnews via Fox Business
Aug 28
Krugman on Warsh: "We got a generic Fed chairman" and that's fine
Krugman on Warsh: "We got a generic Fed chairman" and that's fine Hours after Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole address as Fed chairman, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman gives his read: the speech was hawkish relative to what Warsh had been saying, he stayed firmly with the standard inflation measure after floating alternatives, and he offered nothing to anyone hoping for rate cuts. Krugman also flags a contradiction he says is sitting in plain sight, between Warsh ruling out unconventional policy at the Fed and what the Treasury is doing with long-term bond purchases. via Yahoo Finance
Aug 28
47% Saw Real Wages Decline Due To Inflation: Richardson
47% Saw Real Wages Decline Due To Inflation: Richardson Nela Richardson, chief economist & ESG officer with ADP and Bloomberg contributor, joins Scarlet Fu on "Bloomberg Money." They discuss how all parts of the economy are getting more expensive and how Americans are handling rising prices. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Aug 28
Threat of a Fed Rate Hike Is Changing the Leadership in Markets, Slimmon Says
Threat of a Fed Rate Hike Is Changing the Leadership in Markets, Slimmon Says Andrew Slimmon, managing director and head of applied equity advisors at Morgan Stanley, says he's happy with what Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said during his speech at Jackson Hole and he remains consistent. Slimmon says the threat of an interest rate hike is causing a change in leadership in stock markets. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Aug 28
Mark Walter's insurer Delaware Life sees two banks pause sale of its products amid probes
Mark Walter's insurer Delaware Life sees two banks pause sale of its products amid probes Two banks have paused selling products of Mark Walter's Delaware Life amid concerns of federal probes into how the insurer's parent company reported about $20 billion in assets that were affiliated with other entities controlled by the billionaire Los Angeles Dodgers owner. The pause by the banks, Truist Financial Corp. and Fifth Third Bancorp, came to light Friday, two days after Walter's holding company, TWG Global, issued a statement saying "there has been no fraud" at Delaware Life and its affiliated company, Clear Spring Life and Annuity. via CNBC
Aug 28
U.S. Stocks Fall After Warsh Speech Boosts Bond Yields
U.S. Stocks Fall After Warsh Speech Boosts Bond Yields U.S. stocks edged lower after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh indicated that the central bank's fight against inflation was not yet complete. via WSJ
Aug 28
Why the Trade War and Iran War Aren't Stopping the Stock Market Rally
Why the Trade War and Iran War Aren't Stopping the Stock Market Rally After months of military and trade conflicts, investors might expect an impact on the stock market. It hasn't happened. via Barrons
Aug 28

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