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Prediction Markets

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on December 31, 2026?

Above 6500
40% +5%
Between 6000 - 6500
35% -3%
Below 6000
25% -2%

17.8M volume

Anticipates robust corporate earnings driven by technological advancements and stable economic growth, with potential for easing monetary policy through 2025-2026.

What will be the target range for the Federal Funds Rate after the December 2026 FOMC meeting?

Above 4.25%
25% -4%
Between 3.25% - 4.25%
45% +6%
Below 3.25%
30% -2%

11.5M volume

Reflects an expectation of moderate inflation and a stabilizing labor market, allowing the Fed to gradually normalize rates without triggering a recession.

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Market News

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Don't fear a summer stock crash: Market history shows this massive spring rally isn't a trap
Don't fear a summer stock crash: Market history shows this massive spring rally isn't a trap The stock market's momentum is not built on borrowed time. via Market Watch
May 15
US Trade Rep. Greer on future of US-China trade
US Trade Rep. Greer on future of US-China trade “I haven't yet met a country where we've imposed tariffs and said, ‘thank you—we love these tariffs.'” As Trump and Xi wrap up their Beijing summit, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer tells Annmarie Hordern he expects China to commit to billions in US farm purchases — but says Section 301 tariffs, however unpopular, are here to stay. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
May 15
Jerome Powell's tenure as Fed chair comes to a close
Jerome Powell's tenure as Fed chair comes to a close A look at Fed Chair Jerome Powell's tenure as it comes to a close. via CNBC Television
May 15
10 stocks to protect you from the risky AI trade
10 stocks to protect you from the risky AI trade Also in Weekend Reads: Tips for selling a home, the bond market's reaction as Kevin Warsh takes over at the Fed and advice from the Moneyist. via Market Watch
May 15
Friday Fumble Dings Another Strong Week for Stocks
Friday Fumble Dings Another Strong Week for Stocks The bond market seems worried about oil prices and inflation, implying investors foresee a potential interest-rate hike ahead. via Barrons
May 15
Trump vindicated as OPEC faces collapse following UAE departure
Trump vindicated as OPEC faces collapse following UAE departure The UAE's departure from OPEC could trigger a domino effect, experts say, potentially leading to lower gasoline prices within the next year or so. via Fox Business
May 15
11 Stocks to Play the Biggest Energy Supply Shock Ever, According to Our Energy Roundtable Pros
11 Stocks to Play the Biggest Energy Supply Shock Ever, According to Our Energy Roundtable Pros Oil and gas production won't rebound quickly even if the Iran war ends soon. Why Devon Energy, Baker Hughes, and other stocks can weather the storm. via Barrons
May 15
Rising Rates Could Spell Trouble for Dividend Stocks
Rising Rates Could Spell Trouble for Dividend Stocks Higher Treasury yields are creating headwinds for dividend-paying sectors like utilities, REITs, and consumer income stocks, though investors may avoid a repeat of the 2022 selloff. via Barrons
May 15
SocGen Says 'Unhinged' Yields Pose Early Test for Warsh
SocGen Says 'Unhinged' Yields Pose Early Test for Warsh Treasury yields are starting to become "unhinged,'' which will be a challenge for incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, according to Subadra Rajappa, the head of research for Societe Generale Americas. She speaks with Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
May 15
Traders now see next Fed interest rate move as a hike following inflation surge
Traders now see next Fed interest rate move as a hike following inflation surge Following a week of surprisingly high inflation readings, traders in the fed funds futures market are pricing in an interest rate increase as soon as December, with a much higher certainty into the early part of 2027. A December hike has a nearly 51% probability, while a move higher by January carries about a 60% probability with March coming in at better than 71%. via CNBC
May 15
Scott Melker: "Every Fed chair makes mistakes"
Scott Melker: "Every Fed chair makes mistakes" Today marks Jerome Powell's last day as Fed chair. Scott Melker shines a light on his legacy. via Yahoo Finance
May 15

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