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Prediction Markets

What will be the target range for the Federal Funds Rate set by the FOMC after its December 2026 meeting?

Below 3.25%
35% +3%
3.25% - 4.25%
40% -2%
Above 4.25%
25% -1%

15.8M volume

Inflationary pressures and labor market strength will dictate the Fed's terminal rate. A soft landing could see gradual cuts, while persistent inflation or renewed growth may keep rates elevated.

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on December 31, 2027?

Above 7000
45% +5%
Between 6000 - 7000
35% -3%
Below 6000
20% -2%

22.1M volume

Corporate earnings growth, AI adoption, and monetary policy will be key drivers. A strong economy and sustained tech innovation could push markets higher, despite geopolitical risks.

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Market News

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The Morning Risk Report: Tech, Social Media Companies Brace for Deepfake Scrutiny in Midterms Run-Up
The Morning Risk Report: Tech, Social Media Companies Brace for Deepfake Scrutiny in Midterms Run-Up Plus: Drug middlemen to share payment details, and Elizabeth Warren demands Anthropic answers. via WSJ
Oct 29
Nasdaq futures plunge 260 points: 5 things to know before Wall Street opens
Nasdaq futures plunge 260 points: 5 things to know before Wall Street opens US stock futures were mixed on Thursday, with technology shares under pressure after Alphabet's results revived concerns about the cost of artificial intelligence. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 260 points, or 0.87% and S&P 500 futures slipped 0.28%, while Dow futures were trading flat. via Invezz
Oct 29
The Fed held off on a rate hike. Today's GDP and inflation reports could make waiting harder.
The Fed held off on a rate hike. Today's GDP and inflation reports could make waiting harder. GDP and inflation figures arrive together at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. via Market Watch
Oct 29
Lilly raises outlook for third time this year as Zepbound sales soar.
Lilly raises outlook for third time this year as Zepbound sales soar. The drug continues do dominate the market for prescription weight-loss drugs in the U.S. via Market Watch
Oct 29
St James's Place reports lower Q3 net inflows amid uncertainty ahead of UK budget
St James's Place reports lower Q3 net inflows amid uncertainty ahead of UK budget British wealth manager St. via Reuters
Oct 29
In Moving Gradually, Fed Risks Having to Play Catch-Up to Quell Inflation
In Moving Gradually, Fed Risks Having to Play Catch-Up to Quell Inflation Federal Reserve officials are expected to restart rate increases in December, but the cadence of additional moves will depend on the data. via NYTimes
Oct 29
Analysis: Warsh is learning to wield the Fed's power without showing his hand
Analysis: Warsh is learning to wield the Fed's power without showing his hand The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its October meeting. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh declined to commit to future moves but said financial conditions were not tight. via CNBC
Oct 29
Nasdaq futures slide as mixed Big Tech results test AI trade
Nasdaq futures slide as mixed Big Tech results test AI trade Nasdaq futures dropped on Thursday as mixed ‌earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft left investors weighing the payoff from heavy AI spending, with focus also on an inflation reading a day after the via Reuters
Oct 29
Eurozone Bond Yields Fall Ahead of ECB Decision; French OATs Outperform
Eurozone Bond Yields Fall Ahead of ECB Decision; French OATs Outperform Eurozone government bond yields fell at open, tracking their U.S. peers, as markets prepare for the ECB rate decision. The 10-year French OAT outperformed. via WSJ
Oct 29
European shares inch up ahead of ECB as earnings remain in focus
European shares inch up ahead of ECB as earnings remain in focus European shares ‌inched up on Thursday ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting, while investors assessed a fresh ​batch of upbeat earnings reports. via Reuters
Oct 29
Oil prices fall as renewed U.S.-Iran peace efforts ease supply fears
Oil prices fall as renewed U.S.-Iran peace efforts ease supply fears Oil prices declined Thursday as prospects of renewed peace negotiations eased fears of supply disruptions stemming from escalating tensions in the Middle East. The pullback followed reports that U.S. Vice President JD Vance had reached out to Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei in an attempt to restart peace negotiations, WSJ reported. via CNBC
Oct 29
Bank Stocks Are Having a Tough Time. This Analyst Is Betting on 2 Names.
Bank Stocks Are Having a Tough Time. This Analyst Is Betting on 2 Names. Erika Najarian, the U.S. large-cap bank analyst at UBS, favors banks with lots of excess capital. What the midterms could mean for the industry. via Barrons
Oct 29
U.S. Treasury Yields Fall as Investors Digest Fed Meet, Focus Shifts to ECB
U.S. Treasury Yields Fall as Investors Digest Fed Meet, Focus Shifts to ECB Treasury yields dropped in Asian trade as markets digested the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, with the focus now shifting to the European Central Bank's meeting. via WSJ
Oct 29
Oil Prices Fall as Traders Weigh U.S.-Iran Diplomacy
Oil Prices Fall as Traders Weigh U.S.-Iran Diplomacy U.S. Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in an effort to revive peace negotiations, The Wall Street Journal reported. via WSJ
Oct 29

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