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Prediction Markets

What will be the upper bound of the Federal Funds Rate target range on June 30, 2027?

Above 4.50%
30% +5%
Between 3.50% - 4.50%
45% -3%
Below 3.50%
25% -2%

15.2M volume

Continued disinflation and potential economic slowdown could prompt the Fed to cut rates significantly by mid-2027 from current levels, aiming for a more neutral stance.

What will be the closing yield of the US 10-year Treasury bond on December 31, 2026?

Below 3.75%
35% +7%
Between 3.75% - 4.50%
40% -5%
Above 4.50%
25% -2%

9.8M volume

Persistent inflation pressures or strong economic growth could keep long-term yields elevated, while a significant economic downturn might drive them lower.

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Market News

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‘EXISTENTIAL THREATS': AI fears spread after researcher issues GRIM warning
‘EXISTENTIAL THREATS': AI fears spread after researcher issues GRIM warning ‘The Big Money Show' reacts to a former Anthropic researcher issuing a dire warning about the AI race as Big Tech pours billions into artificial intelligence and infrastructure. #foxbusiness #bigmoneyshow 0:03 - Warning of Uncontrolled AI 0:25 - The Silicon Valley AI Debate 1:26 - Skepticism Over AI Whistleblowers 3:00 - Fearmongering vs. via Fox Business
Sep 13
Opinion | The Great AI Slowdown?
Opinion | The Great AI Slowdown? Nothing is now stopping Anthropic or OpenAI from ‘pacing the frontier' on their own. via WSJ
Sep 13
President Trump made a surprise trade announcement at the Irish Open golf tournament, saying he plans to rescind the U.S.'s 10% tariff on Irish whiskey
President Trump made a surprise trade announcement at the Irish Open golf tournament, saying he plans to rescind the U.S.'s 10% tariff on Irish whiskey The president closed out his weekend visit to Ireland by making the announcement at the Irish Open golf tournament. via WSJ
Sep 13
Avelo CEO warns airfares may rise as fuel prices hit 'uncomfortably high' levels
Avelo CEO warns airfares may rise as fuel prices hit 'uncomfortably high' levels The Avelo Airlines CEO said that rising fuel costs have become the airline industry's latest challenge as oil prices surge on Middle East tensions. via Fox Business
Sep 13
Fed rate hikes won't bring down gas prices. Why the bond market is pushing for them anyway.
Fed rate hikes won't bring down gas prices. Why the bond market is pushing for them anyway. The 10-year Treasury yield is sitting on the doorstep of 5%, and that's a warning sign for stocks. via Market Watch
Sep 13
A fresh midterm headache for the GOP just hit a national record
A fresh midterm headache for the GOP just hit a national record Diesel prices hit a record $6.20 per gallon as the Iran war disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to raise costs across the U.S. supply chain. via Fox Business
Sep 13
Stock Futures Poised to Trade Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
Stock Futures Poised to Trade Ahead of Fed Rate Decision Investors will be eagerly awaiting what Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh says. via Barrons
Sep 13
Washington scrambles to meet calls for AI guardrails while the window to act closes
Washington scrambles to meet calls for AI guardrails while the window to act closes Lawmakers are seeking to address calls for artificial intelligence guardrails after renewed warnings about the technology's risks. The leaders of top AI frontier companies Anthropic, OpenAI and xAI made stunning admissions in recent days that AI is advancing too fast. via CNBC
Sep 13
Refining Bottleneck Sends Diesel to Record High
Refining Bottleneck Sends Diesel to Record High Record diesel prices are exposing a critical constraint in global energy markets as refinery disruptions abroad collide with limited capacity in the US. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan is on Bloomberg This Weekend and says producing more crude alone won't solve the problem because refiners are already operating near their limits, leaving little room to boost gasoline and diesel supplies quickly. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 13
Investors See AI Slowdown as a Temporary Step
Investors See AI Slowdown as a Temporary Step Calls to slow AI development may create near-term uncertainty for markets, but BMO Capital Markets' Jennifer Lee is on Bloomberg This Weekend and says the technology's infrastructure, investment and demand are unlikely to reverse course. She says concerns about jobs, data centers and profitability could temper the pace of growth, even as labor shortages and the push for automation keep AI's longer-term economic expansion intact. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 13
Corporate profit forecasts are topping expectations to an unusual degree. AI is a big reason why.
Corporate profit forecasts are topping expectations to an unusual degree. AI is a big reason why. The information-technology sector stands out when it comes to issuing upbeat earnings outlooks. via Market Watch
Sep 13

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