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Prediction Markets

What will be the target range for the Federal Funds Rate by December 31, 2026?

Below 3.75%
25% +3%
3.75% to 5.00%
50% -2%
Above 5.00%
25% -1%

15.8M volume

Persistent inflation or unexpected economic weakness will dictate the Fed's pace. Markets anticipate gradual cuts, but a hawkish pivot on sticky prices remains a risk by late 2026.

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on December 31, 2026?

Above 6300
40% +5%
Between 5300 - 6300
40% -3%
Below 5300
20% -2%

28.3M volume

Equity performance hinges on sustained corporate earnings growth and manageable inflation. While AI momentum supports growth, potential recessionary pressures or higher rates could cap gains.

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Bitcoin
BTCUSD · CRYPTO
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-0.34%
ETHUSD
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ETHUSD · CRYPTO
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+0.04%
SOLUSD
Solana
SOLUSD · CRYPTO
$101.10
-0.51%
XRPUSD
XRP
XRPUSD · CRYPTO
$1.38
-1.03%

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Market News

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Trump warns Tehran over Pickaxe Mountain activity; U.S.-Iran exchange attacks on ships near Hormuz
Trump warns Tehran over Pickaxe Mountain activity; U.S.-Iran exchange attacks on ships near Hormuz Trump warns Iran against activity at suspected nuclear site Pickaxe Mountain. Satellite imagery shows a surge in construction activity at a site just two kilometers away from Iran's heavily damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility. via CNBC
Sep 10
With the copper price surfing all-time highs, here's what one CEO thinks about the sector long term
With the copper price surfing all-time highs, here's what one CEO thinks about the sector long term While there's a bear case to be made on copper if the AI trade blows up, if Trump eschews tariffs or if peace descends over the Persian Gulf, the long-term rationale for higher prices is solid, a listed copper producer executive says. via Market Watch
Sep 10
Treasuries Dismiss President's Promise: 3-Minutes MLIV
Treasuries Dismiss President's Promise: 3-Minutes MLIV Anna Edwards, Guy Johnson, Tom Mackenzie and Mark Cudmore break down today's key themes for analysts and investors on "Bloomberg: The Opening Trade." Chapters: 00:00:00 - MLIV 00:00:02 - Trump Promises $5,000 if GOP Wins Midterms 00:01:44 - Bond Yields 00:02:46 - ECB Rate Decision -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video? via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 10
UK's THG first-half profit more than doubles, warns of Q3 tariff hit
UK's THG first-half profit more than doubles, warns of Q3 tariff hit British e-commerce group THG PLC on Thursday reported its first-half core earnings had ​more than doubled, led by price hikes and ‌strong growth at its Myprotein nutrition brand, but warned that quarterly revenue growth would slow sharply due to new EU ​import duties. via Reuters
Sep 10
Oil Tops $100 as Iran Vows to Escalate War, Trump Says US Will Win
Oil Tops $100 as Iran Vows to Escalate War, Trump Says US Will Win Oil climbs above $100 a barrel as the war with Iran escalates and Tehran says it has no intention of backing down. President Donald Trump says the US will win the war with Iran and suggests the Strait of Hormuz should be renamed the “Trump Strait,” while an Iranian official says Iran is ready to escalate the conflict. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 10
Autoglass Owner Belron Explores Potential Listing
Autoglass Owner Belron Explores Potential Listing The windscreen replacement and repair business—which counts Autoglass in the U.K., Carglass in Europe and Safelite in the U.S. among its brands—is exploring options including a listing. via WSJ
Sep 10
China's DeepSeek launches V4.1-Flash model
China's DeepSeek launches V4.1-Flash model Chinese artificial intelligence startup ​DeepSeek on Thursday ‌launched DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, which the company said ​is the ​smallest model in its ⁠new architecture family, ​according to a ​statement. via Reuters
Sep 10
'Saved the day': How China helped keep the lid on oil price surge as Iran war disrupted supplies
'Saved the day': How China helped keep the lid on oil price surge as Iran war disrupted supplies "China kind of saved the day," and helped the world avoid the "doomsday scenario" as the Strait of Hormuz closure choked off 20% of global energy supply, according to S&P Global Ratings. Beijing slashed its imports after the war broke out and tapped into its stockpiles, keeping a lid on global oil prices and safeguarding its economy. via CNBC
Sep 10
Bank of Korea Warns of Destabilizing Impact of High-Risk AI Trades
Bank of Korea Warns of Destabilizing Impact of High-Risk AI Trades A surge of investment in leveraged exchange-traded funds generated significant volatility in the domestic stock market, the Bank of Korea said. via WSJ
Sep 10
Iran Said to Be Ready to Escalate War With US
Iran Said to Be Ready to Escalate War With US US President Donald Trump downplayed concerns about rising oil prices and the war with Iran. Meanwhile, Iran is ready to intensify the conflict and will escalate counterstrikes if the US continues attacking its territory and infrastructure, according to a senior official from the Islamic Republic. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 10
Bank of Japan Tightening Bets, U.S. Pressure Spark Yen Recovery
Bank of Japan Tightening Bets, U.S. Pressure Spark Yen Recovery Just over a month after joint currency interventions failed to pull the yen significantly off multi-decade lows, shifting policy expectations have triggered a remarkable turnaround. via WSJ
Sep 10
China's AI chipmakers raise prices as high-bandwidth memory shortage bites
China's AI chipmakers raise prices as high-bandwidth memory shortage bites Chinese AI chipmakers including Huawei Technologies [RIC:RIC:HWT.UL] and Cambricon have sharply raised prices for current and next-generation AI processors, three people familiar with ‌the matter said, as soaring costs for high-bandwidth memory squeeze efforts to build domestic alternatives to Nvidia. via Reuters
Sep 10

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