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Prediction Markets

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 on December 31, 2026?

Above 7000
30% +8%
Between 6500 - 7000
45% -5%
Below 6500
25% -3%

28.3M volume

Sustained corporate earnings growth and a stable interest rate environment could drive significant index appreciation, barring major economic shocks. Valuations remain a key factor.

What will be the upper bound of the Federal Funds Rate target range on December 31, 2026?

Above 4.75%
35% +6%
Between 4.00% - 4.75%
40% -3%
Below 4.00%
25% -3%

15.1M volume

Inflation trajectory and labor market strength will dictate the Fed's pace. A soft landing could allow gradual cuts, while persistent inflation might hold rates higher longer.

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Market News

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China limits fuel price increases for third time since Iran war began
China limits fuel price increases for third time since Iran war began China has capped increases in retail prices ​for transportation fuels for the ‌third time since the Iran war began to mitigate the impact ​of rising international oil ​prices on the domestic market, the ⁠state planner said in ​a statement on Friday. via Reuters
Sep 11
U.S.-Iran Escalation to Delay Oil Flow Recovery Into Next Year, IEA Says
U.S.-Iran Escalation to Delay Oil Flow Recovery Into Next Year, IEA Says The energy watchdog further cut its outlook for global oil demand, now expecting consumption to fall by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026 compared with its previous forecast. via WSJ
Sep 11
Australian shares slump to two-month low as miners fall
Australian shares slump to two-month low as miners fall Australian stocks ended Friday at ​a more than two-month low, as miners led by BHP lost on ‌weaker commodity prices, while a surge in oil prices over the week heightened inflation concerns and kept investors on edge. via Reuters
Sep 11
U.S. diesel price tops $6 per gallon, a record high as Ukraine and Iran wars ripple through economy
U.S. diesel price tops $6 per gallon, a record high as Ukraine and Iran wars ripple through economy Diesel prices will be a "silent killer of the U.S. economy" if they stay at these levels, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. Higher diesel prices are passed down to consumers in what they pay for food, consumer goods and energy. via CNBC
Sep 11
Further European rate hikes 'very much dependent' on energy costs, Bundesbank chief said
Further European rate hikes 'very much dependent' on energy costs, Bundesbank chief said Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the ECB's next moves will depend heavily on energy-price developments. The ECB raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Thursday. via CNBC
Sep 11
Inflation Fears Grow as US Leads Global Bond Selloff
Inflation Fears Grow as US Leads Global Bond Selloff Bloomberg Daybreak Europe is your essential morning viewing to stay ahead. Live from London, we set the agenda for your day, catching you up with overnight markets news from the US and Asia. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 11
Political, Inflationary Risks on Europe's Horizon: Market Snapshot
Political, Inflationary Risks on Europe's Horizon: Market Snapshot The European Central Bank hiked interest rates this week against a back drop of rising global bond yields, spiralling energy prices and growing political risk. Following a state election win for German's far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Saxony-Anhalt, attention now turns to an array of elections across multiple European countries in 2027. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 11
Global Bonds Hit By Selloff Ahead of US CPI
Global Bonds Hit By Selloff Ahead of US CPI Insight with Haslinda Amin, a daily news program featuring in-depth, high-profile interviews and analysis to give viewers the complete picture on the stories that matter. The show features prominent leaders spanning the worlds of business, finance, politics and culture. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 11
DeepSeek's New Model Rattles Chipmakers and AI Rivals
DeepSeek's New Model Rattles Chipmakers and AI Rivals “Bloomberg: The China Show” is your definitive source for news and analysis on the world's second-biggest economy. From politics and policy to tech and trends, Yvonne Man and David Ingles give global investors unique insight, delivering in-depth discussions with the newsmakers who matter. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 11
Iran and US Brace for Long War
Iran and US Brace for Long War Iran and the US are digging in for a protracted war, with little sign of a near-term ceasefire or return to normal Middle East energy flows even if hostilities remain at a low intensity. The conflict has entered a form of stalemate, with critical issues including control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program still unresolved. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 11
Y Combinator's Garry Tan says 'do nothing' about distillation as AI giants accuse China of copying their tech
Y Combinator's Garry Tan says 'do nothing' about distillation as AI giants accuse China of copying their tech Garry Tan, CEO of famed startup accelerator Y Combinator, said he would "do nothing" about the issue of OpenAI and Anthropic's models being distilled by open source Chinese competitors. He added that he prefers to focus on current risks of AI rather than the doomsday-style extinction risks currently capturing headlines. via CNBC
Sep 10
Bessent says 'a large bank' will be sanctioned on Monday as part of Iran strategy
Bessent says 'a large bank' will be sanctioned on Monday as part of Iran strategy Bessent made the comment during an appearance on "Real ​America's Voice" without naming the financial institution nor the country. Since the Mideast conflict began in February, the U.S. has implemented a series of economic measures against Iran. via CNBC
Sep 10

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