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Prediction Markets

What will be the upper bound of the Federal Funds Rate target range following the final FOMC meeting of 2026 (expected December 18, 2026)?

Below 3.75%
35% +5%
Between 3.75% - 4.75%
45% -3%
Above 4.75%
20% -2%

15.8M volume

Market expects moderate easing if inflation cools. Economic resilience or unexpected shocks could shift expectations towards fewer or more aggressive cuts.

What will be the closing yield of the US 10-Year Treasury Note (UST10Y) on June 30, 2027?

Below 3.50%
30% -4%
Between 3.50% - 4.25%
40% +5%
Above 4.25%
30% -1%

11.2M volume

Yields will be driven by inflation expectations, Fed policy outlook, and government borrowing needs. Geopolitical stability also plays a role.

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Trump Weighs Diesel Export Ban as Fuel Prices Soar
Trump Weighs Diesel Export Ban as Fuel Prices Soar The president said a decision would come “fast” on a potential restriction that several Republicans are championing. via WSJ
Sep 22
Trump endorses diesel export ban. A decision is coming ‘fast, one way or the other.
Trump endorses diesel export ban. A decision is coming ‘fast, one way or the other. President Donald Trump says his administration is considering a ban on diesel exports, amid skyrocketing prices for the fuel. via Market Watch
Sep 22
The bond market is flashing a warning for stocks. These sectors are already wobbling.
The bond market is flashing a warning for stocks. These sectors are already wobbling. What has been a reliable harbinger of trouble for stocks and the U.S. economy has begun to emerge in the $31.5 trillion Treasury market. via Market Watch
Sep 22
Trump supports diesel export ban as fuel prices hit records
Trump supports diesel export ban as fuel prices hit records US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he backed a ban on diesel exports, as ‌Republican candidates in some of the tightest election races in November called for the measure as a way to curb record fuel prices. via Reuters
Sep 22
SpaceXAI's Grok Bot Gains Early Traction
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Sep 22
The Global AI Race: Chips, Talent, and World Models
The Global AI Race: Chips, Talent, and World Models Bloomberg's Ed Ludlow breaks down Alibaba's new AI chip, an accelerator to compete with Nvidia and underpinning a massive expansion of data center capacity in coming years. Plus, he speaks with Gagan Biyani, founder and CEO of the Horowitz Andreessen Academy, Silicon Valley's alternative college for the AI era. via Bloomberg Technology
Sep 22
Trump administration is examining whether a diesel export ban is feasible, Treasury Secretary says
Trump administration is examining whether a diesel export ban is feasible, Treasury Secretary says "We're examining whether it's feasible in terms of the overall refining capacity and whether a full or partial ban would work," Bessent said. via CNBC
Sep 22
Trump Isn't On 'Anyone's Side But His Own,' Says Dan Tannebaum
Trump Isn't On 'Anyone's Side But His Own,' Says Dan Tannebaum For a pair of geopolitical rivals, the US and China are sending plenty of positive signals ahead of President Xi Jinping's visit to Washington this week. Officials on both sides offered upbeat readouts from pre-meeting talks on artificial intelligence, trade and investment, suggesting stabilizing relations may top the agenda. via Bloomberg Markets and Finance
Sep 22
Fed's Barkin Says One Rate Hike May Not Be Enough to Tame Inflation
Fed's Barkin Says One Rate Hike May Not Be Enough to Tame Inflation Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin warned that temporary shocks spurring inflation this year could drag on and new cost pressures could develop. via WSJ
Sep 22
Defending against dangerous AI should be a national priority — and we need more AI to do it
Defending against dangerous AI should be a national priority — and we need more AI to do it A rogue state or terrorist organization has little reason to observe an AI slowdown. via Market Watch
Sep 22
Investors Demand Highest Yield at Two-Year U.S. Treasury Auction Since 2024
Investors Demand Highest Yield at Two-Year U.S. Treasury Auction Since 2024 The auction comes as investors brace for rising interest rates after hawkish communication from Federal Reserve officials followed a rate increase last week. via WSJ
Sep 22
Quantum stocks are getting hot again after a brutal summer. Can the rally last?
Quantum stocks are getting hot again after a brutal summer. Can the rally last? This week's Quantum World Congress could trigger a ‘sentiment reversal' for quantum stocks after a rough summer, an analyst said. via Market Watch
Sep 22
A Rejuvenated AI Trade May Not Be Enough to Save the Stock Market
A Rejuvenated AI Trade May Not Be Enough to Save the Stock Market AI is back in the driver's seat as stocks enter the final stretch of the third quarter. via Barrons
Sep 22

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