Tesla Shares Plunge After Delaying Robotaxi Launch and UBS Downgrade

Stifel lowered its price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) from $474 to $455, citing a combination of softening consumer sentiment among Democrats and the upcoming rollout of the refreshed Model Y, known as Juniper, as reasons for near-term delivery pressure.

While maintaining a Buy rating, Stifel highlighted data from the firm’s Think Tank Group, which shows a significant drop in Tesla’s favorability among Democratic voters. This trend is expected to act as a temporary drag on U.S. sales, adding another layer of complexity to Tesla’s Q2 and Q3 performance outlook.

In addition, the transition to the updated Model Y could cause a pause in demand as consumers hold off on purchases in anticipation of the new release—typical behavior seen with major product refreshes.

Despite the short-term pressures, Stifel remains optimistic about Tesla’s long-term fundamentals, pointing to its strong brand, expanding product lineup, and innovation pipeline as drivers of sustained value.

Deutsche Bank lowered its price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) from $420 to $345, maintaining a Buy rating but signaling increased caution as the company faces softening demand and a slower-than-expected Model Q launch.

The bank adjusted Tesla’s delivery forecasts downward for the first quarter, full year, and 2026. Q1 deliveries are now estimated between 340,000 and 350,000 units, reflecting weaker demand trends and indicating potential margin pressure for Tesla’s automotive segment.

For 2025, the analysts project a 5% year-over-year decline in deliveries to approximately 1.7 million vehicles, assuming a staggered introduction of the Model Q, Tesla’s upcoming lower-cost version of the Model Y. The revised rollout timeline now assumes initial U.S. availability, followed by Europe and then China.

The analysts attributed recent stock pressure to disappointing auto volumes, a broader pullback in high-growth tech names, and uncertainty around regulatory and political developments.

Deutsche Bank also cautioned that despite the excitement around Tesla’s future-facing technologies like robotaxis and humanoid robots, progress in those areas is unlikely to follow a smooth or predictable trajectory.

While the long-term outlook remains intact, Tesla’s near-term performance will likely hinge on how effectively it manages demand challenges, executes the Model Q launch, and navigates a more volatile macro and policy environment.

Piper Sandler analysts reaffirmed an Overweight rating and $450 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), pushing back against the narrative that recent delivery declines are politically driven.

While acknowledging that Elon Musk’s public persona may have some negative impact on consumer sentiment, Piper Sandler argues that logistical and operational challenges are the primary reason behind Tesla’s expected double-digit year-over-year drop in Q1 deliveries.

The firm points to updated wait time data, indicating that supply constraints—not demand issues—are likely responsible for the shortfall. Tesla has faced multi-week shutdowns across all four of its Model Y production facilities, limiting available inventory regardless of demand levels.

Looking ahead, momentum could pick up quickly, with new vehicle launches reportedly on the horizon, and the much-anticipated robo-taxi unveiling slated for June. These developments could reinvigorate investor enthusiasm and open up fresh growth avenues.

Barclays analysts reaffirmed a $325 price target and Equalweight rating on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), cautioning that the electric vehicle maker’s first-quarter deliveries are likely to come in well below market expectations.

After analyzing data from January and February and early trends from March, Barclays projects Q1 deliveries of approximately 350,000 units—significantly under the consensus estimate of 400,000 units and lower than the firm’s prior forecast issued after Tesla’s Q4 earnings.

This updated estimate reflects a roughly 30% decline from the previous quarter and a 10% drop year-over-year. According to Barclays, many investors may already be bracing for these lower figures, given sluggish delivery data throughout the quarter.

The forecast also includes an expected 20,000-unit drawdown in inventory, largely attributed to reduced China-based production for exports and lower output globally during the ramp-up of the Model Y Juniper refresh. As a result, Barclays anticipates Tesla’s global inventory will land between 70,000 and 80,000 units at the end of Q1.

UBS analysts reduced Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target from $259 to $225 while maintaining a Sell rating, citing concerns over slowing deliveries and softer demand. As a result, the company’s shares fell around 8% intra-day today.

The firm has adjusted its first-quarter 2025 delivery forecast to 367,000 units, down from its previous estimate of 437,000. UBS attributes this revision to a weaker current production run-rate, though it expects Tesla to push for higher deliveries toward the end of the quarter, potentially through increased promotional efforts.

The new forecast represents a 5% year-over-year decline in deliveries and a sharp 26% drop compared to the previous quarter. This estimate also sits 13% below the consensus. UBS’s data indicates that wait times for Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y remain short—typically within two weeks—in major markets, which the firm views as a sign of weakening demand.

With these factors in play, UBS remains cautious on Tesla’s near-term outlook, highlighting potential challenges in sustaining sales momentum without further strategic adjustments.

• Goldman Sachs has updated its rating for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to "Cautious" with a "hold" action as of March 2, 2025, when Tesla's stock price was $292.98.
• Tesla is making significant strides in self-driving technology, potentially positioning it as a leader in the automotive industry.
• Tesla's advancements in AI and self-driving capabilities could significantly impact its stock and position in the global market, especially in China, the largest electric vehicle market.

On March 2, 2025, Goldman Sachs updated its grade for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to "Cautious," maintaining a "hold" action. At the time, Tesla's stock price was $292.98. Tesla is a leading electric vehicle manufacturer known for its innovative approach to automotive technology. It competes with companies like BYD in China and Waymo in the U.S. in the self-driving space.

Tesla is making significant strides in self-driving technology, which could revolutionize the automotive industry. Despite the lack of a true self-driving car in the global market, Tesla's advancements in AI could position it as a leader. This potential breakthrough could impact Tesla's stock and its position in the global market.

In the U.S., Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, leads the self-driving initiative with services in cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco. However, Waymo's technology hasn't been extensively tested on open roads, and as a non-car manufacturer, it needs partnerships to implement its software. Tesla's ability to integrate self-driving technology into its vehicles gives it a competitive edge.

In China, the largest electric vehicle market, companies like BYD are also developing self-driving features. BYD recently unveiled its "God's Eye" technology. Tesla's advancements in AI and self-driving capabilities could significantly impact its stock and position in the global market, especially in China, where the opportunity is massive.

Tesla's stock is currently priced at $293.05, showing a 3.94% increase, or $11.10 rise. The stock fluctuated between $273.60 and $293.58 during the day. Over the past year, it reached a high of $488.54 and a low of $138.80. Tesla's market capitalization is approximately $942.59 billion, with a trading volume of 115.70 million shares.