Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) on Q2 2021 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Operator: Good day and welcome to the Republic Services' Second Quarter 2021 Investor Conference Call. Republic Services is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol RSG. All participants in today's call will be in listen-only mode. Please not this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Stacey Mathews, Vice President of Investor Relations. Stacey Mathews: I would like to welcome everyone to Republic Services' second quarter 2021 conference call. Jon Vander Ark, our CEO; and Brian DelGhiaccio, our CFO are joining me as we discuss our performance. I would like to take a moment to remind everyone that some of the information we discuss on today's call contains forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties and may be materially different from actual results. Our SEC filings discuss factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. The material that we discuss today is time-sensitive. If in the future, you listen to a rebroadcast or recording of this conference call, you should be sensitive to the date of the original call, which is July 29, 2021. Please note that this call is the property of Republic Services, Inc. Any redistribution, retransmission, or rebroadcast of this call in any form without the expressed written consent of Republic Services is strictly prohibited. I want to point out that our SEC filings, our earnings press release, which includes GAAP reconciliation tables and a discussion of business activities, along with the recording of this call are all available on Republic's website at republicservices.com. I want to remind you that Republic's management team routinely participates in investor conferences. When events are scheduled, the dates, times, and presentations are posted on our website. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jon. Jon Ark: Thanks, Stacey. Good afternoon, everyone. And thank you for joining us. We are very pleased with our strong performance in the second quarter. Our results reflect strong execution and continued momentum on our strategic priorities, which are building capabilities to further differentiate us from competitors. These capabilities include driving growth, and building customer loyalty through a maniacal focus on the customer, which we call customer zeal. Leveraging digital tools to improve the experience for our customers and employees, which we believe drives growth and generates operational efficiencies, and prioritizing sustainability by offering environmentally responsible solutions to our customers, while protecting the planet. During the second quarter, we delivered adjusted earnings per share of $1.09, which represents a 36% increase over the prior year. Expanded EBITDA margin of 110 basis points to 30.6% and generate a $1 billion of adjusted free cash flow on a year-to-date basis. We continue to effectively allocate capital by investing in value creating acquisitions, and returning excess cash to our shareholders. Year-to-date, we invested $567 million in acquisitions to further enhance our market position and increased free cash flow. Our pipeline of acquisition opportunities remains robust with opportunities in both solid waste and the environmental solutions portion of our business. We expect to invest well over $600 million in acquisitions for the full year. Year-to-date, we return $363 million to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, and our board recently approved an 8% increase in the quarterly dividend. The strength of the underlying business is irrefutable, and we continue to see the proof points that our strategy is working. Brian DelGhiaccio: Thanks Jon. Second quarter core price was 5.2%, which included open market pricing of 6.5% and restricted pricing of 3%. Core price in the open market was the highest level in company history. The components of core price included small container of 7.9%, large container of 5.3% and residential of 5%. Average yield was 2.6%, which increased 30 basis points from the first quarter. This level of performance was in line with our expectations. Second quarter volume increased 8.1%. While we expected second quarter to be the highest reported volume for the year, the 8.1% growth exceeded our expectations. The components of volume included an increase in small container of 8.6%, an increase in large container of 13.7% and an increase in landfill of 12.6%. For reference second quarter volumes in our small and large container businesses were down less than 1% from a 2019 pre pandemic baseline and MSW and CMD landfill volumes were both above the pre pandemic baseline. Moving on to recycling. Commodity prices increased to $170 per ton in the second quarter. This compared to $101 per ton in the prior year. Recycling, processing and commodity sales contributed 100 basis points to internal growth during the second quarter. Next, turning to our environmental solutions business. Second quarter environmental solutions revenue was essentially flat with the prior year. Approximately 30% of our environmental solutions business is in the upstream oil and gas sector and 70% is in the downstream petrochemical and broader industrial manufacturing sectors. The downstream petrochemical and industrial manufacturing portion of this business grew 8% compared to the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the second quarter was 30.6% and increased 110 basis points over the prior year. This includes 130 basis points, a 50 basis point increase from recycled commodity prices and a 70 basis point headwind from that fuel. The margin expansion is a direct result of pricing in excess of our cost inflation, realizing operating leverage as volumes return and continued effective cost management. SG&A with 10.7% of revenue, which was flat with the proper year, SG&A included higher levels of incentive compensation, due to projected financial outperformance. SG&A would have been approximately 10%, excluding the additional incentive compensation expenses. Year-to-date adjusted free cash flow was $1 billion and increased $276 million or 38% compared to the prior year. The drivers of growth included EBITDA growth in the business, a positive contribution from a one and a half day improvement in DSO and the timing of capital expenditures. We received approximately 40% of our projected full year CapEx during the first half of the year. Operator: Our first question today comes from Tyler Brown with Raymond James. TylerBrown: Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Hey, Brian, I don't know if it was just my phone or not. But you kind of cut out when you were unpacking the 110 basis point improvement EBITDA margins. Can you run through that again real quick? BrianDelGhiaccio: Yes, the underlying business, Tyler, was 130 basis points of expansion. We had a headwind for net fuel of 70 basis points. And then higher commodity prices contributed 50 basis points of the increase. TylerBrown: Okay, perfect. And then on the $0.26 increase in EPS at the midpoint, can you just break down the moving pieces there? What I'm really trying to get at is kind of get a feel for how much was kind of core price and volume versus other things like commodities? BrianDelGhiaccio: Yes, so let me -- I'll put it these terms. So commodity prices from our prior guide are about $0.08 of the increase. The rest of it is in the underlying business and that's just a combination of price, volume, better and more effective cost management. And as I mentioned, due to the financial outperformance we are recording higher incentive compensation expense in that underlying business. We are absorbing those higher incentive compensation accruals. TylerBrown: Okay, great. And then just lastly here. I know you don't give EBITDA guidance, but if you kind of run it through are we kind of flirting with 30% EBITDA margins for the year? BrianDelGhiaccio: Yes. Operator: Our next question will come from Hamzah Mazari with Jefferies. MarioCortellacci: Hamza Missouri with Jefferies. Hi, this is Mario Cortellacci filling in for Hamza. Maybe it's a kind of piggyback off of Tyler's last question. And maybe it implies the same thing. But could you just talk about your current free cash flow conversion and what's implied in your 2021 guidance? And then where does that go longer term? And what are the big levers you can pull in order to continue to see that increase? BrianDelGhiaccio: Yes, sure. So our original guidance had free cash flow conversion in called the 43% range. Since then, right, we are increasing both the EBITDA as well as the free cash flow, but we think that conversion is also improving at the same time. So it's trending closer to the 44% range. Longer term, we talked about our ability to get to mid to 45%, 46% 47% type free cash flow conversion, we think we can just get there quicker, just because again, we're having a better springboard here in '21. MarioCortellacci: Got you. And then just a quick follow up on headcount. Could you just remind us how you're thinking about further headcount additions? And how you're also contemplating that with potential labor inflation going forward? JonArk: Well, we certainly take more drivers if we could get them right now, we're more probably forego, we certainly are forgoing some growth opportunities in certain markets, where listen, the economy is booming, and lots of spots, right, and we take more, we're doing a great job on turnover, broadly speaking, right, and we just love to be able to hire some more people, again, particularly in the industrial or large container line of business. And then we're seeing very modest inflation in this year's economics, going to do an annual increase, and we give our people a fair increase every year. We expect that certainly to pick up next year, but to be more than offset by our ability to price through that. And so we think that inflation net-net will be margin expanding for us. Operator: Our next question comes from Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets. WalterSpracklin: Thanks very much, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. Like to come back to your comments on ways to gas conversion. You mentioned I think 15 facilities where you can ramp that up. Can you give us any quantification on the revenue and cash flow generation from that the level of investment you would have to make or whether you're going to partner up here with anybody for offtake arrangements? And generally, what the strategic direction is around this? Is this something that you're just going to have as this nice steady stream of new revenue? Or could you contemplate down the road monetizing this, obviously, there's been some significant valuations for this type of revenue stream, and whether you could look at some value enhancing opportunities there just on the way to gas conversion. Love to hear your thoughts on that. JonArk: Sure, yes, strategically we think it fits right into where we're going. I mentioned in my prepared comments, it supports our sustainability aspirations, and we think it drives money to the bottom line. And that's where we look at, things that are both environmentally sustainable, and economically sustainable. They happen to be related most of the time, broadly speaking, we'll look to partner, not because we can't do it ourselves, we do that in a handful of cases, I just think about our resources, and it's less financial capital, it's more of our talent, I don't want to tie up all of our time and energy in a place where I think it'll be a nice ancillary revenue stream, certainly profitable for us. But it doesn't provide exponential growth, right, there's a cap to that. And so we can work with other people who can help us get there quicker. And again, capture all those environmental benefits. And some of the financial benefits without having to tie up our resources, which I think are better, placed elsewhere. WalterSpracklin: Okay, and just in terms of quantifying the potential opportunity from the 15 facilities you mentioned. JonArk: No, we're not talking about the specific economics, I'd say broadly speaking if we think about kind of pushing out that not every site, but you're talking about kind of a $200 million revenue type opportunity for us, right, in a shared arrangement. So, again, we're not going to get the multi year plan to get there. So that just dimension and could it be a little more, could be a little less, of course, but that just dimensions, that why we're not spending all of our energy there because there's a ceiling to the opportunity. WalterSpracklin: Got it. And that's a fairly low capital intensive opportunity. Is that right? JonArk: Correct. And again, that's why we partner with others because we've got people lining up at the door to put their capital to work. And so we think the most attractive place way for us to play in that is working with others. Operator: Our next question comes from Jeff Goldstein with Morgan Stanley. Alright, we're going to go ahead and move to Kevin Chung with CIBC. KevinChung: Hi, thanks for taking my question. Congrats on a good quarter there. If I could just turn to pricing, you called out the 5.2 highest in company history? I get this inflation everywhere. So your ability to offset that is obviously playing out. But I'm wondering are you starting to see any pushback here as you looked at capture pricing to offset inflation? Your central bankers telling us this is a transitory issue or one of your clients coming back saying, no, we're not going to pay that price for what might be a point in time increase in inflation? Or has it been pretty -- have these conversations been pretty normal, I guess? JonArk: No, we're certainly getting it right. We're just seeing the volume growth, and you're seeing the prices stick. And again, our capture pricing tool allows us to adjust real time as we've seen some inflationary pressure, for example, in steel prices and containers, right, we've priced that right through. But keep in mind, most of the inflationary benefit of pricing hasn't yet flowed through that will come on the-- the contracted portion of our book, which is about 50%. And most of that will flow into 2022. But now, broadly speaking, we are seeing customers take pride, again, we're showing up working hard doing a great job and getting paid for the work we do. BrianDelGhiaccio: And Kevin, remember that core price metric is the price increase net rollbacks. So that included in that metric. KevinChung: That's a good point, that's a good clarification. And just maybe just looking at your free cash flow you did increase your CapEx assumptions a little bit. And I know you had a big spend in the first half of the year just listening to some other companies talking about the supply chain disruptions one of the areas they are seeing it as the equipment they are trying to get this year and just looking at your raise guidance, how you would frame the confidence and getting to that number, just given some of the supply chain disruptions around getting equipment, and just getting the resources to get that stuff built. JonArk: Yes, we're pretty confident in the number. Of course, we know -- it's certain environments. So anything can happen with supply chains here, but we're on track to do that. And the incremental spend versus the original guide is really for growth capital. And some of our bigger spends, obviously in the capital side are trucks and heavy equipment. And we're on track, we're going to take about 1,200 trucks this year, we've already received 700 of those, and have good line of sight to the 500. And we're working really closely, our procurement team working really closely with our partners, which are strategic and long term. And they've been on track in terms of supplying us. So we're hitting our marks there. Operator: Our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. JerryRevich: Yes, hi, good afternoon. I'm wondering if you just talk about the recycling investment opportunity that you folks have, you called out in the sustainability report, the investments that you made in enhancing productivity at some plants? Can you just talk about how much runway you have to continue that investment in any Greenfield or acquisition opportunities that you focus on that part of the business? JonArk: Yes, we have some of both clearly broadly speaking, we're going through opportunity that does a CapEx OpEx trade off, right, and we do it for two reasons. One, we think like putting more capital and we can modernize those facilities, it allows us to produce a better product on the other end, better segmentation, less contamination, and we think we're getting higher yield, on the other end of higher throughput of those facilities. Also, back to the labor market, which is tight right now, those are very challenging jobs. So the more automation we put in those facilities, the better off we think we're going to be long term. And we've got a very consistent steady plan to upgrade a number of our facilities. And then there's a handful of markets that over the next few years, will eye for Greenfield facilities, they could be buy opportunities, but most likely we'll go studs up on those just because we can get the right equipment and get the right facility at the right kind of CapEx OpEx trade off in place when we do it clean sheet. JerryRevich: Got it. And in terms of how much capital you might be able to deploy in that direction over the next couple of years. Can you just give us a rough sense? BrianDelGhiaccio: If we think about what we've done historically around our recycling processing, when we've made those investments, it's been anywhere from $30 million to $40 million per year. JonArk: And again, that could bump up at any given year, right, if we're going to do a true new facility, and get well returned to base so we'll look at that, if we think it's got a good returns profile. We'll certainly make the investment. JerryRevich: Okay, and lastly excellent core price performance in the quarter, the pickup in core price was higher than the pickup in yield, can you talk about what was the driver of the little bit lower pickup in yield versus core price and how you're thinking about sequential pricing from here compared to what we saw last year? JonArk: Yes, I would say, listen, we're in the midst of coming out of an economic shock. And so when you go down really fast, and then come up really fast, which is what we're doing now, that tends to create some noise in certain stats. So small containers, a great example of that, right, really strong core price yield of only 22, a lot of that as mix. So you've got lower priced customers coming back online there, for example, education. Got a low cost position, because you got a lot of containers in a small facility. But that also has a smaller price impact. So that will normalize here, as we get into Q2, or Q3, and Q4, you'll see some better year-over-year comp, we did historically, trust me, we've not lost our aspiration for price, especially in an inflationary environment, our people need to get paid, right. And as goods increase, we will certainly pass that price on through to customers. BrianDelGhiaccio: And Jerry, you can actually see that so on the way down. So back in Q2 of 2020, if you look at small containers, that's when yield was over 4%, that's when some of those education customers were exiting the system with service decreases, now that they're coming back, and back online, you're seeing that impact that mix is having. But just like we said, with our large container portfolio, it's come back to 3%. It was running lower, right for the last couple quarters, and that had all of a function of lower weights, right. So there's a little bit of noise, as John mentioned here that we're seeing in some of these metrics, but the core pricing is strong. We're pricing in excess of our cost inflation, and we're generating over 100 basis points of margin expansion. Operator: Our next question comes from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer. NoahKaye: Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. You were talking I think in last quarter and before about a good special waste pipeline and looking for some of that to actually break free. And it looks like that started to happen this quarter I guess just what was driving your view that this kind of recovery in C&D and special waste? Was it regionally concentrated anywhere? And then how does the pipeline look heading into the back half? JonArk: Yes, I just think special waste in times of uncertainty, those jobs, they often get awarded, right, they just don't move. And so we saw a good special with waste pipeline that continued to build even though the actual performance wasn't great in times of uncertainty, we're seeing those things get released. Listen, the pipeline is strong. We've seen places like California, for example, has not really opened up like other parts of the country have. So we see more upside and the pipeline remains strong. NoahKaye: Okay, great. And then you talked before about the M&A opportunity and environmental services, I guess, first, to clarify with that, be more in the downstream part of the business. And second what is the tail of opportunities look like for you in that market? Is this primarily about tuck-ins, do you have targets that could move the needle from a total company growth perspective? JonArk: Yes, our strategy there is really getting a mix of acquisitive and organic growth, right. And so we're building out product lines, building out geographies on that, and this is -- these are businesses or service lines that we've been in for long periods of time in very incremental ways. And customers have asked us to play a better and bigger role as they look to consolidate their supply base around few providers who can have great safety track records, have a digital interface and good sustainability records. So we can fit all those marks for them. And so we're on a kind of steady sequential path, and we see the pipeline there to be full. Over time, could we do something bigger? Of course, we could, but the near to medium term path is kind of steady growth on that front. Again, it's not either or it's both end we still have a very strong pipeline in the more traditional recycling a solid waste portion of business as well. Operator: Our next question comes from Sean Eastman with KeyBanc Capital Markets. SeanEastman: Hi, guys, thanks for taking my questions. Nice job again. Could we put a finer point around the updated EBITDA margin guidance? JonArk: Sure. What would you like to be? SeanEastman: The exact number that's in the guidance would be wonderful. BrianDelGhiaccio: Yes. So look, we're year-to-date we're running 30.6%, we see margin circa 30% in the back half of the year which would put you at a call it 30.3, 30.4 on a full year basis, which would result in 90 to 100 basis points at margin expansion '21 over '20. And that's following a year '20, over '19, where we had 130 basis points in margin expansion. So it would be over 200 basis points of margin expansion in two years. SeanEastman: Yes, certainly impressive. And that kind of implies a flattish trajectory in the back half; there are just so many moving parts in the business right now. Could you just kind of help me parse that out? Why a flattening out trend here makes sense. And maybe how their recycled commodity uplift has been built into that outlook? JonArk: Yes, actually, listen, there's certainly some awareness that we're still in a pandemic, right? And with the Delta variant and the third wave happening and pockets of a country starting to retrench a bit, right? We're very mindful that we don't know exactly what's going to happen in the next six months, we're not past this thing. And into a new normal, we're very excited about the recovery in lots of spots, and certainly the longer term growth profile, as well as our ability to execute in that I think, in the near term, there just remains some uncertainty. BrianDelGhiaccio: Yes, and one of the things too that we were seeing, really from the beginning of the year and throughout the second quarter, is that as units have recovered, we have seen higher container weights, in particular on our business customers. And so again, that's one of those things that we continue to expect going forward. We've talked about these macro benefits modulating as units return, quite honestly, we've held on to those benefits longer than we originally anticipated. Many of these, we were thinking could become structural changes in our business. But that said, we're being proved. And we're still expecting some of those demodulate as we continue to see the recovery. And that's why we expect a little bit of a sequential decline. But if it doesn't happen, then that could be upside to our expectations. SeanEastman: Okay, got it, and then just on their recycled commodities, I'm just curious relative to where we're sitting today, how you've built it, and if there's a bit of a cushion there as well. JonArk: Well, let me -- so our average recycled commodity prices were $170 per ton in the second quarter, we have assume that will stay flat at that level for the rest of the year. Operator: Our next question comes from Michael Hoffman with Stifel. MichaelHoffman: Hey, again, thanks for taking the question. Brian $125 million, free cash flow from your original February to your current midpoint to midpoint, you broke up the $125 million difference increase how much is operating leverage and how much is commodities? BrianDelGhiaccio: Commodities are about 25% of that, Michael. And the rest of it is operating leverage. And when I say operating leverage, remember we're absorbing the higher incremental incentive compensation in that number. So x that the operating leverages is even higher. MichaelHoffman: Right and okay, and this are a one time adjust. This is not my second question. Just to tease this out. That's a one time adjustment to your incentive comp. So next year, I'd expect SG&A to find a different percent of revenues, because it'll -- that'll normalize. BrianDelGhiaccio: Well, we hope to further exceed our plan next year. But yes, if gravity takes us back to hitting our number, we certainly that would anniversary well for us. MichaelHoffman: On the sustainability commentary and I'm trying to tease out just so people begin to appreciate some of the data on the greenhouse gas improvement. Can you help us understand '16, '17, '18 the numbers were reasonably flattish the production of scope one and two, and then it spikes in '19? And then it comes back down to 5% in '20 why does that list in that manner? Is there a measurement issue? Is there a peculiarity a way the data is collected based on algorithms? And we all should be aware of that and put that in context for us? JonArk: Yes, we can get back into the specifics of the kind of a jump in '19. And certainly there's some -- this space is not fully settled out, as you might imagine, right in terms of while everybody is measuring it, that improvement last year that's twofold. One is we just had fewer miles driven, right, as we got more productive, and it was a little bit of a demand fall, as well as we landfill gas to energy projects, right, and those coming online and not even just new ones coming on line. It's also optimizing and driving the performance and the output of the existing fleet. That's certainly helping as well. BrianDelGhiaccio: Yes. And most of that reduction, Michael, the 5%, that was related to just enhance landfill gas collection, which is direct outcome, just those additional projects that have come on line. Operator: Our next question comes from Kyle White with Deutsche Bank. KyleWhite: Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Just wondering with the new guide, are you providing updated thoughts and where you think volumes and average yields did end up for the full year? BrianDelGhiaccio: Look, average yield for right now we're thinking is relatively consistent with what we originally guided with maybe a slight upward bias volume, though, we are expecting to see 50 to 100 basis points better than what we originally said, I think we said about 1.5% to 2%. We're thinking is probably closer to 2.5% at this point. KyleWhite: Got it. And then on M&A following this is a same type deal. Should we expect you guys to be kind of take a pause here for this year on M&A spend, or do you still see a pretty robust pipeline and opportunity there for tuck-in for the remainder of the year? JonArk: Yes, no pause. We're hard at work, pipeline is strong. And we expect to have a really strong year on that front. Operator: Our next question comes from Jeff Goldstein with Morgan Stanley. JeffGoldstein: Hey, can you guys hear me okay now? All right. Great. So you mentioned earlier some labor headwinds, which I get, but at the same time, you get a fairly high amount of leverage on the labor line this quarter, I think it was about 70 basis points. So maybe you can just talk about what efficiencies you're seeing, is that just lower overtime generally? Is that really just price? Maybe you could just talk about some of those drivers? JonArk: Yes, I think you're seeing our RISE platform really take root, right; we're just driving efficiencies into the system. So for a large container driver, rather than doing seven actions in a day, we're getting an eight action, right in the same time period, right. And we'll really look worked hard over the last three or four years to design that platform. And now we talked about that being embedded in about half of our small and large container routes. And while we're seeing the fruits of that come through the P&L. And again, we expect more benefit as we go forward on that. And look, there is probably still a little bit of opportunity or a little bit of benefit from work from home and traffic patterns, although we would have expected that to be a bigger headwind. And again, to Brian's earlier comment, we're holding on to that benefit. So we think that's a modest headwind at best as we move forward. JeffGoldstein: Okay, great. And then your buybacks have been fairly limited since the onset of COVID. I know that partially has to do with a robust M&A market, but curious how we should think about your appetite for repurchases, I guess for the rest of the year and really into next year as well. JonArk: We certainly have appetite, it will be our first priority if we find value creating acquisitions that meet our -- that are strategically aligned and meet our return profile. That's where we will start but we'll be active with a stock as well, because we think that also was a great investment and certainly think we're trading well below our intrinsic value. BrianDelGhiaccio: And one of the things we talked about all along is that we want to preserve that capacity and kind of maintain that leverage ratio at or below three times. Quite honestly, we were doing it with the Santek acquisition and given our outperformance it created more capacity, which is why we were a buyer of our stock in the second quarter. Operator: At this time, there appear to be no further questions. Mr. Vander Ark, I'll turn the call back over to you for closing remarks. Jon Ark: Thank you, Isley. Our second quarter results highlight the strength and momentum in the business which positions us well for continued growth over the remainder of this year and beyond. We continue to create value for our stakeholders by executing against our strategic priorities, which drives profitable growth and increases returns. I would like to thank all of our employees for their continued hard work and dedication. They continue to demonstrate their passion for taking care of our customers, each other and the environment. Each year the NWRA honors the best of the best, the drivers and operators of the year. I'd like to thank employees who swept every available award in our category this year. These individuals are James Davis; D. McKinley, Tony Forest, Victoria Barragan, Urioso. We look forward to celebrating them next year at Waste Expo. They stood out among 10s of 1000s of their peers for their outstanding safety and customer service records. They're great examples of what we value. Have a good evening and be safe. Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.RSG Ratings Summary
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