Seaport Upgrades PayPal to Neutral, Shares Rise 3%

PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings, but shares fell 9% intra-day as investors reacted to slowing transaction growth despite robust financials.

The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.40, above analysts’ estimate of $1.30. Revenue reached $8.3 billion, exceeding the $8.08 billion consensus and marking a 5% increase from the year-ago quarter.

Transaction margin dollars rose 7% to $3.8 billion, and 8% excluding interest on customer balances. However, total payment transactions fell 5% to 6.2 billion. When excluding payment service provider volumes, transactions increased 6%.

Total payment volume climbed 6% to $443.5 billion, or 5% on a currency-neutral basis.

PayPal raised its full-year EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.30, up from $4.95–$5.10 and above analyst estimates of $5.10. For Q3, the company projected adjusted EPS of $1.18–$1.22 versus the $1.21 consensus.

• Bryan Keane from Deutsche Bank sets a price target of $75 for PayPal.
• PayPal anticipates a positive growth trend with expected earnings of $1.30 per share and revenue of $8.08 billion.
• The introduction of a feature allowing users to link cryptocurrency wallets to merchant checkout pages could enhance PayPal's position in the digital payments space.

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) is a leading player in the digital payments industry, offering a platform that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants worldwide. The company is known for its innovative solutions in the financial technology space, competing with other giants like Square and Stripe.

On July 29, 2025, Bryan Keane from Deutsche Bank set a price target of $75 for PayPal. At that time, the stock was trading at $78.22, which is about 4.12% higher than the target. This suggests that the market might be overvaluing the stock based on Deutsche Bank's analysis.

PayPal is set to announce its second-quarter earnings results on July 29. Analysts expect earnings of $1.30 per share, up from $1.19 per share last year. The anticipated revenue is $8.08 billion, an increase from $7.88 billion. These figures indicate a positive growth trend for the company.

In a strategic move, PayPal has introduced a feature allowing users to link cryptocurrency wallets to merchant checkout pages. This could enhance PayPal's position in the digital payments space, making it more appealing to users interested in cryptocurrency transactions.

Ahead of the earnings release, PayPal's stock saw a slight increase, closing at $78.22, a 0.3% rise. The stock has traded between $77.93 and $79.50 today, with a market cap of approximately $76.07 billion. The trading volume is 14.93 million shares, reflecting active investor interest.

PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) is a leading digital payments company that facilitates online money transfers and serves as an electronic alternative to traditional paper methods like checks and money orders. The company operates globally, providing services to both consumers and merchants. PayPal faces competition from other fintech companies like Square and traditional financial institutions.

On July 14, 2025, Seaport Global upgraded PayPal's stock to a Neutral rating, with the stock priced at $71.36. This change, reported by TheFly, marks a shift from a previous rating, reflecting a more balanced outlook on the stock's performance. The upgrade comes amid a volatile market environment influenced by broader economic factors.

Just days before the upgrade, on July 11, 2025, the S&P 500 experienced a 0.3% decline, pulling back from record highs. This downturn was triggered by President Trump's announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, which affected market sentiment. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones also saw declines of 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively, highlighting the market's sensitivity to trade policy changes.

In this context, PayPal's shares fell by 5.7%, influenced by reports that JPMorgan would start charging fintech companies for access to client data. This development impacts PayPal's operations, as access to client data is crucial for its business model. Despite the stock's current price of $71.36, it reflects a decrease of 5.73% or $4.34, with a trading range between $70.80 and $75.13 for the day.

PayPal's market capitalization stands at approximately $69.4 billion, with a trading volume of 21,877,721 shares on the NASDAQ exchange. Over the past year, the stock has seen a high of $93.66 and a low of $55.85, indicating significant volatility. As the market continues to react to external factors, PayPal's stock performance remains under close watch by investors and analysts alike.

• J.P. Morgan maintains an "Overweight" rating for PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL), indicating a positive outlook on the stock's future performance.
• PayPal's fourth-quarter revenue growth and transaction margin dollar metric exceeded expectations, showcasing the company's profitability and operational efficiency.
• Despite a slight underperformance in Payment Service Provider (PSP) volume, PayPal's Total Payments Volume (TPV) growth aligns with estimates, reflecting steady market presence.

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) is a leading digital payments platform that facilitates online money transfers and serves as an electronic alternative to traditional paper methods like checks and money orders. Competing with other payment giants like Square and Stripe, PayPal has established itself as a trusted name in the financial technology sector.

On February 4, 2025, J.P. Morgan maintained its "Overweight" rating for PayPal, with the stock priced at approximately $77.73. This rating suggests that J.P. Morgan believes PayPal's stock will perform better than the average market return. Despite a recent decrease of 13.17% in its stock price, PayPal's market capitalization remains robust at approximately $77.92 billion.

PayPal's fourth-quarter revenue growth of 4% slightly exceeded expectations, as highlighted by JP Morgan analyst Tien-tsin Huang. This growth was supported by a 7% increase in the key transaction margin dollar metric, surpassing JP Morgan and Street estimates of 4% and 3%, respectively. Such performance indicates PayPal's ability to generate more profit from its transactions than anticipated.

The company's Total Payments Volume (TPV) increased by 7%, aligning with JP Morgan and Street estimates. This includes a 6% increase in Brand volume, which remained stable despite accelerating market growth. The U.S. market, in particular, experienced acceleration, contributing to PayPal's overall performance. However, the Payment Service Provider (PSP) volume grew by only 2%, slightly below JP Morgan's estimate of 3%.

PayPal is focusing on its growth strategy for 2025, with strong transaction margin dollars ahead of its Investor Day. Despite the stock's recent drop, reaching a low of $77.41 and a high of $82.69 during the trading day, PayPal remains committed to enhancing its financial performance and maintaining its position in the competitive digital payments landscape.

• J.P. Morgan maintains an "Overweight" rating for PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL), indicating a positive outlook on the stock's future performance.
• PayPal's fourth-quarter revenue growth and transaction margin dollar metric exceeded expectations, showcasing the company's profitability and operational efficiency.
• Despite a slight underperformance in Payment Service Provider (PSP) volume, PayPal's Total Payments Volume (TPV) growth aligns with estimates, reflecting steady market presence.

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) is a leading digital payments platform that facilitates online money transfers and serves as an electronic alternative to traditional paper methods like checks and money orders. Competing with other payment giants like Square and Stripe, PayPal has established itself as a trusted name in the financial technology sector.

On February 4, 2025, J.P. Morgan maintained its "Overweight" rating for PayPal, with the stock priced at approximately $77.73. This rating suggests that J.P. Morgan believes PayPal's stock will perform better than the average market return. Despite a recent decrease of 13.17% in its stock price, PayPal's market capitalization remains robust at approximately $77.92 billion.

PayPal's fourth-quarter revenue growth of 4% slightly exceeded expectations, as highlighted by JP Morgan analyst Tien-tsin Huang. This growth was supported by a 7% increase in the key transaction margin dollar metric, surpassing JP Morgan and Street estimates of 4% and 3%, respectively. Such performance indicates PayPal's ability to generate more profit from its transactions than anticipated.

The company's Total Payments Volume (TPV) increased by 7%, aligning with JP Morgan and Street estimates. This includes a 6% increase in Brand volume, which remained stable despite accelerating market growth. The U.S. market, in particular, experienced acceleration, contributing to PayPal's overall performance. However, the Payment Service Provider (PSP) volume grew by only 2%, slightly below JP Morgan's estimate of 3%.

PayPal is focusing on its growth strategy for 2025, with strong transaction margin dollars ahead of its Investor Day. Despite the stock's recent drop, reaching a low of $77.41 and a high of $82.69 during the trading day, PayPal remains committed to enhancing its financial performance and maintaining its position in the competitive digital payments landscape.

PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) delivered an optimistic earnings forecast for 2025, outpacing analyst expectations, while fourth-quarter results also came in ahead of estimates, reinforcing signs that the company’s strategic overhaul is gaining traction. However, the company’s shares dropped more than 5% pre-market today.

Under the leadership of CEO Alex Chriss, who took over last year, PayPal has been aggressively cutting costs and redirecting investments toward automation and artificial intelligence. A major shift in focus has also been underway, moving away from lower-margin divisions like Braintree and prioritizing highly profitable segments such as branded checkout.

For the 2025 fiscal year, PayPal expects earnings per share between $4.95 and $5.10, comfortably surpassing Wall Street’s estimate of $4.89. Additionally, first-quarter EPS guidance of $1.15 to $1.17 also exceeded expectations.

CEO Alex Chriss noted that PayPal is experiencing “strong momentum”, positioning the company for sustained growth in 2025, with a key priority being wider adoption of its services.

In the fourth quarter, total payment volume rose 6.8% year-over-year to $437.84 billion, while active customer accounts grew by 1.9% to 434 million. As a leading digital payments provider, PayPal generates substantial revenue through transaction fees, collected from both retailers and consumers.

The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.19, up from $1.14 a year ago, and beating analyst projections of $1.13. With a renewed focus on AI-driven efficiencies and high-margin transactions, PayPal appears poised to unlock greater profitability in the coming year.