BofA Downgrades ProKidney to Underperform on Weaker REACT Outlook

BofA Securities downgraded ProKidney (NASDAQ:PROK) to Underperform from Neutral and cut its price target to $1 from $3, citing a sharply reduced outlook for the company’s sole drug candidate, REACT, targeting diabetic chronic kidney disease. As a result, the company’s shares fell over 10% intra-day today.

The firm’s revised view follows discussions with nephrology experts, which indicated a more challenging competitive landscape and the need for tighter patient segmentation, significantly reducing REACT’s total addressable market. As a result, BofA now models peak sales of $900 million—down from a prior estimate of $1.8 billion—while maintaining a 40% probability of success for the high-risk program.

BofA also expressed caution over the timeline, seeing little chance of advancing pivotal Phase 3 data before the third quarter of 2027, as currently assumed. Combined with a lack of near-term catalysts and ongoing financing risks, the firm believes the stock’s risk/reward profile skews negative.

The new $1 price objective is based on a discounted cash flow analysis incorporating the lower sales potential, reflecting a substantially diminished valuation outlook for ProKidney.