UBS Trims Neurocrine Price Target to $137, Still Sees Upside Amid Biotech Volatility
UBS maintained a Buy rating on Neurocrine Biosciences (NASDAQ:NBIX) but reduced its price target to $137 from $154, reflecting valuation adjustments in a turbulent biotech market.
While trimming the target, UBS remains bullish on the company’s prospects. The firm views Neurocrine as a strong commercial play in a sector increasingly favoring established revenue-generating names over early-stage development stories. The company’s key product, Ingrezza, continues to drive solid growth, while Crenessity’s launch adds a new growth lever.
Notably, Neurocrine faces no major regulatory catalysts for over a year, reducing headline risk and allowing the investment narrative to center on commercial performance and adoption trends.
UBS adjusted its valuation by applying a lower multiple (4.0x vs. 4.2x) to projected 2030 sales of $2.9 billion, citing recent sector-wide multiple compression in biotech. The lower target also reflects a modest increase in share count.
Despite the reduced price objective, UBS sees first-half 2025 as a more favorable setup for hedge fund interest, especially as the memory of past sell-offs—including a failed M4 trial and a disappointing Q4 update—fades and long-only funds begin to re-engage.
With Ingrezza production in Europe versus key competitor Austedo (made in the U.S.), UBS believes supply chain diversification could be a differentiator, especially amid rising geopolitical and trade tensions.
| Symbol | Price | %chg |
|---|---|---|
| SIDO.JK | 530 | 0 |
| TSPC.JK | 2480 | 0 |
| 000100.KS | 107200 | 0 |
| 000105.KS | 96400 | 0 |
Neurocrine Biosciences Review, Ingrezza May Become Pipeline-in-a-Product
Analysts at Oppenheimer provided a review on Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:NBIX), hypothesizing that Ingrezza could become a pipeline-in-a-product.
The analysts are encouraged by Ingrezza's (1) positive Ph3 results in KINECT-HD to support an sNDA filing in H2/22 with potential FDA approval in H2/23 to treat chorea in Huntington Disease (HD), (2) registrational study for Adjunctive Treatment of Schizophrenia (ATS) with topline results expected 2023, and (3) registrational study for Dyskinesia of Cerebal Palsy (DCP) with topline results expected 2024.
Neurocrine Biosciences Shares Up 7% Despite Q4 Miss; Guidance is Optimistic
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:NBIX) shares closed more than 7% higher on Friday, despite the company’s reported Q4 miss, with EPS coming in at $0.04, significantly below the Street estimate of $0.58. Revenue was $303.5 million, compared to the Street estimate of $320 million.
Analysts at Oppenheimer view the company’s guidance as optimistic, stating that they are encouraged by management's decision to provide first-time 2022 Ingrezza sales guidance, which is viewed as a signal of increased confidence and transparency in the business model. The company expects $1.25-$1.35 billion of Ingrezza net sales in 2022 representing 20% growth at the mid-point driven entirely by volume as net price/script of around $5,400 is expected to remain relatively constant.
Neurocrine Biosciences Shares Down 8% Following Q4 Ingrezza Revenue Miss
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:NBIX) shares dropped more than 8% on Friday following the company’s reported preliminary Q4 Ingrezza net revenues, which came in at $301 million ($296 million + $5 million inventory), missing the $305 million consensus estimate. The results were driven by 56,400 unadjusted scripts representing 8% quarter-over-quarter volume growth.
Net pricing saw a slight decline to around $5,300 per script as rebates and discounts overcame the impact of a 4.5% list price increase in Dec 2021. Analysts at Oppenheimer believe this level of net pricing is relatively sustainable over the long term as the company has a solid track record of rational pricing. Analysts added they are encouraged by Ingrezza's volume driven growth despite continued COVID-19 headwinds and look forward to important catalysts in 2022, including sales guidance on Feb 11.
