Microsoft Shares Fall on Slower Cloud Revenue Growth Despite Q4 Earnings Beat

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock fell 6% intra-day today after the tech giant provided a weaker-than-expected growth outlook for its Azure cloud division. Investors also weighed comments from executives on the potential impact of emerging low-cost AI models from China.

In its fiscal second quarter, Azure and other cloud services saw revenue climb 31% year-over-year, slowing slightly from the 33% growth recorded in the prior quarter and falling just short of analyst expectations of 31.9%. Artificial intelligence contributed approximately 13% of this expansion.

For the fiscal third quarter, CFO Amy Hood projected Azure’s growth to range between 31% and 32%, underwhelming analysts who had been expecting a 33% increase.

Despite the modest cloud slowdown, Microsoft’s AI business has seen rapid expansion, surpassing an annual revenue run rate of $13 billion, reflecting a 175% increase year-over-year. The company emphasized its focus on balancing financial discipline with continued investments in cloud and AI infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the rise of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup offering a model that rivals OpenAI’s ChatGPT at a fraction of the cost, was a key topic of discussion. DeepSeek claims its model was built with significantly less-advanced chips for just $6 million, raising questions about the future of AI infrastructure investments.

For the quarter, Microsoft reported earnings of $3.23 per share on revenue of $69.63 billion, exceeding Wall Street estimates of $3.13 per share on $68.92 billion in revenue. However, concerns over Azure’s slowing growth and competitive pressures in AI tempered investor sentiment.

Raymond James analysts reaffirmed a Strong Buy rating on Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), maintaining a price target of $480 ahead of the company's fiscal second-quarter 2025 earnings report scheduled for January 29. Microsoft's position as a leader in AI technology continues to bolster investor confidence, with the company viewed as a key driver of innovation in the tech industry.

Market sentiment remains optimistic, particularly as conversations around artificial intelligence dominate the sector. Microsoft's prominence in this space, coupled with its robust Azure cloud platform, positions it as a critical player in the evolving technology landscape. While questions about rising capital expenditures persist, particularly following intra-quarter commentary, the focus will largely be on Azure's growth trajectory.

Investors are looking for clear return-on-investment (ROI) evidence, such as measurable outcomes from tools like Copilot, although such insights may not be forthcoming this quarter.

The primary hurdle for Microsoft is guiding for an acceleration in Azure growth in the second half of fiscal 2025, a milestone the company appears well-positioned to achieve as supply constraints ease. With its AI capabilities and strong execution in cloud services, the analysts believe Microsoft is expected to maintain its momentum and reinforce its leadership in the tech sector.

UBS analysts raised Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) price target to $525, up from $500, while maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting optimism around the tech giant’s long-term prospects despite some near-term challenges in Azure and AI segments. Currently, the company’s shares are up around 1% in pre-market.

The adjustment to the price target comes with nuanced insights. The analysts noted that while new capacity for Azure is expected to come online in the second half of the fiscal year, growth acceleration may be back-loaded. As a result, UBS trimmed its forecast for Azure’s constant currency growth in Q3 to 34%, down slightly from 35.6%.

Microsoft’s position as a leader in AI and cloud computing remains a key strength, despite concerns over pricing trends. The analysts highlighted that Azure OpenAI API prices are decreasing, potentially impacting revenue in the AI segment. Additionally, speculation about an eventual end to Microsoft’s exclusivity agreement with OpenAI could influence future dynamics but might also open new opportunities.

In the enterprise software arena, more frequent reports of discounts on M365 Copilot pricing suggest competitive pressures, although Microsoft’s premium positioning continues to provide resilience.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported fiscal first-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, driven by solid performance in its cloud segment, Azure. However, shares dropped over 5% intra-day on Thursday due to softer guidance for Azure growth in the upcoming quarter.

For Q1, Microsoft posted earnings per share of $3.30 on $40.59 billion in revenue, compared to the Street forecasts of $5.21 EPS on $40.18 billion in revenue. Azure saw a 33% growth, slightly above the expected 32%, but CFO Amy Hood indicated a projected slowdown in Azure’s growth to between 31% and 32% for Q2, which weighed on investor sentiment.

AI services played a key role in Azure’s growth, contributing 12 percentage points, compared to 11 points last quarter, adding an estimated $1.5 billion in quarterly revenue, according to RBC Capital Markets. However, high capital expenditures, totaling $20 billion, added to concerns.

Barclays analysts expressed caution over near-term growth prospects, noting that AI capacity constraints could limit Azure’s growth acceleration. They suggested that while re-acceleration may materialize in the second half of the fiscal year, the real impact will only be evident with Q3 results in April 2025, creating limited near-term excitement for investors.

• Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported earnings per share of $3.30, surpassing the estimated $3.10, and actual revenue of approximately $65.6 billion, exceeding the estimated $64.6 billion.
• The company's profit of $3.30 per share exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, marking an increase from the $2.99 per share reported in the same quarter last year, driven by a 21% growth in constant revenue within its cloud business.
• Microsoft's strategic focus on artificial intelligence and cloud computing is reflected in its financial metrics, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 36.48 and a price-to-sales ratio of about 13.12.

Microsoft Corporation, trading on the NASDAQ under the symbol MSFT, is a leading technology company known for its software products, cloud services, and hardware. The company competes with other tech giants like Apple, Google, and Amazon. On October 30, 2024, Microsoft reported earnings per share of $3.30, surpassing the estimated $3.10, and actual revenue of approximately $65.6 billion, exceeding the estimated $64.6 billion.

The company's fiscal first-quarter earnings exceeded analysts' expectations, as highlighted by Zacks. Microsoft reported a profit of $3.30 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.08 per share. This marks an increase from the $2.99 per share reported in the same quarter last year. The strong performance is driven by a 21% growth in constant revenue within its cloud business, largely due to the increasing demand for AI solutions.

Microsoft's strategic focus on artificial intelligence and cloud computing is evident in its financial metrics. The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 36.48, indicating the price investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at about 13.12, reflecting the market's valuation of its revenue. The enterprise value to sales ratio is around 13.44, suggesting how the market values the company relative to its sales, including debt and excluding cash.

The company's financial health is further supported by its debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.21, indicating a relatively low level of debt compared to equity. Microsoft's current ratio is about 1.27, showing a good level of liquidity to cover its short-term liabilities. The enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is approximately 27.80, highlighting the company's valuation in relation to its cash flow from operations. These metrics underscore Microsoft's strong financial position and its ability to invest in growth areas like AI and cloud computing.

Oppenheimer analysts downgraded Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) to Perform from Outperform, citing concerns over overly optimistic revenue and earnings projections. The analysts emphasized that OpenAI’s anticipated losses, projected between $2-3 billion for 2025, were not initially factored into previous estimates. As enterprises remain cautious in adopting AI technology, related revenues are expected to underperform, further impacting Microsoft’s bottom line.

Additional challenges include increased CapEx, which could drive up depreciation costs, along with reduced interest income and higher operational expenses to support AI advancements. Given Microsoft's strategic focus on long-term innovation rather than short-term margin growth, the analysts suggest that expanding profitability may take a backseat for now. With the company’s shares currently trading around the midpoint of its historical 25x-35x P/E range, the analysts believe they may trend toward the lower end, particularly as the company faces slower-than-anticipated AI adoption and potential revenue shortfalls.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) announced that its board has authorized a new share buyback program valued at up to $60 billion, while also increasing its quarterly dividend. The tech giant declared a quarterly dividend of $0.83 per share, marking a 10% increase from the previous quarter.

In July, Microsoft reported strong quarterly earnings, though these were tempered by a significant rise in capital expenditures as the company ramps up investments in artificial intelligence (AI). Revenue from its Azure cloud division, which plays a crucial role in the company’s AI initiatives, experienced a slowdown during the quarter. However, Microsoft expects growth in this segment to accelerate by late 2025.

The company, along with other major tech firms, is in a race to demonstrate the value of the billions of dollars invested in AI over the past year. Thus far, most tech peers have yet to see significant returns on these investments. Additionally, Microsoft confirmed that its annual shareholders meeting will take place on December 10.