Moderna Stock Surges 6% on Expectations of Up to $15 Billion in Sales From New Drugs

Emmanuel Papadakis of Deutsche Bank recently adjusted the price target for Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) to $85, a notable decrease from its current trading price of approximately $124.06. This new target suggests a significant potential downside of about 31.48%, as reported by TheFly. This adjustment reflects a cautious outlook on Moderna's stock, moving up from a previous target of $70. The revision in the price target comes amidst concerns surrounding Moderna's latest vaccine developments and their implications on the company's valuation and future growth prospects.

Moderna, a leader in mRNA technology, has encountered skepticism with its second vaccine designed to combat a common respiratory virus. This skepticism, as highlighted by Gerry Smith on Bloomberg Television, raises questions about the efficacy and future potential of mRNA technology—a cornerstone of Moderna's success in the pharmaceutical industry. Such developments could potentially impact investor confidence and the company's stock performance, aligning with the rationale behind Deutsche Bank's revised price target.

At present, MRNA is trading at $123.32, experiencing a slight increase of 1.17%. Despite today's fluctuations, with prices ranging from $121.735 to $125.5, the stock has seen a broad range over the past year, from $62.55 to $142.79. Moderna's market capitalization stands at approximately $47.26 billion, with a trading volume of 1,430,999 shares on the NASDAQ exchange. These figures underscore the company's significant presence in the market, despite the current challenges and uncertainties it faces.

The concerns over Moderna's new vaccine and the broader implications for mRNA technology could be contributing factors to the revised price target set by Deutsche Bank. The skepticism surrounding the effectiveness of Moderna's second vaccine not only puts the spotlight on the company's innovative approach but also on the inherent risks and challenges of pioneering new medical technologies. As Moderna navigates these hurdles, the financial community will closely watch how these developments affect the company's stock value and its position within the competitive pharmaceutical landscape.

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) exceeded analyst expectations with its first-quarter earnings and revenue, leading to a 9% increase in its share price intra-day today. The pharmaceutical company reported a loss per share of $3.07, which was better than the anticipated loss of $3.55. Revenue significantly exceeded projections, reaching $167 million compared to the expected $94.28 million.

Research and Development (R&D) expenses totaled $1.06 billion, which was lower than the anticipated $1.14 billion. Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses amounted to $274 million, a 10% decrease from the previous year and also lower than the expected $329 million.

For the year ahead, Moderna projects capital expenditures of around $900 million and maintains its forecast for product sales to reach approximately $4 billion in 2024. The company also expects to receive initial regulatory approvals for its RSV vaccine, mRNA-1345, in the first half of 2024, aiming for a U.S. launch in the fall of 2024.

On Thursday, May 2, 2024, Moderna (MRNA:NASDAQ) shared its earnings details before the market opened, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of -$3.07, which was better than what analysts had expected. The forecast had been for an EPS of -$3.56. This performance is particularly noteworthy because it indicates that the company managed to limit its losses more effectively than anticipated. Additionally, Moderna's revenue for the quarter was $167 million, which not only surpassed the estimated revenue of about $93.26 million but also showed a significant improvement over analysts' expectations.

The reported quarterly loss of $3.07 per share by Moderna outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which had predicted a loss of $3.59 per share. This outcome is a departure from the company's earnings in the same quarter of the previous year, which were at $0.19 per share. The earnings surprise of 14.48% for this quarter continues Moderna's trend of exceeding consensus EPS estimates, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of such performance. In the quarter before this, Moderna had turned a projected loss into a profit, surprising analysts with earnings of $0.55 per share against an expected loss of $0.78 per share, which was a 170.51% surprise.

Despite a decrease from the previous year's revenues of $1.86 billion, the $167 million revenue for the quarter ending March 2024 exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 33.88%. This demonstrates Moderna's ability to maintain strong revenue performance even as it navigates the challenges within the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. The company's strategic initiatives, such as cost-cutting measures, have begun to positively impact its financial health, as highlighted by CNBC Television. These efforts, along with robust Covid vaccine sales that surpassed estimates, underscore Moderna's resilience and adaptability in a fluctuating market.

Furthermore, Moderna is preparing to launch a new RSV vaccine, a strategic move as the global demand for Covid vaccines starts to wane. The company has maintained its sales guidance for the full year of 2024, projecting about $4 billion in revenue, which includes expected revenue from the RSV vaccine launch. The anticipated U.S. approval for the RSV vaccine by May 12, with a launch planned for the third quarter, represents a significant milestone for Moderna. CEO Stéphane Bancel's emphasis on the company's progress in reducing operating expenses and resizing the company effectively reflects a strategic approach to navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.

In summary, Moderna's latest earnings report showcases a company that is not only managing to exceed financial expectations but is also strategically positioning itself for future growth. With a focus on cost reduction, exceeding sales forecasts for its Covid vaccine, and the anticipated launch of an RSV vaccine, Moderna is demonstrating its ability to adapt and thrive in the ever-evolving pharmaceutical industry.

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) stock climbed more than 6% yesterday following promising results from an early-stage trial of its personalized cancer vaccine, developed in partnership with Merck, for a specific type of head and neck cancer. This vaccine aims to prime patients' immune systems to identify and eliminate cancer cells based on their unique mutations.

Previously, the vaccine demonstrated potential in a mid-stage study for treating melanoma. According to Jefferies analysts, these results further endorse the personalized therapy approach and hint at its applicability beyond melanoma. The combination of the vaccine, mRNA-4157, with Keytruda showed a notable improvement in survival rates compared to previous studies where Keytruda was used alone.

The findings, unveiled at the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting in San Diego, indicated that the vaccine combination activated immune responses in patients and was found to be safe and well-tolerated. With a nearly 14% increase in its share price this year, Moderna is looking to diversify its vaccine portfolio, which includes candidates for respiratory syncytial virus and cancer, to compensate for the expected downturn in COVID product sales.

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) released its 2023 product sales figures, which exceeded analysts' expectations.

The biotechnology company reported unaudited product sales of about $6.7 billion for the year, surpassing the consensus forecast of $6.38 billion. A significant development for Moderna was the increase in its U.S. market share for COVID-19 vaccines, which climbed to 48% in 2023, up from 37% the previous year.

Looking ahead, Moderna maintained its forecast for product sales of around $4 billion in 2024, with an aim to return to sales growth in 2025. The company is targeting a break-even point in 2026, which it plans to achieve through a mix of new product launches and judicious investment strategies.

Further underscoring its ongoing innovation, Moderna pointed to nine late-stage programs in its pipeline, with key milestones expected in 2024 and 2025.

In its financial outlook for 2024-2026, Moderna laid out plans indicating a path to profitability for its COVID-19 vaccine portfolio, with a specific goal of reaching break-even by 2026.

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) announced second-quarter results that surpassed expectations, even though its revenue experienced a significant decline due to decreased demand for its COVID-19 vaccine after the peak of the pandemic.

Q2 total revenue for the U.S. biotech company amounted to $344 million, representing a substantial 93% drop compared to the $4.75 billion recorded during the same period last year. Despite this decline, the reported revenue still exceeded the Street estimate of $321.8 million.

As a result of the positive earnings report, Moderna's shares saw an increase of more than 2% intra-day today.