Meta Platforms' Financial Outlook and Strategic Focus on AI

Needham upgraded Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) to Hold from Underperform, citing recent channel checks that point to potential upside in its estimates and highlighting Meta’s exceptional labor productivity driven by its highly scalable, software-only economic model.

The firm noted Meta’s unique advantages—including not paying for content, leveraging mobile device ecosystems, and offering closed-loop attribution for advertisers—which together enable industry-leading efficiency. However, Needham stopped short of a Buy rating, remaining cautious due to several concerns: Meta’s sprawling strategy could dilute focus and waste capital; structural pressures on margins and free cash flow; high stock-based compensation per employee, which could lead to understated labor costs and dilution; and significant ongoing regulatory risks.

Needham also pointed to investor sentiment, observing that roughly 90% of analysts covering Meta have Buy or Strong Buy ratings, suggesting to the firm that the stock is likely over-owned and limiting further upside. The upgrade reflects acknowledgment of Meta’s near-term estimate strength, but the Hold rating signals skepticism about sustained long-term outperformance given these headwinds.

Citi is maintaining its bullish stance on Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), reiterating a Buy rating and a $690 price target following the tech giant’s $14.3 billion investment in Scale AI. The deal grants Meta a 49% stake in the artificial intelligence firm, valuing Scale AI at $29 billion based on projected 2026 revenues of around $4 billion—a valuation roughly 7 times enterprise value to sales.

This strategic move deepens Meta’s commitment to AI innovation. As part of the agreement, Scale AI’s CEO Alexandr Wang will join Meta’s newly formed superintelligence team, although he will remain on Scale’s board. Jason Droege, formerly Chief Strategy Officer, will serve as interim CEO at Scale.

The investment is expected to accelerate Meta’s development of foundational AI technologies and large language models, particularly as it works to bring its next-generation Llama 4 model to market. The initiative aligns with Meta’s broader revamp of its AI leadership and its ambition to create a foundational AI operating system.

With over a billion monthly active users for Meta AI, enhanced recommendation systems, and improving engagement and conversion rates, Citi sees Meta as well-positioned to lead in the AI race. The Scale AI partnership is viewed as a strategic lever that could significantly amplify Meta’s long-term capabilities in the space.

Loop Capital lowered its price target on Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) from $900 to $695 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing concerns about weakening ad pricing pressure ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings report, scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

The firm expects Meta to deliver solid Q1 results but warns that management may offer a softer second-quarter outlook. A key issue is the pullback by Chinese cross-border advertisers, who have been scaling back spending in the U.S. due to changes around the de minimis exemption and new tariff pressures. Since Meta is a primary channel for customer acquisition, the drop in aggressive Chinese ad spending is reducing bidding competition and dragging down overall ad prices.

Loop Capital estimates that about 40% of the revenue associated with this previously high-spending cohort could be lost, though some of that impact may be offset as ad inventory shifts to the next-highest bidders. Adding to the challenge, consumer engagement metrics like click-through and conversion rates have been weakening, which could force further budget reductions from performance marketers if the trend continues.

The analysts now project Meta will guide second-quarter revenue to between $40.5 billion and $43.0 billion, slightly below the current consensus of $43.9 billion. While lower than previous expectations, they believe this guidance could still be better than the market currently fears.

Despite the near-term pressures, Loop Capital continues to see upside for Meta longer term, justifying the maintained Buy rating even as caution grows around short-term advertising dynamics.

Loop Capital lowered its price target on Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) from $900 to $695 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing concerns about weakening ad pricing pressure ahead of the company’s first-quarter earnings report, scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

The firm expects Meta to deliver solid Q1 results but warns that management may offer a softer second-quarter outlook. A key issue is the pullback by Chinese cross-border advertisers, who have been scaling back spending in the U.S. due to changes around the de minimis exemption and new tariff pressures. Since Meta is a primary channel for customer acquisition, the drop in aggressive Chinese ad spending is reducing bidding competition and dragging down overall ad prices.

Loop Capital estimates that about 40% of the revenue associated with this previously high-spending cohort could be lost, though some of that impact may be offset as ad inventory shifts to the next-highest bidders. Adding to the challenge, consumer engagement metrics like click-through and conversion rates have been weakening, which could force further budget reductions from performance marketers if the trend continues.

The analysts now project Meta will guide second-quarter revenue to between $40.5 billion and $43.0 billion, slightly below the current consensus of $43.9 billion. While lower than previous expectations, they believe this guidance could still be better than the market currently fears.

Despite the near-term pressures, Loop Capital continues to see upside for Meta longer term, justifying the maintained Buy rating even as caution grows around short-term advertising dynamics.

Scotiabank reduced its price target on Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) to $525 from $627, while maintaining a Sector Perform rating, citing a convergence of headwinds weighing on the stock.

Meta shares have fallen roughly 16% year-to-date as investors react to a combination of macro uncertainty, weakening digital ad trends, and the sharp pullback in ad spending from Chinese e-commerce players—most notably Temu, which had accounted for about 5-6% of Meta’s revenue. Data from app stores suggests a steep decline in ad impressions after Temu halted its campaigns, a trend that could continue dragging on Meta’s top line.

Even though third-party data indicates that Meta’s revenue is currently trending slightly above sell-side expectations, analysts are expected to keep lowering their forecasts given the slowdown in Chinese direct-to-consumer ad budgets and the broader market retreat.

On top of advertising pressures, Meta is also contending with legal challenges. The company’s recent $450 million settlement offer to the FTC was far below the regulator’s $30 billion ask, and regulatory risks remain elevated. Hopes that a Trump-led FTC would ease scrutiny have not materialized, as the agency continues aggressive oversight.

According to the bank, rising tariff-related import costs may further weigh on advertising partner budgets, potentially compounding the softness in Meta’s ad business.

Scotiabank reduced its price target on Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) to $525 from $627, while maintaining a Sector Perform rating, citing a convergence of headwinds weighing on the stock.

Meta shares have fallen roughly 16% year-to-date as investors react to a combination of macro uncertainty, weakening digital ad trends, and the sharp pullback in ad spending from Chinese e-commerce players—most notably Temu, which had accounted for about 5-6% of Meta’s revenue. Data from app stores suggests a steep decline in ad impressions after Temu halted its campaigns, a trend that could continue dragging on Meta’s top line.

Even though third-party data indicates that Meta’s revenue is currently trending slightly above sell-side expectations, analysts are expected to keep lowering their forecasts given the slowdown in Chinese direct-to-consumer ad budgets and the broader market retreat.

On top of advertising pressures, Meta is also contending with legal challenges. The company’s recent $450 million settlement offer to the FTC was far below the regulator’s $30 billion ask, and regulatory risks remain elevated. Hopes that a Trump-led FTC would ease scrutiny have not materialized, as the agency continues aggressive oversight.

According to the bank, rising tariff-related import costs may further weigh on advertising partner budgets, potentially compounding the softness in Meta’s ad business.

Bank of America is maintaining a Buy rating and $765 price target on Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) as the company reportedly gears up to introduce a new line of premium smart glasses—a potential game-changer for its hardware strategy.

The upcoming device, codenamed Hypernova, is expected to launch by the end of the year with a price tag between $1,000 and $1,400. According to reports, these next-gen glasses will come equipped with an integrated display for real-time updates, an enhanced camera on par with smartphones, a built-in AI assistant, and multiple input methods, including gesture control and a neural wristband that interprets brain signals.

Bank of America sees this product as a potential step forward in bridging the gap between augmented reality and daily usability, especially when compared to bulkier VR headsets. Still, success will depend on overcoming critical barriers like battery life, comfort, pricing, and—most importantly—the development of a killer app that drives broad consumer adoption.

At current trading levels around $580, Meta is valued at just 20x its 2026 projected GAAP EPS, or 16x excluding the costs of Reality Labs, suggesting that investors may be assigning little to no value to its hardware initiatives.

If the company can gain traction with its smart glasses, it could enhance control over its ecosystem, from user experience to data and distribution, further strengthening its core advertising and social media businesses. Meta may also unlock new revenue streams through AI-powered tools, accessories, and subscription offerings.

Bank of America believes the upcoming launch could be pivotal in shifting market perception of Meta’s Reality Labs division—from a costly experiment to a strategic asset with monetization potential.