Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) Stock Analysis: A Closer Look at Recent Analyst Adjustments

Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) topped first-quarter earnings expectations, but a combination of soaring cocoa costs and lower margins led to cautious guidance.

The company posted adjusted earnings of $0.74 per share, ahead of the $0.66 analyst consensus. However, this marked an 18.3% decline year-over-year on a constant currency basis, highlighting the impact of mounting input cost pressures. Revenue came in at $9.31 billion—just shy of the $9.34 billion estimate—but rose 0.2% from the prior year. Organic net revenue increased 3.1%, fueled by price hikes that helped offset a 3.5% drop in volume and product mix.

The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 outlook for approximately 5% organic net revenue growth but warned that adjusted EPS is expected to decline around 10% on a constant currency basis. Management attributed the drop to “unprecedented” cocoa inflation, which has significantly driven up raw material and production costs.

Gross profit margin fell sharply to 26.1%, down 2,500 basis points, hit by mark-to-market losses on commodity and currency derivatives along with rising transportation and input expenses.

Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) topped first-quarter earnings expectations, but a combination of soaring cocoa costs and lower margins led to cautious guidance.

The company posted adjusted earnings of $0.74 per share, ahead of the $0.66 analyst consensus. However, this marked an 18.3% decline year-over-year on a constant currency basis, highlighting the impact of mounting input cost pressures. Revenue came in at $9.31 billion—just shy of the $9.34 billion estimate—but rose 0.2% from the prior year. Organic net revenue increased 3.1%, fueled by price hikes that helped offset a 3.5% drop in volume and product mix.

The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 outlook for approximately 5% organic net revenue growth but warned that adjusted EPS is expected to decline around 10% on a constant currency basis. Management attributed the drop to “unprecedented” cocoa inflation, which has significantly driven up raw material and production costs.

Gross profit margin fell sharply to 26.1%, down 2,500 basis points, hit by mark-to-market losses on commodity and currency derivatives along with rising transportation and input expenses.

Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) saw its stock decline over 4% in pre-market today after reporting weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and issuing a cautious outlook for 2025.

The snack giant posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.65, falling short of analysts’ $0.68 forecast. Revenue also disappointed, coming in at $9.6 billion versus the expected $9.72 billion.

Despite the Q4 miss, Mondelez delivered solid full-year results for 2024, with organic net revenue rising 4.3% to $36.4 billion. Adjusted earnings per share climbed 13% on a constant currency basis, reaching $3.36.

However, the outlook for 2025 raised concerns. While the company expects organic revenue growth of approximately 5%, adjusted EPS is projected to decline by about 10% on a constant currency basis, with soaring cocoa costs posing a major challenge. Mondelez also anticipates generating over $3 billion in free cash flow next year.

The company remains confident in its long-term growth strategy, emphasizing its ability to navigate inflationary pressures in its chocolate business. However, with cocoa prices at record highs, investors appear cautious about the impact on profitability moving forward.

Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) saw its stock decline over 4% in pre-market today after reporting weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and issuing a cautious outlook for 2025.

The snack giant posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.65, falling short of analysts’ $0.68 forecast. Revenue also disappointed, coming in at $9.6 billion versus the expected $9.72 billion.

Despite the Q4 miss, Mondelez delivered solid full-year results for 2024, with organic net revenue rising 4.3% to $36.4 billion. Adjusted earnings per share climbed 13% on a constant currency basis, reaching $3.36.

However, the outlook for 2025 raised concerns. While the company expects organic revenue growth of approximately 5%, adjusted EPS is projected to decline by about 10% on a constant currency basis, with soaring cocoa costs posing a major challenge. Mondelez also anticipates generating over $3 billion in free cash flow next year.

The company remains confident in its long-term growth strategy, emphasizing its ability to navigate inflationary pressures in its chocolate business. However, with cocoa prices at record highs, investors appear cautious about the impact on profitability moving forward.

• Analysts have lowered the consensus price target for Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) from $76.9 to $61, indicating a more cautious outlook.
• Despite the decline, some analysts, like Morgan Stanley's Pamela Kaufman, remain optimistic with a price target of $73.
• Mondelez's innovation and expansion in the snack food industry, including new product launches, are seen as positive drivers for future stock performance.

Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) is a prominent player in the global snack food and beverage industry, boasting a diverse range of popular brands like Cadbury, Oreo, and Trident. The company's stock is frequently analyzed by experts, offering insights into its potential market performance. Recently, analysts have adjusted their price targets, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards the company's future.

Over the past year, the consensus price target for Mondelez's stock has seen a notable decline. A year ago, the average price target was $76.9, but it has since decreased to $61 in the last quarter and month. This change suggests a more cautious outlook from analysts, possibly due to various factors such as market conditions and competitive pressures. As highlighted by Zacks, analysts are predicting a decline in Mondelez's earnings in the upcoming financial report, which may have influenced these revised projections.

Despite the lowered price targets, some analysts maintain a positive outlook. Morgan Stanley's Pamela Kaufman has set a price target of $73 for Mondelez, indicating confidence in the company's potential. Mondelez's efforts to expand its product offerings, such as the introduction of CHIPS AHOY!'s new thick, square, soft-baked blondies, demonstrate its commitment to innovation and consumer engagement. These initiatives could positively impact the company's stock performance in the long run.

The snacking industry is expected to continue growing, with Mondelez, PepsiCo, and General Mills leading the way. Mondelez is highlighted as a key player in this thriving sector, with analysts like Kaufman expressing optimism about its future. Investors should consider these factors, along with the recent price target changes, when evaluating Mondelez's stock. Staying informed about the company's financial health and market trends is crucial for making well-informed investment decisions.

Analysts at RBC Capital provided their outlook on Mondelez International, Inc. (NASDAQ:MDLZ) ahead of the company’s upcoming Q4 results, expecting organic sales growth of 8.3% year-over-year (vs. Street’s 10.6%) and EPS of $0.68 (vs. Street’s $0.70).

For fiscal 2023, the analysts expect the company to provide initial guidance in line with its long-term algorithm with solid top-line momentum in the US and international markets, excluding Europe. The analysts expect top-line growth guidance of 4-5% (vs. Street’s 6%). On the bottom line, the analysts are calling for EPS of $3.03, below the Street estimate of $3.11.