Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) on Q1 2021 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: Good morning, everyone and welcome to Lowe's Companies First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Melisa and I'll be your operator for today's call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kate Pearlman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Kate Pearlman: Marvin Ellison: Good morning, everyone. I'd like to begin by thanking our frontline associates for their continued hard work and commitment to the company. We would also like to extend our thoughts and prayers to our associates in India, who are grappling with an aggressive resurgence of COVID in the country. At Lowe's we have associates in Bangalore, India in our digital information technology and finance functions, who played a key role in our transformation efforts over the past 2 years. To help our team in India safeguard their health, we've sent personal protective equipment to our team members there. We've also made financial commitments to support nonprofit organizations in India that are working to respond to this humanitarian crisis. As we’ve moved into the second year of the pandemic, we remain focused on our number one priority, which has always been protecting the health and safety of our associates and communities. And with that in mind, in Q1, we invested nearly $60 million in support of COVID safety protocols. Now turning to our results. Our outstanding performance continued this quarter with total company comparable sales growth of 25.9%. Our U.S comps were 24.4% with broad based growth across all geographic regions and divisions. In fact, for the quarter comp sales for all 15 U.S regions exceeded 80% and all U.S divisions exceeded 20%. During the quarter, operating margin expanded 313 basis points on an adjusted basis, leading to diluted earnings per share of $3.21, which is an 81% increase on an adjusted basis over the prior year. Our outperformance in operating margin was supported by our continued transition to an everyday competitive price strategy as well as our disciplined pricing and product cost management strategies. Bill Boltz: Thanks, Marvin and good morning, everyone. We delivered U.S comparable sales growth of 24.4% in the first quarter. Our compelling offerings great values and improved in stocks allowed us to capitalize on the continued strong demand for home improvement products. Consistent with recent trends growth was broad based across Pro and DIY customers, in-store and online and across product categories. In fact, 13 of 15 merchandising departments generated comps over 15% in all merchandising departments were up more than 20% on a 2-year comp basis. As Marvin described, we were extremely pleased with how consumers responded to our SpringFest event. Similar to our approach to the winter holidays, we extended this event across 4 weeks to create a new sense of excitement and to prompt return trips, while also avoiding congestion in our stores. a required my Lowe's activation online: Turning now to our top performing categories. Lumber again delivered the highest comp driven by strong Pro demand and unprecedented inflation in the category. Over the past year as lumber products have been in tight supply, our merchants have worked closely with our suppliers and successfully secured new sources and additional product to assure that we can maintain a competitive in-stock position in the category. Strong in-stocks in this tight market have allowed us to continue to strengthen customer relationships, especially with the Pro. In addition to lumber, we delivered comps exceeding 30% in electrical, decor, kitchens and bath and seasonal and outdoor living. Our electrical category posted strong comps in the quarter driven by inflation in copper as well as solid demand from the robust repair remodel market. Joe McFarland: Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. In the first quarter, our associates were laser-focused on providing excellent customer service, supporting a safe store environment and delivering record sales volumes. As Marvin mentioned, 100% of our stores earned a winning together profit sharing bonus, a record $152 million payout to our frontline hourly associates. I would like to thank our associates for their continued dedication and providing world class customer service. As Marvin mentioned, our focus on perpetual productivity improvement or PPI initiative continued to yield results during this quarter. As we leverage store payroll by using technology to reduce tasking hours, improve customer service and increase sales productivity. For example, we rolled out digital signs first in appliances and most recently in our lumber department. These signs cut down on associate tasking labor and they also support better product margin performance as we can now more rapidly implement price changes in line with the market. We're also leveraging an improved freight flow app, creating a fully digital process that gives our associates better line of sight to when products will arrive at our stores. The app which was developed in-house even helps store associates to prioritize the incoming merchandise so they can quickly and efficiently position the product on the sales floor for our customers. And we launched secure mobile checkout, which we're using to improve speed of service in high traffic areas inside the store and on the exterior of the store in areas such as outside lawn and garden, and under the Pro canopy. This checkout app developed in-house is allowing us to take care of customers from scanning items, tendering payment, and printing or emailing receipts. before they even join a line. Our customers are delighted with the solution, especially on busy weekends. We're also driving productivity in our in-store fulfillment. This quarter, we expanded our contactless shopping options by completing the rollout of BOPIS lockers to 100% of our U.S stores in April. Customers really enjoy these touchless easy to use lockers. In fact, this has already become the highest rated store fulfillment options. Having BOPIS lockers in 100% of our U.S stores will allow us to expand our omni-channel capabilities, further improve customer satisfaction and limit customer congestion at our service desk. Turning to our Pros. As Marvin mentioned, Pro outpaced DIY in the quarter with over 30% comps. We continue to gain momentum with the Pro through our improved in-stock inventory levels, our enhanced service offerings and our new Pro loyalty program. Our pro sales associates have also begun to leverage our new CRM platform to proactively engage with our Pro customers and sell the entire project to them. Our most compelling growth opportunity with the Pro is expanding the share of wallet with our existing customers. Our new CRM platform as well as the redesign store layout that aligns product adjacencies enable us to more effectively serve their needs for the entire project across all of their jobs. And we continue to enhance the shopping experience for our Pro customers, small to medium sized businesses who are always pressed for time. We're launching a tailored shopping experience created specifically for Pros to ensure that the time they spend away from their job site is efficient and productive. We're introducing new convenience products at checkout and services like dedicated Pro trailer parking and phone charging stations, all designed to help add value to each trip the Pros take, thus cutting down on the number of stops they make throughout the day. We're also enhancing their online experiences with the ongoing migration of Lowe's for Pros to the cloud. This will give our Pro customers access to incremental options that our DIY customers already have on Lowes.com and it will allow us to more quickly add new Pro only features in the future, including a personalized app experience. Both in-store and online we continue to demonstrate that Lowe's is on a mission to be the new home for Pros. As Marvin mentioned, we are seeing terrific momentum in our installation business with over 60% comps this quarter. As a reminder, just 2 years ago, this was a money losing business and poor customer satisfaction. Although we are lapping Q1 2020 results that were pressured by COVID, we are very pleased with the overall execution and trajectory of this business. In closing, I cannot be more pleased with the improvements we are making in our stores, as reflected in our strong Net Promoter scores in a recent third party study. Our executive officers, senior officers, merchants and field leaders are visiting stores on a weekly basis to ensure that we are listening to and supporting our frontline associates. This remains a very difficult environment to operate retail stores in and I could not be prouder of the accomplishments of this team and their commitment and hard work from our frontline associates. With that, I'll turn it over to Dave. David Denton: Thank you, Joe. I'll begin this morning with a few comments on the company's robust capital allocation program. In Q1, we generated $4 billion in free cash flow driven by improved operational execution and continued strong consumer demand. We return $3.5 billion to our shareholders through both a combination of dividends and share repurchases. During the quarter, we paid $440 million in dividends at $0.60 per share. We also repurchased 16.8 million shares for $3.1 billion at an average price of approximately $182 a share. We have approximately $17 billion remaining on our share repurchase authorization. Capital expenditures totaled $461 million in the quarter as we invest in our strategic initiatives to drive the business and to support our growth. We ended the quarter with $6.7 billion of cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet, which includes proceeds from our $2 billion notes offering in March. In addition, we entered into a $1 billion term loan facility in April, which remains undrawn. Our balance sheet remains extremely healthy with adjusted debt to EBITDA at 2.07x at the end of the quarter. well below our long-term target of 2.75x. Now turning to the income statement. In Q1, we generated diluted earnings per share of $3.21, an increase of 81% compared to adjusted diluted earnings per share last year. This growth was due to strong sales growth, improved gross margin rate and SG&A leverage as a result of strong execution across many facets of our business. Please note that in the prior year quarter there was a very modest impact on diluted earnings per share related to the Canadian restructuring effort. My comments from this point forward will include approximations when appropriate and comparisons to certain non-GAAP measures where applicable. Strong sales growth was driven by several factors, including a continued consumer focused on the home, a favorable weather backdrop across the country, commodity inflation, especially within the lumber category, consumer support from the March government stimulus package and our improved execution as we continue to elevate our product and service offerings. Q1 sales were $24.4 billion, driven by a comparable sales increase of 25.9%. This was a result of a balanced contribution for both ticket and transactions as comparable average store ticket grew 14.1% and transaction count grew 11.8% with strong repeat rates from both new and existing customers. While a little difficult to measure, we estimate that the March government stimulus checks grow 300 basis points of growth, while commodity inflation benefitted comps by 460 basis points in the quarter. Lumber and other commodity prices remained at elevated levels versus last year. U.S comp sales were up 24.4% in the quarter. Consistent with the results from the past few quarters, growth was well-balanced across DIY and Pro customers, selling channels, geographies, and nearly all merchandise departments. Our U.S comps were 24% in February, 35.9% in March and 13.9% in April. February comps were negatively impacted by the harsh winter storms that hit Texas and several other states, while March were positively impacted by storm recovery and the third round of stimulus. Additionally, we began cycling last year's COVID related spikes in demand in the second half of April and those more difficult comparisons impacted April comps. Looking at U.S comp growth on a 2-year basis from 2019 to '21, February sales increased 30.3%, March increased 48.1% and April increased 37.1%. Gross margin was 33.29%, up 19 basis points from last year and up 183 basis points as compared to Q1 of '19. Product margin rate improved 165 basis points. As Bill mentioned, our teams effectively leveraged our merchandising excellent strategy to manage product cost and retail pricing throughout the quarter. While we are seeing inflation in some product categories, our merchants work to diligently mitigate and minimize vendor cost increases. Additionally, our supply chain team leveraged our scale and carrier relationships to minimize distribution cost pressures experienced throughout the retail sector. On the pricing side, our shift to an everyday competitive price strategy continue to benefit our margins in Q1 as we leverage enhanced pricing tools to improve margin across the array of products that we sell. We began to see improving trends from our increased focus on shrink control this quarter. With shrink improving sequentially from Q4 of 2020, however, results pressure gross margin by 15 basis points versus last year. We expect that our shrink performance will continue to improve as they move throughout the year. These benefits to product margin rate were partially offset by 90 basis points of pressure from product mix shifts due to lumber inflation and a less favorable product mix, 20 basis points of pressure from supply chain costs as we continue to invest in our omni-channel capabilities and 20 basis points of pressure from credit revenue. SG&A of 18.4% levered 288 basis points compared to adjusted SG&A and LY, driven primarily by lower COVID related cost as well as operating costs leverage resulting from strong sales and our ongoing productivity from our PPI initiatives. As anticipated, we incurred nearly $60 million of COVID related expenses as compared to approximately $320 million of COVID related expenses last year. The $260 million reduction in these expenses generated 140 basis points of SG&A leverage. Additionally, strong sales and a focus on efficiency and productivity allowed us to generate leverage of 100 basis points in operating salaries, 35 basis points in occupancy expense, and 5 basis points in advertising. Now, operating profit was $3.2 billion, an increase of 63% over LY. Operating margins of 13.3% of sales for the quarter was up 317 basis points to the prior year, driven by both improved operating leverage and improved gross margin rate. The effective tax rate was 23.5%. The tax rate was slightly lower-than-expected, primarily due to a tax benefit related to the vesting of certain employee stock options. We continue to build up our inventory levels throughout the quarter to meet the sustained high levels of customer demand, while improving our in-stock position. At quarter end, inventory was $18.4 billion, up $2.2 billion from Q4 levels in line with seasonal patterns. This reflects an increase of $4.1 billion from Q1 of 2020 when inventory levels were pressured due to unexpected spikes in demand as well as COVID related supply disruptions. Of note, this includes a year-over-year increase of $780 million related specifically to inflation. Now before I close, let me comment on our current trends and how we're planning our business for the balance of 2021. Our year-to-date results are tracking ahead of the robust market scenario that we covered in our December investor update. The underlying drivers of home improvement demand appeared to be more resilient and stable than we originally forecasted. Those factors build our confidence in our ability to deliver strong results on top of an exceptional year in 2020, including 12% operating margins and flat gross margin rates for the year. We remain confident that our total home strategy will enable us to capture market share. We are very encouraged by our performance in Q1, including our strong sales volume even as we began to cycle last year's mid April surge in demand. Month-to-date, May U.S comp sales trends are materially consistent with April performance levels on a 2-year comparable basis. Looking forward, year-over-year comparisons remain difficult throughout the remainder of the year. Also we continue to see COVID restrictions in some areas across Canada. As markets reopen, we are closely monitoring consumer behavior, anticipating a potential modest shift in spending away from the home. We remain agile and ready to respond to whatever environment we face this year, with our focus on gaining market share throughout 2021 while improving operating margins. With regards to our quarterly performance, please note that we are cycling particularly high gross margin levels in Q2 of LY. In the prior quarter, there was an industry wide pullback in promotions and a more favorable product mix. As a result, we currently anticipate a moderate decline in gross margin rates in Q2. Despite this moderate year-over-year decline, our gross margin rate is expected to expand nicely over pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Investments in pricing, vendor cost management and our everyday competitive promotional strategy have been driving improvements in our gross margin performance over the past 2 years. As I stated earlier, we continue to expect to deliver flat gross margin rates for 2021. Further, we expect the business to generate robust levels of free cash flow. We plan to invest $2 billion in CapEx this year to drive future growth and returns. As we continued our disciplined approach to capital allocation with $9 billion in planned share repurchases this year, while also supporting our dividend. In closing, we're very excited about the momentum in our business and our ability to deliver significant shareholder value over the long-term. With that, we are now ready for questions. Operator: Our first question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question. Simeon Gutman: Hey, good morning, everyone. My first question is, can you provide an update on where Pro penetration can move to over time and maybe some level of growth that you expect going forward? And I'm asking because I think part of the margin story is getting higher sales per foot. And I think Pro seems to be a big opportunity there. So curious, I don't know Marvin, or David, if you can update us on that area? Marvin Ellison: Hey, Simeon, this is Marvin. We purposely have not set a target for Pro penetration. As I mentioned in my prepared comments, we really started focusing on the basics. And now we're elevating to a more strategic phase in Pro. We also stated a while back that we estimate our Pro penetration, today its between 20% and 25%. Having said that, based on my history in this business and the space in Joe's history and experience in this space, we can see over time our Pro penetration getting between 30% and 35%. And we think that's the trajectory that we're currently on, but we have purposely not set a target because I've learned in the past when you set a target, then you can oftentimes hit the target, but you do it at the expense of running a good business and we're just really focused on serving the customer right now. Simeon Gutman: Okay, fair enough. Can I ask you a macro question to whoever. And I wanted to ask the school of thought that this industry, this home improvement industry, is a mid-single-digit grower, right, that did 4x or 5x that over the last four quarters. And so that school of thought says, hey, this industry needs to digest this growth, we may not grow, going forward maybe in '22, or maybe flattish at best. And the other side is that, people have spent more on their homes, there's more invested capital, so there's more maintenance repair and that we could sort of comp it. And then maybe there's a housing cycle on top of this. Curious where you shake out what's your best guess or what some of the debates you're having on this topic are. Marvin Ellison: Yes, Simeon, it's a good question, I'll take the first part, I'll let Dave provide any financial perspective. But I mean, we are very excited and we're very bullish on the home improvement industry in general. If you look at the macro factors that really impact this business and have historically impacted this business as things like low mortgage rates, rising home prices, the age of housing stock, improved household formation trends and also strong consumer balance sheets, I mean, all of those specific macro factors are pointing in the right direction for us. In addition to that, when there's home price appreciation, that actually benefits home improvement. It may not benefit the overall housing market. But when consumers decide to stay in their existing home and make investments in upgrading the home, that correlates to really strong home improvement sales. And as the housing stock continues to age, we're in a repair maintenance business, that's a significant part of what we do. So when we look at home improvement, we see really robust year-over-year growth potential relative to the macro. And then if we look at just the things that we control, I mean, we've been very transparent that there have been many strategic mistakes made in this business over the past 5 plus years. And so we have what we believe is enormous upside in revenue and operating income by continuing to invest in really smart strategic initiatives that we think will drive the business forward. And we think Q1 reflects our ability to do that with our gross margin and operating income performance. I'll let Dave, add any additional comments if you have them. David Denton: Simeon, the only other thing that I would add is that obviously over the next several years, we anticipated that the millennial customer would begin to migrate into the home ownership position. I think what has happened through COVID is that that macro trend is probably accelerated. So probably given the industry segment a bit more tailwinds as we think about the next several years. Simeon Gutman: Okay. Thank you. Good luck. Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Liz Suzuki with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question. Elizabeth Suzuki: Great. Thank you. So, if sales are running above the robust market scenario, do you think the sales upside could be reinvested into additional initiatives aimed at gaining market share and deepening the competitive moat? Or should we think about there potentially being upside to the 12% operating margin that was discussed in that robust demand scenario? David Denton: Hey, Liz, this is Dave. I'll start with that. That question there, I think what you're looking at here is we have a very specific investment thesis really as we launched in 2020 and into '21. And I think, if you look at the thesis that we have and all the priorities that we have, I think we feel like we're very well-positioned, making the right investments to grow our business long-term, improve our operating performance. I do think we're also very focused on the fact that we can't really predict the macro in the back half of this year, but we are very committed to doing two things. One is we're going to grow market share this year; and two, we're going to improve our operating margin performance. And we do expect that to be if the market holds up with a robust or above robust, around 12% operating margin. And that's our focus for this year. Elizabeth Suzuki: Right. And just one quick follow-up, which is which of the two categories comps below 15%? And what was the 2-year growth there? Bill Boltz: Yes, Liz, this is Bill. So, all categories achieved plus 20% on a 2-year basis, but the two categories below the company were paint and our hardware business driven largely because of everybody painting last year during the pandemic, and then the hardware business driven by safety and masks and some of that business that spiked last year in the quarter. Elizabeth Suzuki: Okay, great. Thank you. Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Baker with D.A. Davidson. Please proceed with your question. Michael Baker: Okay, thanks. A couple and hate to be short-term focused here. But the -- first of all, April did fall off versus May -- versus March on a 2-year basis a little bit. Do you think that's because of the stimulus that occurred in March? And then playing out forward if we take that 2-year trend into May and for the rest of the quarter, you should be about flat in the second quarter. Is that a fair way to think about the expectations for the quarter? David Denton: Yes, I'll -- first, as you look at I guess, our performance by month through the quarter, if you look at it on a 2-year stack basis, yes, March was somewhat inflated if you think about tech recovery from the storm in Texas and other states as well as stimulus hitting that period. So I think we feel very good about kind of how we've ended the quarter and the trends as we cycle into May from a sales perspective. And I think, listen, we're not giving guidance for the quarter. We've continued to be focused specifically on making sure that we have great service. We have -- we're in stocks in the right categories, and we're supporting our consumers across our marketplace. And I feel like we're gaining momentum as we think about our business both in 2020 and here as we cycle into '21. Marvin Ellison: Michael, this is Marvin. The only point I'll add to that is we were up against a 20.4% comp in the month of April in the U.S., and we comped almost 14% on top of that. So we feel really good about that. That exceeded our expectations, we've exceeded our internal plan. And it also demonstrates to us that even going up against some of the spiked demand from last year, we still can perform at a high level. So we actually felt great about our performance in April, but it demonstrates when you're up against significant surge in demand, you're going to see sales comp pressure, and that's to be expected. Michael Baker: Yes, sure. Okay. That makes sense. And the follow-up and not ask a tough question, particularly, on a 25% comp against a 12% last year really, really incredible and strong. But you talk about market share gains, a simple look at the growth of the market using the NAICS sales building material, garden equipment and supply stores that did grow a little bit faster than you did this quarter. So I wonder how you think about what market are you looking at or what numbers you're looking at to underpin your market share gain comments for the quarter and the year. Marvin Ellison: Michael, coming from someone who has worked in a couple of different retail formats, I've always said that home improvement has probably the most suspect market share data on a short-term basis of any retail segment. So to be quite candid, when we look at the amount of growth we delivered in the sales revenue to regenerate it and we look at it on a 1-year or 2-year comp basis, we can't cobble quibble about losing market share. We're really focused on a broader market. And we've said consistently that in this COVID environment, and this is going to be current and post-COVID, the retailers that are most capitalized and can make investments in omni-channel and omni-channel fulfillment and creating different channels for customers to shop and can lean into technology can also leverage the supply base as our merchants and supply chain were able to do over the past quarter will win and will take broader market share. And we believe that we did that and so we feel very, very comfortable with our market share position and performance in with our prospects in our rest of the year. Michael Baker: Yes, fair enough. Appreciate the time. Thank you. Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Horvers with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed with your question. Christopher Horvers: Thanks. Good morning, everybody. So a couple questions. My first question is on the product margin benefits that you're seeing on the pricing side, should these accelerate over the year given that some of this the learning builds some sort to say in the systems? And to what extent is it more sensitive to sort of highly seasonal and markdown prone quarters like a 2Q and a 4Q versus the third quarter? David Denton: Yes, listen, I think -- this is Dave. We've made a lot of investments from a product cost management and pricing perspective infrastructure here at Lowe's. And we feel very confident between the merchant and finance team on kind of managing that. It is not necessarily seasonally related. This is really about managing our everyday price and costs in a more effective manner over time. I do think that we're still in the early stages of this journey as we think about the next several years to improve our performance here. Clearly, at the moment, we’re -- as we said in our prepared remarks, there are some inflation pressures in our business that we're managing through. I do believe that we have -- we're continuing to invest in these tools and technologies to enable us to improve our margin performance over the long -- longer term. Now, keep in mind, Chris, I just want to go back to what we said of our long-term financial algorithm here is really to maintain kind of flattish gross margins over time with the fact that we would improve the product margin, but we reinvest some of that product margin in the supply chain to drive performance and growth over the long-term. Christopher Horvers: Got it. Understood. Marvin Ellison: . Christopher Horvers: And then in terms of -- as a follow-up, on the 12% margin question. If you do end up, beating that minus 2% sales outlook, I guess why wouldn't you be above a 12%? Is there an offset, perhaps, bonus and employee incentives? Is it a headwind from lumber inflation that creates a rate headwind that more than offsets into the natural leverage of beating the robust scenario sales guide? David Denton: Yes. Hey, Chris, I just want to get ourselves focused. Listen, first and foremost, we've said about the fact that we're going to gain some market share, we got to improve operating margin performance here and we're trying to get to our 12% in the short-term here. Beyond 12%, we have objectives and we believe we can expand it further, but let's at least get to our 12% margin first. And so we're just kind of laser-focused on making sure that we're delivering upon our commitments from that perspective. Marvin Ellison: And Chris this is Marvin. You can appreciate the challenge we have looking at the overall macro outlook for the business with all the dynamics occurring in the marketplace. The good news is, is the better the macro perform, the better it will perform. We feel great about the things that we control and some of the tools and some of the processes we put in place and some of the decisions of the leadership team are really paying dividends. And as David said a couple of times already today, we were committed to outperforming the broader market, and improving operating margin and at the macro improves significantly above the robust scenario, then our business will perform equally as well. And that's how we're approaching it. Christopher Horvers: Understood. Best of luck, guys. Marvin Ellison: Thanks. Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett. Please proceed with your question. Chuck Grom: Hey, good morning. Great quarter. You guys spoke about the big increase in lumber pricing. Depot said the same thing yesterday. Curious what you're seeing on the demand side and unit velocity over the past few months? Marvin Ellison: Hey, I will I start it off. What I can tell you is we're just really pleased that the merchants were able to create such strong supplier relationships, that we could keep up with demand in an unprecedented environment of unit demand. So I'll let Bill talk about units and how we're performing it and kind of how we feel about the rest of the year. Bill Boltz: Yes, Chuck, I think to echo Marvin, I think demand continues to remain strong. All the preparation that was done coming off of last year, has certainly enabled us to fulfill that demand going forward. All the work that's being done right now is to maintain that as we go through the rest of the year and continue to manage the needs of the Pro customer. Make sure that we can take care of them first. I mean, that's really what we're focused on in that job lot quantity and making sure that we're right by market. And that's been the focus of the team. Chuck Grom: That's great to hear. And this call would be just on the installation business, you talked about a 6% comp in the quarter. I guess I'm curious, like, what penetration of the business is that today? How big can you grow that? And then also, just from a profitability perspective, how it compares to the rest of the business? David Denton: Yes, Chuck, that business is in the mid single digits penetration for our business. And we do think we have a big runway here. As Joe indicated in his prepared remarks, is that business was something that really wasn't invested in historically and was something that we had really, I'd say, poor service model historically and was not the best from an operating performance perspective financially. I think we've now turned that business around to have a really nice foundation as we think about growing it. So I ask Joe to give a couple of comments on it. Joe McFarland: Yes. Thanks, Dave. I'll just make a few comments. You heard in my prepared remarks the performance very, very pleased that we've attracted industry veterans that really understand the complexities of being inside the home and especially in a COVID environment, all the new platforms that we have been focused on the consolidation of installers across the country, and remaining laser-focused on the programs that we really want to drive, and that's all under the same umbrella as our total home strategy. So we're very pleased with the team's efforts. I’m very pleased with all of our installer partners across the country and looking forward to a great continued momentum here. Chuck Grom: Great. Thank you. Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line a Scott Mushkin with R5 Capital. Please proceed with your question. Scott Mushkin: Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. So I had long-term strategic question when you guys think about your business into 2022. As you look at your strategic priorities, what do you think drives incremental growth per Lowe's kind of company specific, what are your top three type of things as you look out over the next 18 months? Thanks. Marvin Ellison: Scott, this is Marvin. I think it goes directly to our total home market acceleration strategy where we talk about continuing to invest in online which is really more omni-channel focus, making sure that we're investing in our installation services business and also improving our overall performance with the Pro. As I mentioned, in my prepared comments, I mean all of our customer segments are really important. And we are focused more intently on being a customer focused business. The Pro adds a different dimension because of the frequency of how to Pro shop, and also how to Pro shops throughout the entire store. And one of the strategic mistakes made in the past here is not understanding that customer and understand the economic value of that customer. So we're going to continue to stay really focused on that customer, but I will say those three things omni-channel, ensuring that we can continue to have a really robust and seamless installation service business and focusing on the Pro R3 of our priorities. But the whole total home strategy in comps is what we're going to be leaning into for the next couple of years. Scott Mushkin: That's great. And then just like looking out the back half of this year, are you guys seeing any signs that this is very high level of inflation is crimping demand at all? Or is that not something you're seeing? Marvin Ellison: We're not seeing it. I'll give you thoughts, I will let Dave, give a more financial perspective. I mean, we feel really good about this business -- this business model. As I look at home improvement as an overall retail sector, I just think that even though we're all just totally fatigued, both mentally physically with the pandemic, and there's nothing that we can say positive about operating through all the health and safety issues that we've all dealt with both business and personal. When you look at the macro for home improvement, it's a very positive backdrop. And as we look at forward looking quarters and into next year, even with the inflation we're seeing in certain areas, specifically lumber and copper, we just don't believe that that's going to create an impediment for growth, or significant headwinds for this business sector. David Denton: Yes. The only thing I would add is just reconfirm what Marvin said, we see no slowdown in demand at this point in time across our business in our categories. And I think if you speak to our Pro customers, we're hearing from them that they want or very busy at the moment in to have extremely long backlogs at this point in time. So I think this demand will continue for some period of time. Scott Mushkin: Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer & Co.. Please proceed with your question. Brian Nagel: Hi, good morning. Congrats on a nice quarter. The first question I wanted to ask, you've talked a lot about the various scenarios for 2021 and the operating margin and market your opportunities for Lowe's. How do you look at expense levers? I think you may have talked about this a bit in your prepared comments. But how do we think about the expense levers to the extent that sales proved choppier through the balance of 2021? David Denton: Yes, obviously, this is Dave. Obviously, the biggest expense level we have is how we manage operating salaries across our business and probably labor a little bit in the supply chain. I think what we've done is we've invested in tools and processes to really allow us to effectively manage that labor component, and really adjust it based on demand that we're seeing from a profile perspective. With that, I'll turn it over to Joe. Joe McFarland: Brian, thanks for the question. And I really point out three major points of the PPI initiative that we talk about. First is the investment in technology to reduce the tasking hours and we've been doing that very effectively. Secondly is the improvement in customer service, with those changes, and then finally, the overall sales productivity and sales per square foot productivity of the stores, I think is we've given some examples, the digital signs and appliances, digital signs in lumber, the investments we are making in the Pro area, the investments we've made on the front end. And so I think the overall investment thesis that we have in driving this PPI really speaks to choppy times or good times that we have to leverage the business. Brian Nagel: Got it. That’s very helpful. And my follow-up question with regard to sales, clearly, through Q1 then given the commentary with regard to May, I mean, sales have stayed very strong and rather broad based. But as you look at your business, kind of a market by market basis, are you seeing any difference in sales trends in regions of the country, markets of the country that have opened up faster, presumably consumers are getting back to what their normal lives quicker? Bill Boltz: Brian this is win. When we talk about broad base, it's more consistently broad base. And anytime I can remember in my career. I mean, we have 15 geographic regions and three divisions. And as I said in my prepared comments, I mean, all of our region's we're in north of 18%, all divisions north of 20%. And when we look at top 40 markets or look at our top metropolitan areas, it is just surprisingly strong and consistent with very few outliers in the negative. And so that points to us, that there are just good, underlying financial metrics and balance sheet, positive aspects for customers that is showing up and how they spin in our business, it also demonstrates that we're running a more consistent business. But the short answer is, we're not seeing any negative outliers. When we look at customer mobility within even when we were seeing COVID spikes around the country and vaccination rates, we still didn't see any major differences in overall revenue performance in those pockets of the country. So we feel good about that. And it points to what we believe will be very positive signs for the rest of the year, and that's what we're hoping and praying for. Brian Nagel: Right. Appreciate all the color. Thank you. Kate Pearlman: We're going to take one more question, please. Operator: Thank you. Our final question this morning comes from the line of Steven Forbes with Guggenheim Securities. Please proceed with your question. Steven Forbes: Good morning, and thanks for taking the question. I wanted to focus on the Pro. You mentioned 30% sales growth in the Pro. We're curious if you could sort of remind us or speak to the contributions from existing versus new customer growth. And if there's any sort of quarterly variation in the Pro sales penetration rate that we should be cognizant of, as we work our way through 2021. Marvin Ellison: Steve, the results from Pro equally balanced between new and existing customers. As Joe mentioned in his prepared comments, the key for us will be just continuing to get a larger percent of a wallet of our existing customers. If we didn't attract one new customer and we were able to get a greater percent of spend from existing customer that would solve our Pro penetration for the next 2 plus years. So that tells you that our greatest opportunity is just getting our existing customers to buy more, but at the same time, with the loyalty program that Joe and his team launched, we're seeing incredible growth in new customers and we're seeing also customers be very attracted to our new credit program. And that's a great sign for us to see the acquisition of new customers. Joe, I don’t know if there is any other point you would make. Joe McFarland: Yes, thanks, Marvin. The only thing I would ad, we started our journey in the Pro over 2 years ago, we talked a lot about the basics, the price service, the right brands. And now we're focused on that strategic phase of the Pro growth. So things like building out our Pro loyalty database, the new CRM, the redesigned store layout, the tailored shopping experience. So we believe that we have attracted a lot of new customers, we're growing the wallet of our existing customers. And again, I'm very pleased with the Pro team, their focus and everything that team has accomplished in the last 2 years. Steven Forbes: Thank you. And then just a quick follow-up, right, regarding Pro wallet share based on the CRM data that you have. Any sort of color or current data that you can share as it relates to the wallet share right or trip share of the small and medium sized Pro customer that you're focused on? Marvin Ellison: Steve, we're not going to publicly share a lot of that detail. Obviously, we're tracking it. But for competitive reasons, we typically don't share it externally. What I can tell you is that we've been pleased with the launch of loyalty in CRM, both programs are exceeding expectations. We had some delays, or I say pauses in the rollout due to COVID. We're now leaning into it. We are excited about the amount of data that we're collecting. And we're more excited about the feedback from our customers on how they feel about the visibility of what they're buying, how they're buying it, and just the overall connectivity. So we look forward at some point in the future to sharing more details. But for now, I mean, we're not going to share a lot externally other than to say we feel great about the progress we're making in the trajectory of the business specifically with that customer. Steven Forbes: Thank you. Marvin Ellison: Thanks. Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
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Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) Earnings Insight

  • Lowe's is expected to report an EPS of $4.24 and revenue of $23.94 billion, indicating potential market turnaround signs.
  • The home improvement sector faces challenges from a sluggish housing market, tariffs, and high interest rates, affecting consumer spending.
  • Lowe's financial metrics reveal a P/E ratio of 20.50, a price-to-sales ratio of 1.69, and an earnings yield of 4.88%, highlighting its market valuation and investment return potential.

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) is a prominent player in the home improvement retail sector, competing closely with Home Depot. Both companies are set to release their quarterly earnings this week, with Lowe's expected to report an earnings per share (EPS) of $4.24 and revenue of approximately $23.94 billion. These figures are closely watched by investors for signs of a market turnaround.

The home and garden market has faced challenges due to a sluggish housing market, tariffs, and high interest rates. These factors have led to consumer caution regarding significant purchases. As highlighted by PYMNTS, investors are keenly observing the earnings reports from Lowe's and Home Depot for indications of whether these headwinds are beginning to subside.

Both Lowe's and Home Depot have underperformed relative to the S&P 500 in 2025, as consumers have reduced spending on big-ticket items and expensive materials for home improvement. This trend follows a surge during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite these challenges, analysts have not made significant changes to their EPS and sales estimates for Lowe's.

Lowe's financial metrics provide insight into its market valuation. The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 20.50, a price-to-sales ratio of about 1.69, and an enterprise value to sales ratio of around 2.12. These figures reflect the market's valuation of Lowe's earnings, revenue, and total worth compared to its sales.

Lowe's has an earnings yield of about 4.88%, indicating the return on investment. The company also has a negative debt-to-equity ratio of approximately -2.94, suggesting a higher level of debt compared to its equity. Additionally, Lowe's current ratio is about 1.01, indicating its ability to cover short-term obligations. Investors are eager to see if the upcoming earnings report will signal a turnaround for Lowe's in the challenging market environment.

Stifel Cuts Lowe’s Price Target to $240, Maintains Hold on Cautious Outlook

Stifel lowered its price target on Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW) to $240 from $250 while maintaining a Hold rating, following the company’s fiscal Q1 2025 earnings. Although results modestly outperformed expectations, the firm remains cautious about the outlook for the remainder of the year and beyond.

The firm kept its 2025 EPS forecast at the low end of Lowe’s reiterated guidance, citing uncertainty around the sustainability of top-line momentum. While Q1 saw an improvement in comparable sales as the quarter progressed, Stifel believes the implied pace of Q2 growth does not yet instill confidence in the company’s ability to meet full-year revenue targets—let alone the acceleration needed to support 2026 and 2027 estimates.

Stifel also pointed to mounting pressure from Home Depot’s stronger execution and comments about preserving pricing power under the new tariff environment. This has heightened scrutiny on Lowe’s ability to protect margins, particularly as Home Depot continues to outperform operationally.

The firm expects Lowe’s stock to trade sideways in the near term, with its valuation reflecting a modest discount to retail peers amid lingering questions around the timing and strength of a potential sales inflection.

Lowe’s Matches Q1 Sales, Reaffirms Outlook Despite Housing Headwinds

Lowe’s Companies (NYSE:LOW) reported first-quarter results that aligned with expectations, as resilient professional demand and e-commerce strength helped offset weather-related sales softness. Net sales totaled $20.93 billion for the quarter ended May 2, in line with Bloomberg consensus and slightly down from $21.36 billion a year earlier.

Comparable sales declined 1.7%, largely attributed to unfavorable weather, though this was partially balanced by strength in services targeting construction professionals and solid online performance.

Gross profit fell 1.5% year-over-year to $6.99 billion, slightly ahead of analyst forecasts of $6.96 billion.

Despite acknowledging near-term uncertainty and ongoing housing market pressure, the company reiterated its full-year guidance for both sales and earnings, signaling confidence in its operating strategy and demand stabilization efforts.

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW) Quarterly Earnings Preview

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE: LOW) is a major player in the home improvement retail sector, competing closely with Home Depot. As Lowe's prepares to release its quarterly earnings on May 21, 2025, analysts are keenly observing its financial performance.

The expected earnings per share (EPS) is $2.89, with projected revenue of approximately $21 billion. Despite the challenging market conditions, analysts remain optimistic about Lowe's potential. The Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests a revenue of $20.95 billion, indicating a slight 2% decrease from the previous year. The EPS estimate of $2.89 reflects a 5.6% decline from the same quarter last year.

However, Lowe's has a history of exceeding expectations, with an average earnings surprise of 3.9% over the last four quarters. Lowe's financial metrics provide further insights into its market position. The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.94, which helps investors understand how much they are paying for each dollar of earnings. Its price-to-sales ratio of 1.57 indicates how the market values its sales.

Additionally, the enterprise value to sales ratio is 2.02, and the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is 17.57, offering a comprehensive view of its valuation. The company's financial health is also reflected in its earnings yield of 5.28%, which shows the return on investment for shareholders. However,

Lowe's debt-to-equity ratio is notably negative at -2.79, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing. Despite this, the current ratio of 1.09 indicates that Lowe's can cover its short-term liabilities with its short-term assets, maintaining liquidity. As Lowe's prepares to release its earnings, the focus will be on its performance in the Do-It-Yourself (DIY) segment, a key area for the company. Analysts have issued "buy" ratings for Lowe's, with 10 out of 15 analysts expressing confidence in its potential. The mean price target suggests a potential upside of approximately 15%, with a target price of $270.

Lowe’s Surprises with Q4 Sales Growth, Stock Rises 3%

Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW) delivered an unexpected rise in fourth-quarter comparable sales, as its dual focus on retail and professional customers helped it gain market share in the competitive home improvement sector. As a result, the company’s shares rose more than 3% intra-day today.

The company's strategy, aimed at competing more aggressively with larger rival Home Depot, is gaining traction, according to CEO Marvin Ellison. Quarterly comparable sales edged up 0.2%, defying expectations of a 1.82% decline.

Lowe’s also exceeded top and bottom-line estimates, posting net sales of $18.55 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.99, both topping analyst projections.

Looking ahead to fiscal year 2025, the company expects total sales between $83.5 billion and $84.5 billion, slightly below the $84.63 billion analyst forecast. Comparable sales are projected to be flat to up 1%, falling short of the 1.4% growth analysts anticipated.

Meanwhile, Lowe’s set its annual diluted earnings per share guidance at $12.15 to $12.40, trailing Wall Street’s $12.50 consensus estimate.

Lowe’s Surprises with Q4 Sales Growth, Stock Rises 3%

Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW) delivered an unexpected rise in fourth-quarter comparable sales, as its dual focus on retail and professional customers helped it gain market share in the competitive home improvement sector. As a result, the company’s shares rose more than 3% intra-day today.

The company's strategy, aimed at competing more aggressively with larger rival Home Depot, is gaining traction, according to CEO Marvin Ellison. Quarterly comparable sales edged up 0.2%, defying expectations of a 1.82% decline.

Lowe’s also exceeded top and bottom-line estimates, posting net sales of $18.55 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.99, both topping analyst projections.

Looking ahead to fiscal year 2025, the company expects total sales between $83.5 billion and $84.5 billion, slightly below the $84.63 billion analyst forecast. Comparable sales are projected to be flat to up 1%, falling short of the 1.4% growth analysts anticipated.

Meanwhile, Lowe’s set its annual diluted earnings per share guidance at $12.15 to $12.40, trailing Wall Street’s $12.50 consensus estimate.

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) Surpasses Earnings Expectations

  • Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) reported EPS of $2.89, beating estimates and showcasing its competitive edge in the home improvement sector.
  • The company's announcement of an anticipated decline in full-year sales led to a 4.7% drop in stock price, reflecting market sensitivity to future sales projections.
  • In the options market, increased activity and a focus on the weekly 11/22 270-strike call indicate a bearish sentiment among traders.

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) is a prominent player in the home improvement retail sector, competing with industry giants like Home Depot. On November 19, 2024, Lowe's reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.89, surpassing the estimated $2.81. The company also reported revenue of $20.17 billion, exceeding the estimated $19.94 billion, showcasing its ability to outperform market expectations.

Despite the positive earnings report, Lowe's announced an anticipated decline in full-year sales compared to the previous year. This announcement led to a 4.7% drop in its stock price, which was trading at $259.02. The market's reaction highlights the sensitivity of stock prices to future sales projections, even when current earnings exceed expectations.

In the options market, there was a notable increase in activity, with intraday volume running at four times the usual level. Traders focused on the weekly 11/22 270-strike call, with new positions being sold to open. This indicates a bearish sentiment among traders, possibly due to the anticipated decline in full-year sales.

Lowe's has consistently exceeded consensus EPS estimates over the past four quarters. In the previous quarter, it reported earnings of $4.10 per share, surpassing the anticipated $3.96. This consistent performance demonstrates Lowe's ability to manage its operations effectively, even amid challenges in big-ticket discretionary purchases.

Lowe's financial metrics provide insight into its market valuation. With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 21.76 and a price-to-sales ratio of about 1.78, the market values Lowe's earnings and revenue favorably. The company's current ratio of approximately 1.13 suggests it can cover short-term liabilities with short-term assets, indicating financial stability.