Intuit Shares Gain 7% on Q1 Beat

Oppenheimer analysts provided their views on Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) following the company’s 2022 Investor Day, where it highlighted the refreshed "five Big Bets" introduced three years ago. These are: (1) Revolutionize speed to benefit (using AI to serve customers), (2) Connect people to experts (turbotaxlive/QuickBooksLive), (3) Unlock smart money decisions (Credit Karma), (4) Be the center of small business growth (Mailchimp/Money Portfolio/Workforce Solutions), and (5) Disrupt the small business mid-market (QBO Advanced).

The company outlined its Consumer (TurboTax)/Small Business/Credit Karma segment growth strategies pursuing penetration of its now $312 billion TAM (vs. $290 billion last year). Penetrating Assisted consumer tax preparation via rapidly growing turbotaxlive, the company highlighted its long-targeted, recent entry into the sizable/ fragmented business tax market.

Increased from 10-15% in August, the company stressed 15-20% long-term revenue growth for the Small Business segment. Innovation has Credit Karma positioned for incremental growth, albeit likely below its long-term 20-25% CAGR expectation in 2023 on perceived macroeconomic headwinds.

The analysts maintained their Outperform rating and a $516 price target.

Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) shares closed more than 3% higher following the company’s reported Q4 results, with EPS coming in at $1.10, better than the Street estimate of $0.99. Revenue fell 6% year-over-year to $2.4 billion, beating the Street estimate of $2.34 billion.

Small Business segment Q4 revenue growth of 41% year-over-year contributed to the full 2022-year segment revenue growth of 38%. Q4 Credit Karma revenue grew 17% year-over-year. The company’s 2022 Consumer (TurboTax) segment revenue grew 10% (entirely via revenue-per-return growth), a fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth.

The company anticipates Q1/23 EPS to be in the range of $1.14-$1.20, compared to the Street estimate of $1.86, and revenue growth in the range of 23-25%, including Mailchimp.

Full 2023-year EPS is expected to be in the range of $13.59-$13.89, compared to the Street estimate of $13.81, and revenue in the range of $14.485-14.7 billion, compared to the Street estimate of $14.47 billion.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank provided their outlook on Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) ahead of the upcoming Q4 results, scheduled to be reported on Aug 23.

The analysts expect another solid quarterly result, modeling revenue/non-GAAP EPS of $2.34 billion/$0.97, compared to the Street estimate of $2.34 billion/$0.98.

However, the analysts believe investor focus is squarely centered on guidance for 2023. Against a moderating SMB backdrop, the analysts are taking a more cautious stance into the next fiscal year and reducing their estimates ahead of initial guidance that they think could embed additional conservatism to reflect elevated levels of macro uncertainty and challenging year-over-year compares.

Specifically, the analysts reduced their 2023 organic Small Business revenue forecasts to 11% year-over-year growth, compared to the typical historical 12%-14% guidance range set by management. The analysts lowered their Credit Karma forecast to 18% growth, compared to the estimate of 20% prior.

Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) shares closed more than 8% higher on Wednesday following the company’s reported Q3 results, with revenue growing 35% year-over-year to $5.6 billion, better than the consensus estimate of $5.51 billion. EPS was $7.65, compared to the consensus estimate of $7.58.

Small Business segment revenue grew 42% year over year and Credit Karma revenue grew 48% year over year.

Given the strong Small Business/Credit Karma performance, the company increased its full 2022 adjusted EPS growth guidance from 18-20% to 20-21% year-over-year to $11.68-11.74.

For the Q4, the company anticipates non-GAAP diluted EPS to range from $0.94 to $1.00 and revenue to be down around 8-9%.

Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) shares closed 10.08% higher on Friday following the company’s reported Q1 results, with total revenue/adjusted operating income/EPS growing 52%/66%/63% year-over-year, respectively, all exceeding the Street estimates.

The relatively resilient Consumer (primarily TurboTax)/ProConnect segments were consistent with expectations in seasonally-light F1Q, while the Small Business segment was the primary Q1 upside driver with Credit Karma also contributing. Emerging from a relatively moderate pandemic-driven lull, Small Business segment Q1 revenue grew 22% year-over-year.

On the Q1 outperformance/recent acquisition of Mailchimp, Intuit increased its 2022 total revenue growth guidance to 26-28% year-over-year, better than the consensus estimate.