Humana Shares Drop 11% on Disappointing Guidance

• Barclays has updated its rating on Humana Inc. to Equal-Weight from Overweight and increased the price target to $370 from $326.
• Humana faces legal challenges regarding allegations of misleading investors about the impact of increased medical costs on its adjusted earnings per share.
• Despite these challenges, Humana's stock price has shown resilience, trading at $349.55 with a market capitalization of approximately $42.12 billion.

On Thursday, June 20, 2024, Barclays made a significant move by adjusting its rating on Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM), a leading health insurance provider, to Equal-Weight from its previous stance. This change suggests that Barclays now views Humana's stock as a hold option for investors, indicating a neutral outlook on the company's future stock performance. The adjustment was notable not only for the change in rating but also for the increase in the price target to $370, up from $326, as reported by TheFly. This revised price target reflects an optimistic view of Humana's potential for growth, despite the challenges it faces.

The timing of Barclays' updated stance on Humana comes amidst legal challenges for the company. The Gross Law Firm has issued a notice to Humana shareholders, particularly those who purchased shares between July 27, 2022, and January 24, 2024. This notice is in relation to a lawsuit alleging that Humana made false and/or misleading statements and failed to disclose important information regarding the impact of increased medical costs on its adjusted earnings per share. These increased costs were attributed to a pent-up demand for healthcare procedures, leading to higher utilization rates and costs than the company had previously assured its investors.

The lawsuit claims that Humana downplayed these significant financial pressures, which could have misled investors about the company's financial health and future prospects. This situation underscores the importance of transparency and accurate reporting in maintaining investor trust and confidence. As Humana faces these allegations, the potential impact on its stock performance and investor relations is a critical concern, especially considering the recent downgrade by Barclays.

Despite these challenges, Humana's stock price has shown resilience, trading at $349.55, which represents a decrease of 1.60% from its previous close. The stock has experienced fluctuations, trading between a low of $349.19 and a high of $358.17 during the session. Over the past year, Humana's shares have seen a wide range of trading prices, from as high as $530.54 to as low as $298.61. With a market capitalization of approximately $42.12 billion and a trading volume of 664,596 shares, Humana remains a significant player in the health insurance market.

The legal challenges and the revised outlook from Barclays highlight the complex environment in which Humana operates. Investors and shareholders are closely watching how these developments will impact Humana's financial performance and stock valuation in the coming months. The increased price target from Barclays suggests some optimism about Humana's ability to navigate its current challenges, while the lawsuit underscores the importance of addressing the concerns raised by shareholders.

On Monday, May 20, 2024, UBS adjusted its rating on NYSE:HUM, Humana, to Underperform, maintaining a hold position. At the time of the announcement, the price of Humana's stock was $356.20. This update was covered in detail by Benzinga, with insights from 14 analysts on the matter. Humana, a prominent player in the healthcare insurance sector, has been making significant strides in improving care coordination for Medicare Advantage plan enrollees. This effort is part of their broader strategy to enhance healthcare outcomes and patient satisfaction, which could influence their market performance and investor sentiment.

Humana's collaboration with Privia Medical Group-Georgia and Bamboo Health has been a key initiative in this strategy. This partnership, recognized for its innovative approach to bridging care gaps through real-time data, received a Points of Light Award at the 2024 K2 Collaborative Summit, hosted by KLAS Research. Such recognition underscores Humana's commitment to leveraging technology for better healthcare management, a factor that could play a crucial role in its valuation and the perception of its stock in the market.

John Cope, Director of Stars Technology at Humana, highlighted the importance of this collaboration in enhancing the healthcare experience for Humana members. By integrating Bamboo Health's Real-Time Care IntelligenceTM, the partnership aims to deliver personalized, high-quality care experiences. This initiative not only demonstrates Humana's dedication to its members' healthcare journeys but also its potential to lead in the adoption of innovative healthcare solutions. This could be a pivotal aspect for investors to consider, especially in light of UBS's recent rating adjustment.

Despite the recent underperform rating by UBS, Humana's innovative efforts in care coordination and its recognition in the healthcare community could present a different picture to investors. The company's stock, currently trading at $355.75, has shown resilience with a year's trading range between $298.61 and $530.54. With a market capitalization of approximately $42.87 billion and a trading volume of 164,771 shares, Humana remains a significant entity in the healthcare insurance industry. Its commitment to improving patient care through technology and partnerships may well influence its market performance in the long term, offering a nuanced perspective to investors beyond the immediate impact of analyst ratings.

Humana (NYSE:HUM) saw its shares drop by around 5% intra-day today despite the announcement of its fiscal Q1/24 results, which surpassed analyst expectations in both earnings and revenue. The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $7.23 for the quarter, significantly above the consensus estimates of $6.12. Revenue also exceeded expectations, totaling $29.33 billion compared to the forecast of $28.52 billion.

While Humana adjusted its GAAP EPS forecast for the full year to $13.93, down from the previous estimate of $14.87, it maintained its adjusted EPS guidance at $16.00. Additionally, the company raised its 2024 outlook for individual Medicare Advantage membership growth. Humana now anticipates an annual increase of about 150,000 members, or 2.8%, which is an adjustment upward by 50,000 members from its previous projection.

Humana (NYSE:HUM) revised its profit forecast downward today, following adjustments in its projections for individual Medicare Advantage (MA) growth for the year ending December 31, 2024.

The revised expectations now point to an addition of approximately 100,000 new members, translating to a 1.8% growth from its membership tally as of December 31, 2023, which stands at around 5.4 million. This updated projection falls short of the company's previous goal of achieving growth "at or slightly above the industry average," as initially stated.

In response to this announcement, Humana's shares experienced a sharp decline, dropping over 11% intra-day today.

The company attributes this moderated growth outlook for 2024 to its strategic approach of balanced pricing, which has led to capturing a smaller portion of the overall industry growth. Although the total sales volume during the Annual Enrollment Period (AEP) aligned with Humana's expectations, a significant portion of this volume stemmed from existing members changing plans. This resulted in fewer new member sales than anticipated, as detailed in Humana's recent filing.

Humana (NYSE:HUM) posted impressive third-quarter results, outperforming Wall Street analysts’ predictions. The company announced an adjusted EPS of $7.78, beating the projected $7.16.

Additionally, the quarter's revenue stood at $26.42 billion, beating the anticipated $25.57 billion. Bruce D. Broussard, Humana’s President and CEO, remarked on the robust earnings growth and highlighted a 19% rise in their individual Medicare Advantage membership.

However, for the full year 2023, the company expects an EPS of about $28.25, slightly lower than the expected $28.30.

Analysts at RBC Capital raised their price target on Humana Inc. (NYSE:HUM) to $544 from $541 following the company’s Virtual Investor Day meeting on Thursday.

Management updated its outlook, raising its 2022 adjusted EPS guidance to $25.00 from $24.75, reflecting 21% year-over-year growth. Management cites continued favorable Medicare and Medicaid cost trends as seen through the first half of the year, as well as a lack of incremental headwinds from COVID baked into prior guidance.

The company expects adjusted EPS to reach $37.00 in 2025, representing a 14% CAGR, which is near the upper end of the company’s prior 11-15% long-term EPS growth target.