Humana Inc. (NYSE:HUM) Faces Fourth-Quarter Loss but Beats EPS Estimates

Truist Securities lowered its price target on Humana (NYSE:HUM) to $280 from $305 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing valuation adjustments despite encouraging updates shared at the company’s recent Investor Day.

The event highlighted strong momentum across Humana’s core businesses, particularly in the Medicare Advantage (MA) segment, where management sees continued growth potential. The company also pointed to progress in its Medicaid operations, with maturing books expected to support margin expansion, and emphasized scalable growth opportunities at Centerwell, its health services platform.

Management outlined a strategic roadmap through 2028, underscoring plans to enhance operating leverage and boost performance in segments such as Individual MA, Group, Prescription Drug Plans, and Specialty. Capital deployment remains a priority, further reinforcing the company's long-term strategy.

However, Truist adjusted its valuation assumptions, lowering the price target to reflect a reduced multiple.

Humana (NYSE:HUM) saw its stock decline over 6% intra-day today after reporting weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results and issuing a 2025 earnings outlook that fell short of analyst projections. Despite strong revenue growth, the health insurer faced mounting costs and operational investments that weighed on profitability.

For Q4 2024, Humana posted an adjusted net loss per share of $2.16, slightly missing expectations of a $2.13 loss. However, revenue came in stronger than anticipated at $29.21 billion, surpassing the $28.72 billion consensus estimate and marking an 8.3% year-over-year increase.

The company’s Insurance segment adjusted benefit ratio stood at 91.9%, aligning with expectations. This figure included a 20-basis point increase tied to additional investments in Star Ratings, a key performance metric for Medicare plans.

Looking ahead, Humana provided a cautious full-year 2025 outlook, projecting adjusted EPS of approximately $16.25, below analysts' expectations of $16.91. The company attributed this guidance to incremental investments aimed at enhancing operational efficiency.

On a GAAP basis, Humana reported a Q4 net loss per share of $5.76, compared to a $4.42 loss in the same quarter last year. For the full year 2024, GAAP earnings per share were $9.98, while adjusted EPS totaled $16.21.

• Humana Inc. (NYSE:HUM) reported a fourth-quarter loss of $693 million but surpassed EPS estimates with -$2.16 compared to the expected loss of $2.26.
• The company's revenue reached approximately $29.21 billion, exceeding forecasts, yet anticipates a lower-than-expected annual profit for 2025 due to high costs.
• Despite strategic exits from unprofitable Medicare Advantage markets, Humana's shares fell by 5% in premarket trading, reflecting investor concerns over future profitability.

Humana Inc. (NYSE:HUM), a leading health insurer known for its Medicare Advantage plans, faces stiff competition from giants like UnitedHealth Group and Aetna. These plans, backed by the U.S. government, cater to individuals aged 65 and older or those with disabilities, with Humana receiving a fixed rate for managing these services.

On February 11, 2025, Humana unveiled its earnings, revealing an EPS of -$2.16, which was an improvement over the anticipated -$2.26. Despite this, the company reported a significant fourth-quarter loss of $693 million. This loss was a factor in the company's full-year profit of $1.2 billion for 2024, as it strategically exits unprofitable Medicare Advantage markets to bolster future performance.

The company's revenue for the period stood at approximately $29.21 billion, surpassing the expected $28.84 billion. However, Humana forecasts its annual profit for 2025 to fall short of Wall Street estimates due to elevated costs associated with its government-backed plans. This forecast led to a 5% drop in Humana's shares to $253.20 during premarket trading.

Looking ahead, Humana anticipates an adjusted profit per share of about $16.25 for 2025, which is below the analysts' expectations of $16.71 per share, as reported by LSEG. The company's financial results were impacted by factors such as amortization of intangibles and the exit from the employer group commercial medical products business, contributing to a consolidated pretax loss of $862 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The enterprise value to sales ratio stands at around 0.35, with an earnings yield of approximately 4.23%. The debt-to-equity ratio is about 0.74, indicating moderate debt levels, while the current ratio is approximately 1.76, showcasing the company's ability to cover short-term liabilities with short-term assets.

Humana (NYSE:HUM) saw its stock decline over 6% intra-day today after reporting weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results and issuing a 2025 earnings outlook that fell short of analyst projections. Despite strong revenue growth, the health insurer faced mounting costs and operational investments that weighed on profitability.

For Q4 2024, Humana posted an adjusted net loss per share of $2.16, slightly missing expectations of a $2.13 loss. However, revenue came in stronger than anticipated at $29.21 billion, surpassing the $28.72 billion consensus estimate and marking an 8.3% year-over-year increase.

The company’s Insurance segment adjusted benefit ratio stood at 91.9%, aligning with expectations. This figure included a 20-basis point increase tied to additional investments in Star Ratings, a key performance metric for Medicare plans.

Looking ahead, Humana provided a cautious full-year 2025 outlook, projecting adjusted EPS of approximately $16.25, below analysts' expectations of $16.91. The company attributed this guidance to incremental investments aimed at enhancing operational efficiency.

On a GAAP basis, Humana reported a Q4 net loss per share of $5.76, compared to a $4.42 loss in the same quarter last year. For the full year 2024, GAAP earnings per share were $9.98, while adjusted EPS totaled $16.21.

• Barclays has updated its rating on Humana Inc. to Equal-Weight from Overweight and increased the price target to $370 from $326.
• Humana faces legal challenges regarding allegations of misleading investors about the impact of increased medical costs on its adjusted earnings per share.
• Despite these challenges, Humana's stock price has shown resilience, trading at $349.55 with a market capitalization of approximately $42.12 billion.

On Thursday, June 20, 2024, Barclays made a significant move by adjusting its rating on Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM), a leading health insurance provider, to Equal-Weight from its previous stance. This change suggests that Barclays now views Humana's stock as a hold option for investors, indicating a neutral outlook on the company's future stock performance. The adjustment was notable not only for the change in rating but also for the increase in the price target to $370, up from $326, as reported by TheFly. This revised price target reflects an optimistic view of Humana's potential for growth, despite the challenges it faces.

The timing of Barclays' updated stance on Humana comes amidst legal challenges for the company. The Gross Law Firm has issued a notice to Humana shareholders, particularly those who purchased shares between July 27, 2022, and January 24, 2024. This notice is in relation to a lawsuit alleging that Humana made false and/or misleading statements and failed to disclose important information regarding the impact of increased medical costs on its adjusted earnings per share. These increased costs were attributed to a pent-up demand for healthcare procedures, leading to higher utilization rates and costs than the company had previously assured its investors.

The lawsuit claims that Humana downplayed these significant financial pressures, which could have misled investors about the company's financial health and future prospects. This situation underscores the importance of transparency and accurate reporting in maintaining investor trust and confidence. As Humana faces these allegations, the potential impact on its stock performance and investor relations is a critical concern, especially considering the recent downgrade by Barclays.

Despite these challenges, Humana's stock price has shown resilience, trading at $349.55, which represents a decrease of 1.60% from its previous close. The stock has experienced fluctuations, trading between a low of $349.19 and a high of $358.17 during the session. Over the past year, Humana's shares have seen a wide range of trading prices, from as high as $530.54 to as low as $298.61. With a market capitalization of approximately $42.12 billion and a trading volume of 664,596 shares, Humana remains a significant player in the health insurance market.

The legal challenges and the revised outlook from Barclays highlight the complex environment in which Humana operates. Investors and shareholders are closely watching how these developments will impact Humana's financial performance and stock valuation in the coming months. The increased price target from Barclays suggests some optimism about Humana's ability to navigate its current challenges, while the lawsuit underscores the importance of addressing the concerns raised by shareholders.

On Monday, May 20, 2024, UBS adjusted its rating on NYSE:HUM, Humana, to Underperform, maintaining a hold position. At the time of the announcement, the price of Humana's stock was $356.20. This update was covered in detail by Benzinga, with insights from 14 analysts on the matter. Humana, a prominent player in the healthcare insurance sector, has been making significant strides in improving care coordination for Medicare Advantage plan enrollees. This effort is part of their broader strategy to enhance healthcare outcomes and patient satisfaction, which could influence their market performance and investor sentiment.

Humana's collaboration with Privia Medical Group-Georgia and Bamboo Health has been a key initiative in this strategy. This partnership, recognized for its innovative approach to bridging care gaps through real-time data, received a Points of Light Award at the 2024 K2 Collaborative Summit, hosted by KLAS Research. Such recognition underscores Humana's commitment to leveraging technology for better healthcare management, a factor that could play a crucial role in its valuation and the perception of its stock in the market.

John Cope, Director of Stars Technology at Humana, highlighted the importance of this collaboration in enhancing the healthcare experience for Humana members. By integrating Bamboo Health's Real-Time Care IntelligenceTM, the partnership aims to deliver personalized, high-quality care experiences. This initiative not only demonstrates Humana's dedication to its members' healthcare journeys but also its potential to lead in the adoption of innovative healthcare solutions. This could be a pivotal aspect for investors to consider, especially in light of UBS's recent rating adjustment.

Despite the recent underperform rating by UBS, Humana's innovative efforts in care coordination and its recognition in the healthcare community could present a different picture to investors. The company's stock, currently trading at $355.75, has shown resilience with a year's trading range between $298.61 and $530.54. With a market capitalization of approximately $42.87 billion and a trading volume of 164,771 shares, Humana remains a significant entity in the healthcare insurance industry. Its commitment to improving patient care through technology and partnerships may well influence its market performance in the long term, offering a nuanced perspective to investors beyond the immediate impact of analyst ratings.