Enphase Energy Stock Drops 10% on Disappointing Revenue Outlook

Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) shares fell over 3% intra-day today after TD Cowen downgraded the company from Buy to Hold, slashing the price target to $45 from $58, citing structural headwinds tied to weakening U.S. residential solar demand.

The analysts warn that the elimination of the federal solar tax credit (25D) at the end of 2025 will further pressure demand for customer-owned residential solar systems—a segment Enphase is heavily exposed to. This comes on top of an already difficult backdrop of elevated interest rates, which have curbed solar installations.

As Enphase positions itself as a premium-priced product, the firm believes it is more vulnerable to these demand disruptions. The new $45 price target is based on 14x TD Cowen’s revised 2026 EBITDA estimate, reflecting a more cautious outlook on both growth and profitability.

Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) shares plunged more than 13% intra-day today after the company fell short of Wall Street expectations for the first quarter and issued a softer-than-expected revenue forecast for the current quarter.

The solar tech firm reported adjusted earnings of $0.68 per share for Q1 2025, narrowly missing the $0.70 analyst estimate. Revenue totaled $356.1 million, just shy of projections but still reflecting a 35% year-over-year increase from $263.3 million in the same period last year.

Looking ahead, the company expects second-quarter revenue between $340 million and $380 million. Even at the high end, the forecast barely matches market expectations, while the midpoint—$360 million—comes in well below consensus. This includes around $40 million in safe harbor revenue.

Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) shares plunged more than 13% intra-day today after the company fell short of Wall Street expectations for the first quarter and issued a softer-than-expected revenue forecast for the current quarter.

The solar tech firm reported adjusted earnings of $0.68 per share for Q1 2025, narrowly missing the $0.70 analyst estimate. Revenue totaled $356.1 million, just shy of projections but still reflecting a 35% year-over-year increase from $263.3 million in the same period last year.

Looking ahead, the company expects second-quarter revenue between $340 million and $380 million. Even at the high end, the forecast barely matches market expectations, while the midpoint—$360 million—comes in well below consensus. This includes around $40 million in safe harbor revenue.

Jefferies analysts reduced their price target for Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) from $61 to $57, maintaining an Underperform rating on the stock. The decision reflects a cautious outlook for the company amid ongoing market challenges and competitive pressures.

While the U.S. residential market is showing signs of improvement, it is recovering from a low base, and competition from Tesla remains a significant headwind. Meanwhile, the analysts mentioned that recovery in the European market has yet to materialize, adding to the company’s near-term hurdles. Although upcoming product launches provide some optimism, the overall market environment and Enphase’s position within it remain difficult.

The analysts also highlighted expectations for downward revisions to 2025 estimates, driven by these market dynamics. As a result, Jefferies adjusted its revenue forecast for 2025, now over 8% below consensus estimates. This revision underpins the reduced price target and reinforces the view that Enphase faces significant near-term challenges despite its longer-term potential.

Jefferies analysts reduced their price target for Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) from $61 to $57, maintaining an Underperform rating on the stock. The decision reflects a cautious outlook for the company amid ongoing market challenges and competitive pressures.

While the U.S. residential market is showing signs of improvement, it is recovering from a low base, and competition from Tesla remains a significant headwind. Meanwhile, the analysts mentioned that recovery in the European market has yet to materialize, adding to the company’s near-term hurdles. Although upcoming product launches provide some optimism, the overall market environment and Enphase’s position within it remain difficult.

The analysts also highlighted expectations for downward revisions to 2025 estimates, driven by these market dynamics. As a result, Jefferies adjusted its revenue forecast for 2025, now over 8% below consensus estimates. This revision underpins the reduced price target and reinforces the view that Enphase faces significant near-term challenges despite its longer-term potential.

Susquehanna analysts downgraded Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) from a Positive to a Neutral rating, setting a reduced price target of $104, down from $147. This adjustment reflects broader trends and challenges impacting the alternative energy sector, with project delays and tepid demand in residential solar weighing on near-term growth prospects.

Ahead of the third-quarter 2024 reports, scheduled on October 22, the analysts noted that project delays have continued to pose significant obstacles for utility-scale energy initiatives, with many projects likely to be pushed further into 2025 as timelines extend. Election-related uncertainties have also dampened project approvals, particularly for smaller developers, affecting market confidence.

In the residential sector, solar demand recovery remained slow, although signs pointed to a potential upturn in demand heading into 2025. Current estimates suggest residential installations may decline by over 20% year-over-year in 2024 but could recover by about 9% in 2025. This anticipated rebound is expected to be supported by lower interest rates, rising utility prices, and expanded access to third-party ownership (TPO) financing options.

One bright spot for Enphase’s residential market was storage, with Tesla’s Powerwall 3 capturing market share as a competitive force in energy storage. Given the sluggish demand recovery and intensifying competition in the storage space, particularly from Powerwall 3, Susquehanna’s outlook on Enphase’s performance has moderated, resulting in the downgrade.

Susquehanna analysts downgraded Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) from a Positive to a Neutral rating, setting a reduced price target of $104, down from $147. This adjustment reflects broader trends and challenges impacting the alternative energy sector, with project delays and tepid demand in residential solar weighing on near-term growth prospects.

Ahead of the third-quarter 2024 reports, scheduled on October 22, the analysts noted that project delays have continued to pose significant obstacles for utility-scale energy initiatives, with many projects likely to be pushed further into 2025 as timelines extend. Election-related uncertainties have also dampened project approvals, particularly for smaller developers, affecting market confidence.

In the residential sector, solar demand recovery remained slow, although signs pointed to a potential upturn in demand heading into 2025. Current estimates suggest residential installations may decline by over 20% year-over-year in 2024 but could recover by about 9% in 2025. This anticipated rebound is expected to be supported by lower interest rates, rising utility prices, and expanded access to third-party ownership (TPO) financing options.

One bright spot for Enphase’s residential market was storage, with Tesla’s Powerwall 3 capturing market share as a competitive force in energy storage. Given the sluggish demand recovery and intensifying competition in the storage space, particularly from Powerwall 3, Susquehanna’s outlook on Enphase’s performance has moderated, resulting in the downgrade.