Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) Quarterly Earnings Preview and Strategic Expansion into Europe

Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter revenue, driven by surging growth in its AI cloud business, which helped counterbalance softness in its core advertising operations amid a sluggish Chinese economy.

Revenue from Baidu’s core segments rose 7% year-over-year to 25.5 billion yuan ($3.53 billion), topping analyst estimates of 23.17 billion yuan. A standout was the AI Cloud division, where sales jumped 42%, highlighting growing enterprise demand for Baidu’s full-stack AI solutions and competitive pricing.

The cloud unit's accelerating momentum comes as AI increasingly becomes a central pillar of Baidu’s strategy. The company has continued to invest in its Ernie AI platform—China’s answer to ChatGPT—despite rising competition, including lower-cost offerings from challengers like DeepSeek.

Baidu also noted upgrades to its Qianfan mobility services platform, enhancing its capabilities for training and fine-tuning reasoning models, and released a new version of its PaddlePaddle deep learning framework in April.

While marketing revenues remained under pressure, the strong performance in AI cloud underscores Baidu’s ongoing pivot toward high-growth, innovation-led areas of the business.

Macquarie trimmed its price target on Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) from $85 to $83, maintaining a Neutral rating, as the Chinese tech giant grapples with a slow-moving macro environment and stiff competition in the search market.

While Baidu has been increasing the share of AI-generated content in its search platform, analysts remain cautious about the timeline for meaningful AI monetization. The firm's core advertising business is expected to shrink further, with first-quarter revenue projected to decline 6% year-over-year to RMB 15.9 billion—slightly below market consensus.

Despite ad pressure, Baidu's AI Cloud segment is showing promise. Enterprise adoption continues to climb, with AI Cloud revenue anticipated to rise 25% year-over-year to RMB 5.9 billion, helping to cushion the impact of weaker ad sales.

Meanwhile, Baidu’s autonomous driving initiative is shifting its sights overseas. The company’s Robotaxi service, which has already surpassed 10 million rides and 150 million kilometers in China, is targeting global expansion. A partnership in Dubai sets the stage for deploying 100 Robotaxis by the end of 2025, and scaling up to over 1,000 by 2028. Baidu is also eyeing high-value markets like Europe and Japan to boost revenue per ride, while working to lower operational costs through vehicle hardware and personnel reductions.

However, given its early stage and limited revenue contribution, Robotaxi development is not yet included in Macquarie's valuation model for Baidu.

Macquarie trimmed its price target on Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) from $85 to $83, maintaining a Neutral rating, as the Chinese tech giant grapples with a slow-moving macro environment and stiff competition in the search market.

While Baidu has been increasing the share of AI-generated content in its search platform, analysts remain cautious about the timeline for meaningful AI monetization. The firm's core advertising business is expected to shrink further, with first-quarter revenue projected to decline 6% year-over-year to RMB 15.9 billion—slightly below market consensus.

Despite ad pressure, Baidu's AI Cloud segment is showing promise. Enterprise adoption continues to climb, with AI Cloud revenue anticipated to rise 25% year-over-year to RMB 5.9 billion, helping to cushion the impact of weaker ad sales.

Meanwhile, Baidu’s autonomous driving initiative is shifting its sights overseas. The company’s Robotaxi service, which has already surpassed 10 million rides and 150 million kilometers in China, is targeting global expansion. A partnership in Dubai sets the stage for deploying 100 Robotaxis by the end of 2025, and scaling up to over 1,000 by 2028. Baidu is also eyeing high-value markets like Europe and Japan to boost revenue per ride, while working to lower operational costs through vehicle hardware and personnel reductions.

However, given its early stage and limited revenue contribution, Robotaxi development is not yet included in Macquarie's valuation model for Baidu.

Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) delivered better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, yet shares dropped more than 6% intra-day today, as investors weighed the company’s ongoing shift toward AI and mixed operational metrics.

For Q4, the Chinese internet and AI powerhouse reported earnings per share of RMB19.18, surpassing analyst expectations of RMB16.42. Revenue reached RMB34.12 billion, beating the projected RMB33.64 billion.

Baidu’s core business generated RMB27.7 billion, exceeding forecasts of RMB26.75 billion. However, its iQIYI streaming unit underperformed, posting RMB6.6 billion in revenue, missing the RMB6.84 billion estimate.

While Baidu continues its transformation from an internet-driven company to an AI-first enterprise, some key financial figures were mixed. Adjusted operating profit came in at RMB5.05 billion, slightly above expectations of RMB4.89 billion, but adjusted EBITDA of RMB6.95 billion fell short of the RMB7.47 billion forecast.

User growth also lagged expectations, with monthly active users reaching 679 million, below the anticipated 690.82 million. Despite the AI Cloud segment gaining traction, Baidu’s stock reacted negatively to weaker-than-expected performance in key segments and uncertainty over near-term AI monetization.

Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) delivered better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, yet shares dropped more than 6% intra-day today, as investors weighed the company’s ongoing shift toward AI and mixed operational metrics.

For Q4, the Chinese internet and AI powerhouse reported earnings per share of RMB19.18, surpassing analyst expectations of RMB16.42. Revenue reached RMB34.12 billion, beating the projected RMB33.64 billion.

Baidu’s core business generated RMB27.7 billion, exceeding forecasts of RMB26.75 billion. However, its iQIYI streaming unit underperformed, posting RMB6.6 billion in revenue, missing the RMB6.84 billion estimate.

While Baidu continues its transformation from an internet-driven company to an AI-first enterprise, some key financial figures were mixed. Adjusted operating profit came in at RMB5.05 billion, slightly above expectations of RMB4.89 billion, but adjusted EBITDA of RMB6.95 billion fell short of the RMB7.47 billion forecast.

User growth also lagged expectations, with monthly active users reaching 679 million, below the anticipated 690.82 million. Despite the AI Cloud segment gaining traction, Baidu’s stock reacted negatively to weaker-than-expected performance in key segments and uncertainty over near-term AI monetization.

JPMorgan analysts downgraded Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) from Overweight to Neutral, reducing their price target to $87 from $130. The revision reflected concerns over diminishing earnings visibility driven by uncertainties in macroeconomic recovery and the impact of generative AI content deployment on monetization.

The analysts lowered Baidu’s 2025 adjusted EPS estimate by 21%, positioning it 17% below the Street consensus. The adjustment included a 7% cut in Baidu’s core advertising revenue and a 6-percentage-point reduction in core operating margin. While Baidu’s core advertising revenue growth was projected to bottom out in the first quarter of 2025 with subsequent acceleration, the pace of recovery remained uncertain, posing downside risks to consensus expectations.

Despite these challenges, the analysts highlighted Baidu’s substantial cash reserves. Net cash holdings, including deposits and wealth management products with maturities exceeding one year, accounted for 84% of the company’s market capitalization. This implied a low valuation of approximately 2x ex-cash 2025 earnings.