Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) on Q1 2021 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Axalta's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the presentation by management. Today's call is being recorded, and a replay will be available through May 4. Those listening after today's call should be please note that the information provided in the recording will not be updated, and therefore, may no longer be current. Chris Mecray: Thank you, and good morning. This is Chris Mecray, VP of Investor Relations and Treasury. We appreciate your continued interest in Axalta, and welcome you to our first quarter 2021 financial results conference call. Joining me today are Robert Bryant, CEO; and Sean Lannon, CFO. Last evening, we released our quarterly financial results and posted a slide presentation along with commentary to the Investor Relations section of our website at axalta.com, which we will be referencing during this call. Both our prepared remarks and discussion today may contain forward-looking statements reflecting the Company's current view of future events and the potential effects on Axalta's operating and financial performance. These statements involve uncertainties and risks, and actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Please note that the Company is under no obligation to provide updates to these forward-looking statements. This presentation also contains various non-GAAP financial measures. In the appendix, we've included reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. For additional information regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures, please refer to our filings with the SEC. I'll now turn the call over to Robert. Robert Bryant: Good morning and thank you for joining us to review Axalta's first quarter earnings and our full year financial outlook for 2021. I hope each of you and your families remain safe and healthy. I'd also like to thank the Axalta team globally for their continued perseverance and dedication to the needs of our customers and our partners. Overall, the first quarter showed excellent operating and financial performance, following on the heels of strong results throughout the second half of 2020. Continued broad recovery across our end markets enabled strong year-over-year top line improvement, ahead of our first quarter guidance provided on February 17, while strong incremental margins leveraged our cost structure actions to date produced adjusted EBIT, EPS and free cash flow that set new first quarter records. Net sales for the third quarter increased 8.1% year-over-year or 4.9% excluding FX tailwinds. The consolidated business benefited from the comparison against early pandemic impacts during the first quarter of last year, but some headwinds held back additional volume growth for the current period. Refinish volumes remained below normal levels due to pandemic restrictions still in place in some key countries we serve. Sean Lannon: Thanks, Robert, and good morning. As mentioned, our first quarter witnessed continued recovery across nearly all markets we serve, and we continue to execute cleanly to exceed our targets set for the quarter. Net sales, up 8.1% year-over-year, were slightly better than expected versus our 3% to 5% guidance from February, as recovery in Refinish as well as the broader Industrial markets continued at a solid rate. Performance Coatings first quarter net sales increased 9.2% versus the prior year quarter, with Refinish increasing 8.5% and Industrial increasing 10.1%. The Refinish result included support from a stronger China performance year-over-year, but still lack a full volume profile given ongoing lower miles driven in most regions and lower associated accident rates. Operator: Our first questions come from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird. Please proceed with your question. Ghansham Panjabi: Hope everybody is doing well. I guess following up on the last few comments, Sean, in terms of Auto Refinish down high single digits versus I think the 2019 baseline is what you said. How is that expected to evolve by region? What sort of outlook are you baking in, in terms of how the Mobility dynamic globally starts to improve as we cycle through the next few quarters? I know it's a very complex environment, but just curious as to what you have embedded for the rest of 2021. Robert Bryant: Ghansham, this is Robert. I'll take that one. I'd say that in the first quarter, we saw sequential improvement month-to-month. And for April, we're expecting to see similar levels as we saw in March, driving a large increase, obviously, for the second quarter year-over-year. North America is expected to be higher than March. And for EMEA, we expect it to be slightly lower, given some of the recent COVID lockdown activities. And then for emerging markets, Asia and LatAm, it's a mixed bag there, but we expect them to be flat to slightly down. We expect to be significantly up for the full year versus the prior year, obviously, as we lap the COVID impact. And although we have some lingering COVID restrictions throughout the world, particularly in EMEA, we expect demand to be up given pent-up travel demand as well as vaccination rollouts. So sales volumes for the year are expected to be down roughly mid- to high-single-digits from pre-COVID 2019 levels, but we expect them to be up significantly compared to 2020. Ghansham Panjabi: Got it. Perfect. And then in terms of the cost inflation, obviously, everybody is upgrading raw material cost inflation guidance. I think you said high single digits versus last year. How should we think about price costs as we progress through the rest of the year? And maybe from a higher level perspective, you can compare this current pricing cycle that you've been implementing across -- along with your peers relative to the most previous price -- cost inflation cycles '17 and '18? Robert Bryant: We expect to fully cover raw material inflation during the course of the year, primarily via price pass-throughs. And if we think about that by business, in Refinish, we typically schedule price increases and have been able to pass on raw material increases fairly efficiently. I think our value proposition is not based on material costs, but rather the technology we offer and the associated efficiency gains at the Bodyshop level. For Industrial, end businesses should be able to increase price, but really, full realization is determined by individual markets and competitive factors. Only a small portion of the total end market there is based on index pricing. So we're fairly confident of our ability to price through on the Industrial side. In Mobility, roughly 25% of our business is covered by indexing, with the remainder under contractual language that allows us to discuss pricing. So we've generally been able to successfully over time pass through sustained inflation, albeit with some lag to the realized increases. And the price increases outside of the index will also be achieved with new colors and on leveraging our services. Sean Lannon: And Ghansham, maybe just to cover the uniqueness about second quarter and why you're seeing a little bit of a drop from a margin perspective with the raw material inflation really starting to hit us. Industrial, we're doing a nice job in getting realization there. We're putting incremental actions in from a Refinish perspective. But similar past cycles, Mobility side of the business will be a little bit lagging. But as Robert pointed out, we expect to be fully caught out by the end of the year in the aggregate. And certainly, to the extent we have any sort of leakage, we'll be looking at productivity improvements to make sure our margins hold. Operator: Our next questions come from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question. Steve Byrne: The guide on EBIT clearly shows a shift into the second half. And presumably, that's a recovery in volumes from the chip shortage and the recovery of raws and so forth. But I was curious, Robert, if you're seeing any signs yet of some traction from some of the management changes you made and/or the structural change ripping out that matrix structure. Anything that you're seeing that could be driving growth that you're now expecting to realize in the second half? Or is this really just simply a shift? Robert Bryant: Well, I think you hit the nail on the head when you mentioned the management team. We have added some very high-quality global P&L executives to our business leadership team. And they are already having a dramatic impact on the aggressiveness with which we're planning to grow the business, creative ideas and new approaches. We've also added some very confident functional leadership as well. The overall matrix structure and ripping that out and having that now be global business units supported by strong functions has really allowed us to streamline the organization and our cost structure. So I'd say that if you had to kind of sum it up into how much of it would you say is due to the management impact versus how much of it is due to simply market drivers, I think a heavy element here is the management team. And I think we are now at a point where we have a world-class management team that is really making a difference, both on the commercial side of the business as well as on the cost side of the business. Steve Byrne: And just to follow-up on a couple of those innovation awards comments that you made, Robert. The one coat on a kitchen cabinet versus four seems pretty compelling from the manufacturing perspective, but could be a significant volume hit. Is that more than offset by the potential for you to gain market share in that industry and/or realize a much higher price to offset lower volume? And is the same true on the Refinish technology? How much of an impact does your latest technology have on a Bodyshop's ability to push vehicles through that paint booth that is meaningful in terms of share gains, but maybe lower volume for you? Robert Bryant: Well, I think the way to think about this is, we are not selling gallons of coatings. We are selling solutions. And so we price the value that we create for our customers accordingly. So again, the way to think about it is we're pricing for a solution and the value that we create for a customer, not necessarily based on volume. Therefore, again, as we've highlighted, it's important for these businesses in coatings to really look at net sales. Volume per se can be somewhat of a tricky metric when judging how successful you're being from a commercial perspective. On the element of the Edison Awards that we won as well as other awards that we've won for our technology, about 2.5 years ago, we really refocused some of our R&D efforts. And we changed some of the emphasis that we had, from incremental improvements, to really spending a little bit more money on some aspects, applications, products and even new business models, frankly, that could really be game-changers. And so I think you'll continue to see some pretty exciting developments across all of our businesses, from a product, from a service, from an application as well as from a business model perspective that I think is going to keep us at the forefront of the coatings industry. Operator: Our next questions come from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question. Jeff Zekauskas: What was the change in price in Refinish, exclusive of mix in the quarter? And is it -- how would you compare it to normal historical patterns? Sean Lannon: So Jeff, we didn't actually quantify it. The only thing we signaled is that we actually got price in the quarter. It was modest, but it's similar to prior period. Certainly, we have a mix component that's somewhat camouflaging the pricing progress in the Refinish side of performance. Jeff Zekauskas: In your operational issue, did you -- how much did you accrue in current liabilities for the payout of funds? Sean Lannon: Yes. So there's roughly $94 million that was accrued in the quarter. And that does not contemplate any sort of insurance recoveries, which we're still working on. Jeff Zekauskas: Is that in current liabilities? Sean Lannon: It is. Operator: Our next questions come from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi. Please proceed with your question. P. J. Juvekar: Yes. So you made an acquisition in China. I mean, I would imagine the China coatings market is highly fragmented. What are the opportunities there? And is this like a beachhead that you're establishing to make further more acquisitions? Robert Bryant: P.J., we already have a fairly good-sized business in China in our Energy Solutions business. The acquisition of Anji Changan added somewhat less than $40 million in annualized sales, for which we paid less than $50 million in total purchase price. So it was an attractive transaction for us. Anji provides Axalta with really a solid platform to further grow the Energy Solutions business in China as well as in other Asia Pacific markets. And it also allows Axalta to substantially increase our capacity, which is something that we really needed to do because the demand there for electric vehicles and other electric applications is really growing. It also adds products for large-volume applications, which will complement our portfolio of specialties. And they also brought to the table a whole suite of other customer approvals. So we believe that this acquisition provides a powerful commercial as well as cost synergies with significant further growth opportunity. And in general, e-mobility and electronic coatings is a key area of focus for us, not only in China but around the world. P. J. Juvekar: Great. And then your potential of up to $160 million. Just talk a little bit about that. You took $94 million in this quarter, so would that remaining would be in the second quarter? And can you just tell us what happened here? And kind of what steps have you taken to that it doesn't happen again? Sean Lannon: So P.J., there's obviously commercial sensitivity. So we can't go too far in giving too much as far as details, but you'll recall as part of year-end in our Form 10-K we disclosed a reasonable possible amount of up to $250 million. So what you saw in the quarter is we've been working collaboratively with our customers at our customer sites and working through the issue, understanding root cause, getting through testing. So what you saw in the first quarter is -- we made a good amount of, but a number of sites actually came off the table. There weren't any issues, and that's where you see the overall range decreasing from the $250 million to $160 million. The $94 million, that's where we have line of sight into the actual root call, so that's why we accrued in the first quarter. It's hard to say exactly when we'll reach conclusion on the residual. And if there's actually an issue there, that could result in a probable liability. And that's why we've actually disclosed in the 10-Q, the possible amount of the incremental $65 million, but I can't tell you exactly when we would accrue that or if we would accrue it. And the other thing I did point out earlier, this is before any sort of insurance recoveries, which we're working with our insurance providers right now. Robert Bryant: And adding to what Sean said, the root cause has been identified, has been remediated, and additional controls have been put in place so that it does not happen again. Operator: Our next questions come from the line of Laurent Favre with Exane. Please proceed with your question. Laurent Favre: Robert, I've got a question on capital allocation. And I guess thank you very much for the disclosure on the acquisition and the size of the acquisition. So it looks like you have spent more on buybacks than on M&A, I guess, so far. In the future, how do you intend to arbitrage between, I guess, buybacks with the upsized buyback envelope versus acquisitions? And can you talk about the M&A pipeline from here? Thank you. Robert Bryant: Yes. Well, let me start, I guess, with the M&A pipeline. We've concluded our first substantive acquisition over the past two years. And we have a really full pipeline of bolt-on transactions. That being said, we would not have brought on someone of Jeremy Rowan's caliber unless we were planning on doing much larger acquisitions and other types of ventures. So I think you can expect to see us be more active, but again, valuation discipline as we always have been and I would think of share buybacks and M&A as two areas where we will deploy capital. If we continue to see our stock be undervalued, we will continue to buy back our stock at greater rates. But we will now systematically buy back our stock to offset dilution, plus an additional few percentage points on top of that at a minimum. And if we have other opportunities due to market aberrations to buy our stock at depressed levels, we will continue to do so. So I think that's really where you would expect to see the majority of our excess capital and cash flow be deployed. Laurent Favre: And as a follow-up. You mentioned that there have been no restocking in Refinish in Q1. I was wondering if you could talk about your assessment on inventory levels in Industrial. In particular, given that your volume started to recover very quickly in Q3, seemingly ahead of IP. So there, do you think that inventories have actually normalized already? Or could that happen later this year? Robert Bryant: No. I think pretty much across. All of the Industrial markets that we serve, inventory levels are really lean. Part of that is the way people have been running. But I think it's much -- has much more to do with some of the supply chain issues that are out in the marketplace. That segment of the market, much more so than light vehicle or Refinish or Commercial Vehicle or Decorative Coatings, frankly, Industrial is really the area where raw material shortages have really had the biggest impact. So I think a lot of the Industrial customers are running in a pretty lean fashion just due to the availability of materials more than anything else. So as those customers restock, there's more availability of raw materials. I think we could see somewhat of an inventory build there at some point during the year when supply normalizes. Operator: Our next questions come from the line of John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question. John McNulty: Yes. Just on the Refinish potential for restocking, can you help us to understand what that actually might mean in terms of volumes for you? I mean is that a -- is it a 1% or 2% add? Is it bigger than that? I guess how should we think about, as the Refinish business restocks, what that could mean to the overall volumes? Robert Bryant: It's difficult to put a number on it. What I would say is that I would think of it as a rubber band, John. I mean when we start to see people get back to work, kids go back to school or -- I'm talking globally, not just U.S. here. And we see traffic patterns and traffic congestions come back to normal, I think we're going to see a tremendous snapback in volume and activity in that business. And I think the interesting thing is, given the profitability of that business, of course, the operational leverage for a company like Axalta is huge. So I can't think of many companies that are more of a COVID rebound play than Axalta. John McNulty: Got it. No. Fair enough. And then I guess maybe another related question on the refinish It seems like in part because of all the semiconductor issues and what have you for auto OEM, that the used car market seems to be heating up pretty meaningfully. We're seeing kind of really big sticker inflation, that type of thing. Does that move the needle when it comes to the Refinish side of your business? Do you -- is there any correlation that we should be thinking about in terms of used car sales picking up and used car values picking up where we could see some lift on the Refinish side? Or is that a little bit too much of a stretch? How should we think about that? Robert Bryant: I would say that, that element is a fairly minor variable in the total equation that drives Refinish activity. So I wouldn't spend too much time on that particular area. Operator: Our next questions come from the line of Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question. Arun Viswanathan: Congrats on the strong performance here. I guess, first off, just on light vehicle. Can you just elaborate on your earlier comments about the ship shortage potentially elongating the cycle and then not necessarily being as much of an impact longer term on '22? Robert Bryant: Well, I think forecasters estimated approximately that about 1.4 million vehicles were impacted in the first quarter and then expected another 1 million in the second quarter, with some additional bleed through into the third quarter. The expectation is that many of those vehicles will still be made up in the second half of the year, though some of those units will probably now not be built until 2022. Axalta saw a fairly similar impact to financial results relative to the global impact and expect some lost sales to be made up in the second half. And those updated market forecasts actually came out last week. And that's why some of the data that you may hear from us on this topic versus some of our competitors may differ slightly. It's because we have, as of the time of this call, the updated forecasts. Sean Lannon: Back when we gave year-end guidance, IHS was forecasting auto builds to be up 13% to 14%. We're closer to 12% now. Still around -- a little over 83 million cars to be built in 2021. So certainly, a good amount of the 2.4 million cars Robert referenced is going to be made up in the second half, but we will see slippage in 2022. Arun Viswanathan: Okay. And then maybe I can ask a question on commercial as well. Have you seen any impacts there due to this chip shortage? Or what's your outlook for, I guess, how that business evolves over the next couple of quarters? Robert Bryant: We did see some impact in commercial vehicle, but it was -- I think we expect it to be mostly focused in the first quarter and then a little bit of -- perhaps a little bit of impact in the second quarter. For the full year, we expect strong continuation of truck strength in the Americas and EMEA, potentially with some retraction in China as C6 and government incentive cease. I think we expect strong continued performance from trailer and constructors, especially those associated with some of the last-mile delivery scenarios. Power Sports and RV also continue to show pretty good resilience and favorable order intakes. Bus is going to be a little bit more dependent on vaccination and herd immunity, but government incentives for EV powered assets could really play quite favorably later this year and beyond. Operator: Our next questions come from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question. Vincent Andrews: Maybe just an update on the cost savings. And I guess, in particular, there were obviously costs that came out last year that were COVID specific, and some of those were supposed to come back this year. So maybe just an update on where we are there. And I think, Robert, you also mentioned -- maybe Sean, you'd have some flexibility to manage sort of the price raws scenario. So maybe just help us bridge where you are versus your expectations and how much incremental flex you think you actually have that you could put to work this year. Sean Lannon: Yes. On the temporary savings that we initiated last year, yes, most of those are starting to tail off. We had roughly $20 million in savings in the first quarter. It will be a marginal benefit in the second quarter, as those costs will start to come back in as we support volumes, especially heading into the second half of the year where we're expecting a strong recovery. As it relates to Axalta Way, we have roughly $50 million baked into the guidance construct. A big part of that is -- are the initiatives that we announced last year and getting the full year run rate impact this year. Vincent, at this point, we are expecting globally, on a consolidated basis, that we will offset the raw inflation with pricing. To the extent we see a little slowness in a particular end market, that's where we may have to do a little bit more on the productivity side. But right now, we are contemplating an offset from a top line perspective. Vincent Andrews: Okay. And then, Robert, if I could just ask you, the Board obviously made a strong statement with the incremental share repurchase authorization. And my question -- this has been discussed over the life of your -- being a public company. What's the latest thinking from the Board on not paying a dividend versus buybacks and so forth? And I just asked because not paying a dividend, there is a group of the long-only investment community that is income oriented. And if there's no dividend, they just don't buy the stock. And likewise, maybe you could throw in the latest comments just on managing the debt level, because obviously, also high leverage levels are an issue for some folks, so just how the Board sort of thinking about buybacks versus the other opportunities? Robert Bryant: When it comes to capital allocation, we always look at returns and what can generate the highest returns for investors. So anytime we're going to make a decision to invest a significant amount of capital, we're looking at what are opportunities to deploy that capital internally, which tend to be pretty high ARR and very low risk type of projects. We also have, of course, the ability to buy back our stock. And depending upon where it's trading, that also has a certain return associated with it. And then we look at M&A. And depending upon what type of an acquisition it is and the risk profile of that acquisition, we also calculate a risk-adjusted return. And we compare all of those as well as the return from initiating a dividend into our thinking. So that's going into our calculus anytime we make an investment decision. At this point, we feel that fueling our innovation engine internally, which is yielding, I think, very good results. And you'll see and you'll hear about it at Investor Day some of the exciting things that we're working on. And I think you'll see over the next couple three years some really revolutionary developments. So that's obviously a very attractive area for us to invest is in continued innovation. So as we've looked across all of those investment possibilities and the benefit that we get from innovation as well as the value that we can create from making acquisitions that are consistent with our long-term strategy, not acquisitions just to add sales to the Company, but rather acquisitions that are specifically aligned with our strategy, we feel that acquisitions, investing in innovation and share buybacks are our best uses of capital at this time. Also, as we bring down our leverage level over time and we are a little bit more mature in some of those areas, it is possible that we would start a dividend. But it's -- and we've talked about this a lot at a board level, but it doesn't feel like the right time for us at this juncture. Sean Lannon: On your question on debt, we are not concerned. Investors should not be concerned. Net leverage is at $2.6 billion. When you look at our net leverage ratio, it ticked down to 3.2x. When we get to the end of the second quarter, if we don't do anything meaningful,as far as share repurchases or M&A, we'll be closer to 2.6x or 2.7x as the second quarter of 2020 drops off. And when you look at the midpoint of our range from an EBITDA perspective, we're going to have $135 million of interest expense, opposite EBITDA at the midpoint of the range of $970 million. So when you look at our interest coverage, there is plenty of room there. So we're not at all concerned on our current leverage where it sits today on our balance sheet. Operator: Our next questions come from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question. David Begleiter: Robert, can you quantify the gap between raws and selling prices in Q2? And how that will trend in Q3 and Q4? Sean Lannon: So Dave, we're not going to get into the gap. But certainly, that is adding a little pressure from a margin perspective in the second quarter, and we expect to be fully caught up as we get in the third and fourth quarter. David Begleiter: Understood. And just on the operational matter, have there been any customer repercussions from this event? Do you expect to lose any business longer term? Or is this a one-off event that have no impact on the ongoing company's operations? Sean Lannon: Yes. It's a great question. We don't believe that there's going to be any ongoing underlying impacts. We've been working very collaboratively with the customer group. We feel really confident that there won't be any loss. Operator: Our next questions come from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question. Kevin McCarthy: Aside from the external issue of shortages of semiconductor chips, did you encounter any shortages of raw materials that you buy? And if so, which ones? And what were the effects related to that? Robert Bryant: Well, there are quite a number of shortages of varying degrees and quite a number of companies that have declared force majeures. I would say, in general, we're seeing supply shortages largely in monomers, resins and isocyanates. And then there are specifics within some of the other categories of certain items. So I think it's across the raw material basket in general, but as I said, predominantly concentrated in monomers, resins and isocyanates. And I think for the most part, in the first quarter, we didn't see a meaningful impact on our businesses. But certainly, we are monitoring and managing this on a day-by-day basis. And it is a little bit kind of hand-to-mouth each day in certain products. Kevin McCarthy: Okay. That's helpful. And then I wanted to follow up a little bit on the semiconductor chip shortage issue. What we've heard from some other companies outside of the coatings industry is that there were some mitigating factors, such as a mix shift toward SUVs and trucks and in some cases, auto manufacturers making cars without the chips, with the intention of installing the chips later on. Did you see any behavior along those lines? Or is it more straightforward that your sales are simply ebbing and flowing with the auto production? Robert Bryant: Yes. We've heard the same thing from some of our customers in terms of directing the chip availability in subassembly, trying to direct more of that to trucks and SUVs, where, of course, that's our bread and butter and where result is strongest. So I think that's certainly helpful for us. I think what will be interesting is if we see auto manufacturers start to pay higher prices for chips in order to get a greater allocation of chips that are going into other product types. Operator: Our next questions come from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question. Laurence Alexander: Can you flesh out the new business models you referred to? Give a sense for what kind of departures from your business model you're taking? Or how significant this could be over, say, three, five years? Chris Mecray: Laurence, it's Chris. As much as we could spend time on that, I think with our Capital Markets Day coming up, very shortly, I'd really encourage people to tune into that where we can get into a little bit more detail around business models. It's just -- it's kind of a lot to cover on an earnings call. So if you don't mind, I think we'll defer that. Operator: Our next question is come from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question. Mike Sison: Just one question. Performance Coatings EBIT margin is pretty impressive in the first quarter. If you did get back to 2019 levels of sales for Performance Coatings, your EBIT margin in '19 was 15%. Are you run rating something more like 19, 20? Is that kind of what's implied in the first quarter? Robert Bryant: Well, I think what I would keep in mind there is that the 2019 levels, we had not yet done the global restructuring at that time. So compared to the 2019 levels, we would have the benefit of the global restructuring. And then as we talked about on previous calls, in terms of just the cost mentality and only putting costs back into the business as we see volume recover, we're continuing to run things very tightly. So I think you could expect see higher margins on the performance side. Now there's a certain amount of costs that naturally flows back into the business as you ramp up volumes. But there's another large portion of the cost that's discretionary and in particularly -- in particular related to staffing that we're really keeping a tight control over. Operator: Our next questions come from the line of Josh Spector with UBS. Please proceed with your question. Josh Spector: Wondering if you could provide some color on some of the industrial demand, and particularly products into OEM channels, so thinking maybe powder coating customers. Are you seeing any changes in buying patterns through the quarter that might give any read-through in terms of how those customers are thinking about inventories at this level or perhaps building or taking things down based on changing OEM forecasts? Robert Bryant: Well, overall, for industrial, I know you're asking specifically about our general industrial line which goes into auto. I'd say, overall, we expect sales to be up significantly in 2021 versus 2020. Even with the strong performance of Industrial in 2020, we've implemented price increases across all the Industrial submarkets and expect to exceed raw material inflation for the year. In the general industrial area, we continue to see strong demand from automotive, agriculture, construction equipment and structural steel markets. And for the portion of powder that -- powder coatings that also goes into the OE segment, we are seeing pretty strong demand there. So I think it's really more reflective of the fundamental issue -- or the fundamental dynamic that demand for vehicles is extremely high. I mean if you look at dealer inventories in the U.S., they're running in the mid-40s or lower. So the demand is there and automotive manufacturers are trying to make as many vehicles as they possibly can. But it's an imperfect science to get all of the supply chain aligned to be producing at the same level given some of the parts shortages that are out there. But at least in what we supply that goes into auto OE, we're seeing pretty good demand. Josh Spector: Really appreciate that. And maybe a quick one, if I may, on just raws, I mean the high single-digit inflation that you guys guided towards, are you willing to quantify that at all in terms of what your expectation is on the cost line and what that means for the rest of the year? Sean Lannon: Well, when you think about our raws going through COGS, it's $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion. So I mean you can do the rough math there. Operator: Our next questions come from the line of Jaideep Pandya with On Field Research. Please proceed with your question. Jaideep Pandya: First one is really on EVs. If you look at your traditional sort of automotive OEM coating business and compare it to some of your new EV customers, how should we think about market share, technology and also profitability in sort of coating and ICE car versus an EV car? That's my first question. And then just a second question really is around raw materials, but it's more about purchasing patterns. So in a time where you're seeing good demand from your end markets and raw material shortages, how much pre-buying do you guys generally engage? Or how much pre-buying would your procurement organization engage in sort of the first half for the all of 2021 really to secure raw material supply to feed sort of that demand? Robert Bryant: On your first question regarding internal combustion engines versus electric vehicles, we're very supportive of the growth in electric vehicles, because not only do we coat the exterior of the vehicle, but we also, as you know, have a very growing business in electric motor coatings. And that business is growing and expanding and is going to expand into other portions of the electronic powertrain in electric vehicles. So we're happy to see vehicle switchover. In fact, every three electric vehicle that switches over from ICE is great because we have that additional content per vehicle. And those coatings are at very attractive margins. So we're very supportive of that, and we work with some of the top electric vehicle companies in the world and are rapidly expanding our portfolio in that regard. In terms of essentially what you're asking about operational hedging of raw materials, we will prebuy or engage in other contracts to secure raw materials at attractive prices just depending on market conditions. So yes, operational hedging is something that we do engage in. Operator: Thank you. That is all the time we have for questions this morning. I would now like to turn the call back over to management for any closing remarks. Chris Mecray: Yes. It's Chris Mecray. Thank you all for joining this morning. I just want to remind everybody that we're hosting a Capital Markets Day on May 5. You can preregister for that on our website. And we really hope that you join us for that. It should be well worth your time. Thanks for joining this morning. Goodbye. Operator: Thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Have a great day.AXTA Ratings Summary
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Axalta Coating Systems Pulled 2021 Guidance
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (NYSE:AXTA) made a pre-announcement on Tuesday, lowering its Q3/21 outlook and withdrawing its full 2021-year guidance due to ongoing supply disruptions and continued raw material inflation.
Analysts at RBC Capital decreased their price target on the company’s shares to $36 from $38, mentioning that they believe the underlying demand in the company's various end markets remains strong, despite the headwinds.
Given the company’s pre-announcement, the brokerage took down its Q3/2021/2022 EBITDA estimates to $191 million/$921 million/$990 million (from $202 million/$940 million/$1,030 million) due to ongoing supply chain disruptions which are resulting in lower auto production rates.
