Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) on Q1 2021 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, please stand by. Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Abercrombie & Fitch First Quarter Fiscal Year 2021 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. . We will open the call to take your questions at the end of the presentation. We ask that you limit yourself to one question during the question and answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Pam Quintiliano. Please go ahead. Pam Quintiliano: Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our first quarter 2021 earnings call. Joining me today on the call are Fran Horowitz, Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Lipesky, Chief Financial Officer. Fran Horowitz: Good morning. It is hard to believe that over a year of earnings calls have passed since COVID first began impacting the world. During that time, we have become stronger, smarter and more nimble, and have discovered new ways of uniting our teams to foster innovative thinking and stay close to our customer. First quarter results are evidence of the progress we have made against our key transformation initiative, which enabled us to report our best operating income since 2008. We exceed our pre-COVID delivering significant improvements across key financial metrics on both a one and two-year basis. Sales rose 6% compared to Q1, 2019, despite removing 1.3 million gross square feet or roughly 20% of our base, over the last two years and experiencing temporary store closures in EMEA during our most recent quarter. In our largest market, the U.S. sales were up 18%, while our global digital revenues grew 81% from Q1, 2019 levels. Our gross margin rate was 290 basis points higher compared to Q1, 2019 and our operating margin rate rose 1100 basis points. I'm extremely proud that we have accomplished. We proactively invested in the business, keeping an eye on our long-term goals. While consumer spending benefited from some well documented tailwinds, results reflected strong product acceptance driving substantial reduction in promotions and markdowns. This is further confirmation that our target customers responding to our unique product, voice and experience across brands, all of which have been significantly refined over the last several years. Scott Lipesky: Thanks, Fran, and good morning everyone. As we lap the start of COVID, we will be providing comparisons to both last year and the Q1 2019 applicable. Due to temporary COVID driven store closures, we do not plan to disclose comparable sales this year. Now on the Q1 results. In the quarter, we delivered net sales of $781 million, up 61% to last year, as we lap the onset of the pandemic and associated widespread temporary store closures beginning mid March 2020. On a two-year basis, sales were up 6% as compared to Q1 2019. We continue to experience strong digital demand across brands with 45% digital sales growth to last year and 81% growth from Q1 2019. Global digital sales for the quarter were $403 million or 52% of total sales. By brand net sales increased 62% for Hollister, which includes Gilly Hicks, and 60% for Abercrombie which includes kids. As compared to Q1, 2019, net sales increased 3% for Hollister and 11% for Abercrombie. By region net sales in the U.S. were up 72% and 18% on a one and two-year basis respectively. As a reminder, we ended 2020 with a significantly transformed business model and had roughly 130 fewer stores and over 20% less square footage in our U.S. store base this quarter as compared to Q1, 2019. The reduction in square footage was purposeful and continued our multiyear efforts to optimize our global store square footage to align with growing digital penetration. In EMEA, sales rose 41% on one year basis and were down 9% on a two year basis. Results continue to be adversely impacted by COVID related restrictions and temporary store closures in Western Europe, with nearly 60% of our European store base closed for the majority of the quarter. As the U.K. has recently reopened, we have experienced an uptick in trend. In APAC, sales were up 42% to last year and down 30% to Q1, 2019. Throughout the quarter, we saw COVID related restrictions in Japan. In China, we continue to build out our local teams and reset the foundation to enable long term growth. We are committed to the APAC region and are following the successful playbook we put in place in the U.S. and EMEA. In the U.S. and APAC, we saw sequential store traffic improvements over Q4, while EMEA levels were consistent with Q4 as lockdown and closures continued. Globally, we realized sequential improvements in conversion and average transaction value. As of yesterday, 95% of our stores were fully opened with 36 stores closed, 22 of which are located in Germany and are only open for shopping by appointment. Moving on to gross profits, our rate of 63.4% was up 900 basis points to last year and 290 basis points to Q1 2019 driven by higher EUR across brands on reduced promotions and markdowns. As a reminder, last year's gross profit rate included approximately 300 basis points of inventory write-down charges, primarily as a result of COVID in the unexpected store closures. Inventories remain tightly controlled and our current ending the quarter down 9% to last year. I'll now cover the rest of our Q1 results and an adjusted non-GAAP basis, excluded from our non-GAAP results of $3 million and $43 million of pre tax asset impairment charges for this year and last year respectively. Operating expense excluding other operating income was up 2% as compared to last year, while operating expense as a percent of sales decreased to 55.9% from 88.6%. We've made great progress in our cost base and are seeing the benefits. Stores and distribution expense decreased 2% compared to last year and 11% on a two year basis, reflecting significant savings in store occupancy related to square footage reductions partially offset by increased shipping and fulfillment expenses on digital growth. This is the formula we have been discussing for the past couple years and we are pleased to see it play out. Marketing general and administrative expenses rose 12%. primarily driven by increased performance based compensation and digital media spend, partially offset by lower non customer facing controllable expenses and in-store marketing costs. We delivered operating income of $60 million compared to an operating loss of $166 million last year. As Fran noted, this is our best first quarter operating income and operating margin since 2008. Effective tax rate was approximately 13%. Net income per diluted share on adjusted non-GAAP basis was $0.67 compared to a net loss of $3.29 last year, which reflected adverse impacts lay the valuation allowances on deferred tax assets and other tax charges of $1.45 per diluted share. As a reminder, we exited fiscal 2020 in a strong financial position with cash and cash equivalents of $1.1 billion and total liquidity of approximately $1.3 billion. This enables us to make investments to fuel sustainable growth and to deploy excess cash strategically. On the ladder during Q1, we finalize an agreement with our SoHo New York Hollister Flagship Landlord to settle all remaining obligations related to the store, which we closed in Q2, 2019. Prior to this agreement, we had roughly $80 million of payments remaining through fiscal 2028. With the agreement we received a discount to accelerate payments, resulting in a cash outflow of approximately $64 million. The settlement serves to reduce our operating lease liabilities by approximately $65 million, resulting in a $900,000 gain and eliminated all future cash obligations related to this location. As a result of the settlement, we will avoid incurring interest expense of a total of approximately $3 million for the rest of 2021. Looking ahead, we will continue to search for ways to de-leverage the balance sheet where the economics work. During the quarter, we also resumed our share buyback program repurchasing approximately 1.1 million shares for $35 million. As of the end of Q1, we had approximately 8.9 million shares remaining under our previously authorized share repurchase program. We are committed to putting excess cash to work and we'll continue to focus on buybacks pending market conditions, share price and our ability to accelerate investments in the business. We expect fiscal 2021 CapEx to be approximately $100 million, with about half of that related to digital and technology. Taking a moment to discuss our omni-channel philosophy. As we evolve our model, the line between stores and digital continues to blur. We believe that stores are a critical part of the omni-channel brand experience and remain committed to investing in smaller omni-enabled locations that better serve have our local customers. This includes restarting our store remodel program and delivering more off mall formats in the future as we continue to meet our customers where they shop. This year we have roughly 250 leases up for renewal. We look forward to having thoughtful conversations with our landlord partners to find stores that are the right size, right location and right economics. I'll finish up with how we are approaching the remainder of the year. We will put some of the cost savings realized in 2020 back to work in customer facing areas to fuel growth opportunities. Reflecting ongoing global uncertainty, we will continue to conservatively manage inventories to position the business to chase, optimize our DC capacity for digital demand and tightly manage expenses. We're not providing an outlook for the full year. Consistent with our comments last quarter, we are planning to make progress recouping COVID driven sales losses, and the year is off to a great start. For gross profit rate we will continue to manage inventory tightly with a goal of maintaining and potentially building on 2020 progress. Keeping in mind we are likely to see cost headwinds for the remainder of the year. For OpEx, we will manage tightly and focus on using a portion of our occupancy savings to fund increased fulfillment, marketing and digital investments. For the second quarter, we are planning as follows. Net sales to be at or above 2019 level, which was approximately $841 million. We do not expect an increase in government mandated store closures from today's levels and are awaiting full clarity on one remaining countries and EMEA will fully reopen. Our plan also reflects the expectation that we will continue to successfully manage through ongoing supply chain constraints and labor shortages. Gross profit rates will be up at least 200 basis points from 60.7% last year. We remain cautiously optimistic on our ability to drive AUR improvements through lower promotion and clearance activity and to realize potential FX benefits. This should be partially offset by elevated product costs. Operating expense excluding other operating income to be up 15% to 20% to last year's adjusted non-GAAP level of $404 million, reflecting lower occupancy offset by the reversal of certain 2020 COVID related savings, higher fulfillment costs and higher marketing payroll and digital projects spend. With that operator, we are ready for questions. Operator: And we will begin with Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group. Dana Telsey: Good morning. Congratulations on such nice progress. Two things. On the product side, Social Tourists is very exciting. I've already had 2, 15-year olds like rage about it in terms of the excitement there. What are you seeing for that brand? And what are you seeing in each in Hollister and Abercrombie in men's and women's. Will be as bigger denim back to school season as well expecting it to be? And then Scott, can you just unpack expenses for congestion or labor costs? How you're planning for those expense elements? Thank you. Fran Horowitz: Good morning, Dana. So we are also incredibly excited about Social Tourists. I mean, it truly is a groundbreaking opportunity for us and for the industry, frankly, to partner with Charli and Dixie D’Amelio, two of the largest influencers out there in social media today with over 250 million followers is an incredible partnership. I think that partnership with them started back in '20 and back-to-school. And the work that we've done with them has been successful from that point forward. So we thought what better time than now coming out of COVID, coming out of 2020, a stronger, faster, smarter company to kick off a new brand. What we've seen so far, 25 million views just on their brand video, 85 million impressions. So as you know, it just launched. We will update everybody throughout the year on the excitement. But so far lots of excitement around the brand. Regarding Denim, we are in an exciting Denim trend. It started probably within about a year ago when we saw the shift both from a ride perspective as well as from a leg perspective. And the consumers responding quickly. It's funny today with TikTok, one of the leading influencers of fashion out there as soon as the kids and the young millennial saw this shift, they were excited to get out there and buy these new denim choices. So we believe across both brands, back-to-school for Hollister and we call back-to-fall for the millennial customer for Abercrombie, we see a denim opportunity. And with that I'll give it to Scott to go through the expenses. Scott Lipesky: Okay. I will unpack some expenses. So, on the first one, a poor congestion and transportation cost. Yes. There is definitely inflation here, pretty much in every mode and channel and also some delays on top of that getting product. And we have an amazing supply chain team. And they are doing everything they can to use pretty much every tool in the toolkit to enable us to get our product here at the best cost. But we do expect to see inflation there in the product costs on the transportation side. But also on the commodity side, as we've seen cotton prices pick up. It's just going to put more importance on the AUR side of the business. It's going to -- it force us to deliver amazing product, which is what we try to do every day and also keep our inventories in line so that we can deliver a great AUR to offset some of these costs. On the labor side, we are seeing some labor inflation. There's always inflation with labor as rates go up each year. We are seeing some shortages in certain markets around the country. Our store teams are managing that on a case-by-case basis, a city-by-city basis, as well as the ongoing inflation we've seen in the distribution center. So more inflation, you know, it's booked into our outlook. And it's something that we feel we can lap. And the great thing is, with all the progress we've made around store occupancy, we can absorb some of these shocks to the system in the near term. Dana Telsey: Thank you. Operator: We'll now move to our next question that will come from Paul Lejuez with Citi. Kelly Crago: Hi. This is Kelly Crago on for Paul. Thanks for taking our question. I'm just curious if you could provide any color on 2Q trends and whether you're seeing acceleration and trends versus the first quarter. And in any chance you could provide more color on how the brands did in the U.S. versus International. Obviously, performance for both brands is impressive. Just curious of Hollister's underperformance versus A&F has to do with their store closure in Europe. Were there were store closing? Scott Lipesky: Hey, Kelly, it's Scott. I'll kick this one off. So thinking about the acceleration in Q1. So great business in Q1. Have seen that momentum continue here into Q2. Won't give numbers per se on Q2, but just would say that, it's given us the confidence even though may is the smallest month of the quarter to put a target out there for Q2 that is at or above 2019 levels, which is a good thing, because it's coming into this year. We were all wondering in this company, I'm sure and others that when we get back to those 2019 levels, so good progress here. The brands in the U.S. both brands performed quite well in the U.S. in Q1. Really our performance, 18% up versus Q1 2019 was just stellar. And really all the work that we've done around the product and the marketing really came through as the customer started coming back out here in Q1. Thinking about Europe, continues to be very lumpy. In Europe, I would say, some countries have reopened. As those countries were closed, we really shifted to digital, kept that inventory moving and saw some nice results on the digital side. We have seen nice acceleration as countries reopen. There's definitely some pent-up demand out there. But still lacking clarity. Germany is a big country for us. And we still have a chunk of stores that are shop by appointment only. So it will be nice to see those stores get open and stay open. Hopefully that'll happen here in Q2, but in the meantime, we'll just read react. Kelly Crago: Got it? Thanks. And just curious with the strength and margins you are seeing this year. Kind of thinking about the long term margin opportunities, since it seems that you could exceed your sort of 6% EBIT margin target this year? Thanks. Scott Lipesky: Yes. We -- getting back to that 6% margin target out there, we remain committed to that target. We obviously took a little pause last year in our progress with COVID. But we're excited to get back on track. And the great thing about last year is though, even though we lost a big chunk on the top line, we made great progress on controlling what we can control, which is the expense side of the business and the inventory side of the business. The inventory enabled us to expand gross margins last year and again into Q1. And the expense side, really set up for a great flow through that you saw there in Q1. So we're confident that as we move forward and we can get that top line coming back to those 2019 levels and keep that gross margin where it is. AUR is up, that offsetting some of those costs that are coming at us. We have the right cost base to have a great flow through and hopefully deliver that. Not giving a full year outlook at this point, just Q2, but we'll remain on track. Kelly Crago: Thank you. Operator: Susan Anderson with B. Riley has the next question. Susan Anderson: Good morning. Nice job on the quarter. Nice to see the strong sales there. I'm curious how you're thinking about back-to-school this year as kids get back to school and then cycling of virtually no back-to-school last year. Are you planning that to start off in July this year? And then, also are you expecting to see a benefit as the child tax credit rolls out? Thanks. Fran Horowitz: Good morning, Susan. So, we are looking forward to a more normalized back-to-school this year. But we're still waiting to hear obviously from a lot of states on whether or not that is actually going to happen. So we're continuing to -- we cautiously optimistic about the back half. We're continuing to really take those disciplines that we learned from last year on managing our inventory tightly. We can react very well to our business. We're working still weekly with the team to read and react to what's happening and be able to chase the business, which is an amazing place for us todate. Scott Lipesky: Yes. I'll grab the child tax credit rollout. Hopefully, we'll see a bit of an impact on our business. We do have a younger. We tell to the younger side of the spectrum on the customer base. Looking back to Q1, we feel like we saw an impact, positively on our business from stimulus. Hard to value that and put a number around it. But if we continue to see that and the child tax credit does roll out, hopefully we'll see that, as back-to-school is happening all at the same time. Susan Anderson: Great. And just to follow-up on inventory. It sounds like you're still planning very conservatively. Should we expect that to be down also the rest of the year? And then just if you could talk about your expectations around the promotional environment, as we kind of go throughout the year, if you're expecting that to remain very lean and rational? Thanks. Fran Horowitz: Yes. I mean, as far as inventory goes, as I had mentioned, we are going to plan lean inventory. We have learned that there's a real pivot happening in our industry. And it's very exciting that the supply and demand is proving out that we can grow our margins and get higher AUR for our products. So we will continue to be lean. The best news is that we can chase the business. We got an very agile supply chain. We produce in 17 countries around the world. Excuse me, the team is very agile and being able to respond with my voice here. Sorry. Scott Lipesky: I'll grab the promotional part. The promotion written environment has been good. You can see that in across the industry, which is exciting, but you still have to have great products and keeping the inventory in line is very necessary to make that happen in the future. We'll see what happens in the future. We're going to play our hands, that's for sure. We're going to have a great product. We have awesome marketing campaigns and keep our inventory in line and that puts us in control of our promotional cadence. And that's how we're going to plan it, to your first question there around inventory is really all connected. Fran Horowitz: Sorry about that. I just had to jump. Thanks. Before it before our next question, operator, I guess it's been some incoming questions about Gilly Hicks. Gilly Hicks was up 90% there was some confusion that they thought, I said 9%, but it was up 90%. And the next question. Thank you. Operator: We'll now move to the next question from Jay Sole with UBS. Jay Sole: Great. Thank you so much. I guess my question is just on the margins. Just curious about the sustainability of the EBIT margin in Q1. I mean, the guidance for Q2 suggests that EBIT margin will get close to where you did in Q1. And then typically, the second half of the year, the EBIT margin seasonally are higher than Q1. I guess my question is really, how do we think about the EBIT margin in the second half of the year given what you've delivered in the first half of the year? And I guess, Scott, specifically on the SoHo Hollister store, was that -- what was the profitability of that store? Was that a negative profitability store in Colorado, that would be also appreciated? Thank you. Scott Lipesky: Yes. I'll kick off SoHo. So that store was a drag. We closed that store. We went dark. And that store back in Q2, 2019. But we still had a rent stream going forward. And so, it was nice to put some cash to work. We had the excess cash on our balance sheet to be able to pay off that lease liability in full at a discount. So it's good to get that out of the cash flow base, and off the liability side of the ledger. As we think about EBIT margins for the second half, we're not talking about the second half at this point. We're only going to focus on Q2 and our outlook. But to your point around sustainability, that's really what we've been trying to do as a company for the last three years. Reduce occupancy expense, reduce the fixed side of that expense as our customer continues to shift over to the digital side, which brings along much more variable. And so with last year store closures and rent negotiations, we've taken out a 100 plus million of store occupancy versus 2019 levels, which should enable us to have more consistent operating margins go forward. If and it's a big if. If you can keep getting that top line and keep good stable gross margin. So that's the formula that we're working with and a good progress on Q1. The outlook that we've laid out there for Q2, puts us in that same range. So that's what it's all about for us closing the gap to some of our peers, which we've owed our investors for a long time. Jay Sole: Got it. Okay. Thank you so much. Operator: Matt Boss for JPMorgan has the next question. Matt Boss: Great. Thanks. And congratulations on the improvement across both brands. Fran Horowitz: Thanks, Matt. Matt Boss: Maybe Fran, could you just speak maybe on that topic to the balanced strength that you're seeing across both of your brands. And with that the merchandising and marketing initiatives that I know over the past few years that you've put in place to really differentiate the concept? And then, as we look forward, how best or is there any way to think about the market share opportunity that you see? And just where do we go from here? Fran Horowitz: Okay. So, let's take that back to the start. So, it is pretty exciting to see that we have strengthened in all of our brands today and across genders. The balance that we're seeing in our businesses is super exciting. And it is a result to your point that of a lot of years of hard work and really setting each of the brands on their own paths. So where we have Abercrombie resonating, it's a really modern new version of the brand and it's resonating with that young millennial and appealing to their lifestyle. That coupled with the voice and the experiences. We like to say when those things come together, we see a true win. The Women's Business particularly is just a complete industry standout. It's just fantastic, what's happening in that business. She is responding to everything from our 96-hour collection, which is more about cozy, stay at home to dresses which are just terrific. So she's getting ready to also to go out. So we're providing her candidly with a balanced assortment. And it's appealing to each part of her lifestyle. In Hollister, again, product, voice and experience coming together, both girls and boys are resonating the girls business as well has a nice dress business happening. So she's obviously getting ready to go out and see the world again. And denim. Denim across both brands and across all genders has been strong, lots of exciting things that are happening within denim. Scott Lipesky: Let me grab the second part here on market share. We do feel like we have a market share opportunity across our brands. When you think back to where we peaked in sales back in 2012, we've ceded margin within the industry to other apparel retailers. But we've also ceded it outside the industry to technology and experiences and things like that. So, we do have an opportunity to go grab share. The grab share is about delivering amazing product and awesome marketing message. We have built that marketing muscle over the past couple of years. And we feel great about how each of our brands, all of our brands are positioned from a marketing perspective, the things we're doing on social media, very innovative social tourist is just a more recent example of that. So we think the combination of that product, voice and experience is the right formula. If we can deliver it, we can go get share. Matt Boss: Great to hear. Best of luck. Fran Horowitz: Thank you. Operator: Janine Stichter with Jefferies has the next question. Janine Stichter: Hi, good morning and congrats on the progress. Want to ask a bit about marketing. It seems like you're definitely earning return on the spend there. I'm wondering if there's any way to quantify the higher spend this year? And maybe talk a little bit about the plans. Sounds like a lot of it's going towards digital, but may be any more color by brand or channel. And then also want to ask about pricing. AUR is obviously very strong. Wondering if you've taken price up at all on like-for-like product. And if not, if that's something you would consider just as we start to get the hit from some of these raw materials costs coming in? Thank you. Fran Horowitz: Yes. I'm going to start that one backwards, Janine. We're going to start with the pricing. We are actually very comfortable with our product pricing across all of our brands. What's exciting is that what we've talked about for years is being able to reduce our discount to ticket and being less promotional. And that's really what we're seeing out there. So we're -- again, we're pleased with our ticket pricing, and very happy to see that we've been able to reduce a lot of the promotions. Scott Lipesky: Back to the marketing. This is an area of investment for the company. We will be above last year and also above 2019. Like I just mentioned in the last one, we have built great marketing teams, and each brand is very dialed into how they're marketing to their direct customer. So as we think about spending plans going forward, we're kind of -- we're test and learn culture here. We continue to test different opportunities across the marketing spectrum across digital channel, different digital channels and platforms. And we're excited about the returns we've seen and we're going to continue to fuel that top line growth with more marketing. Janine Stichter: Great. Thanks very much. Operator: We will now take a question from Mark Altschwager with Baird. Sarah Goldberg: Hi, good morning. This is Sarah Goldberg on for Mark. Thanks for taking our question. It's been great to see the high level of engagement behind the social tourists launch. Two questions there. How are you thinking about the incrementality of this brand versus the current offering at Hollister? And then, are there any differences in terms of gross margins or overall profitability? We should be mindful of given the new collaboration structure. Fran Horowitz: Yes. I mean, the way that we look at social tourists is creating a really exciting Halo for the Hollister brand. What we saw -- as we started to partner with Charli and Dixie early last year, we saw them bring in a new customer base for us. They tend to -- the girls tend to have a more forward. We talk a lot here about the trend pyramid. So they're a little bit more top of the pyramid and a little bit more advanced than our customers today. So a lot of what they will be doing will be showing new trends a little bit earlier on. We can then take that information and apply it to our Hollister brands. So there's lots of exciting angles with working with social tourists, and these girls are very close to this Gen Z consumer, as are we, they've learned a lot from us, we've learned a lot from them. And that's how we're going to continue to look at as we move forward. Scott Lipesky: On the financial side of it, the gross margins relatively consistent with the other brands. And when we think about the operating margins, there'll be a bit of a startup cost here as we continue to ramp that up from zero this year. So, there'll be -- it'll be less of a operating margin generator than the other brands. But like Fran just mentioned, the halo that we expect to see around the Hollister brands should be a good benefit. Sarah Goldberg: Great. Thank you. Operator: And Janet Kloppenburg with JJK Research Associates has the next question. Janet Kloppenburg: Hi, everybody. Congratulations on the strong improvement. I got a little bit late, Scott. So forgive me. But can you talk about for us to traffic levels. What you're seeing there month by month and how that may change your view on digital gains as we go forward, and some of the puts in place on margin associated with that missions? And also, I was wondering about strong full-price selling plan. And if you thought that maybe some price increases could take place given how much your product is resonating? And just lastly on Gilly, what do the margins look like there? And could that be a spin-off concept? Thank you. Scott Lipesky: I’ll start at the beginning, yes. All right. The store traffic levels by month, not going to get into details by month. But what I would say is that store traffic remains negative, you know, as we look back to 2019, and obviously positive versus 2020, since they were barely open, but it kind of is what it is. The economy's reopening slowly, faster in some places. You see a pretty much of a very scattered response across the U.S. and Europe. And that's fine. Does not change our view at all on digital gains. Our customers a digital first mindset. They're on the younger side of the age group. So everything starts digital, and sometimes it ends in the stores and sometimes it ends online. So no change there. As we think about margins. For us, the formula has been as the customer continues to shift online, we need to pay less rent and have less store expense if they're not there. So that's a lot of the work that we had done last year. We saw that play out here in Q1. So longer term, no change in our thinking about that balance. Fran Horowitz: And regarding -- I think the question was full-price selling and taking prices up. So, regarding full-price selling, as we've mentioned -- and we could not be more excited about the product acceptance that we're getting from our consumer. It really speaks to two key things. The right product and then this opportunity to really manage our inventory much tighter than we ever had in the past. So, we are not looking to currently raise our prices. What we've been able to do is reduce our promotions and our discounted ticket and that has really been something we've been working on and trying to get to for quite some time. So it's been exciting to realize that. Scott Lipesky: And on Gilly Hicks, the last piece, margins have been improving, which is great. We've built a great team within Gilly Hicks. They're expanding the assortment. And with that assortment expansion, we've seen margins come up, which is good. A spin-off concept. We're not thinking about it that way at this point. We think it's a nice growth vehicle. And we're putting the resources behind that from people and from a marketing side as well as the assortment in inventory like we just talked about. So we look at that as a growth vehicle for the company, and we'll focus on it that way. Janet Kloppenburg: Thank you so much. Best of luck. Fran Horowitz: Thanks, Janet. Operator: And we'll now hear from Marni Shapiro with Retail Tracker. Marni Shapiro: Hey, guys, congratulations, everybody. The stores have looked absolutely fantastic. I have a couple of product questions, if you wouldn’t mind. They’re quick short ones. Since restrictions have been eased across the country and in parts of Europe, have you seen a shift in the type of products that are selling or has that been pretty consistent through the first quarter? And could you talk a little bit also about your product quality? You guys have always had good product quality. There was a period of time where maybe it got a little bit less at some point, I think even before your time maybe a while ago. But it’s really improved across some of the categories in the stores, especially at Abercrombie, if you could touch a little bit on that? And then, just a follow-up on all the Social Tourist commentary, which I'm obsessed with. Is there an opportunity to partner with an influencer or somebody like Charli and Dixie at the Abercrombie brand and would you consider that? Sorry for so many. Fran Horowitz: That’s okay. Let me go back to the first question regarding have we seen a shift in the product. Yes, it’s interesting. We have seen an incredible acceleration of our dress business across both brands. But with that said, Marni, we saw a strong dress business throughout 2020 and throughout the shutdowns. So we have seen a shift, but our team is focused on really, as you know, staying as close to consumer as we can and fully understanding what he and she are up to in their lifestyle. And they still need a balance. There’s still some work from home. Now they’re starting to get out. But I would say, the biggest shift is dresses. It was strong, it’s even stronger now and that’s true for both brands. Thank you on your -- for your comments on quality. When I first got here, that was probably one of the very first initiatives I took on. The brand has -- both brands, Hollister and Abercrombie had really lost their focus on the quality, which had been inherently part of our legacy and our DNA. We are absolutely back to that commitment. The product that we are putting out there and the value equation that we provide for our consumer is terrific. And we’re hearing it from he and she all the time in social media on how much that they are realizing it. So, thank you for that. Regarding your third question on partnerships, we actually have partnerships across all of our brands. Currently, we have terrific partnerships. As an example, in Abercrombie women’s. We work with a lot of affiliates that sell our product on social channels. They’re introducing a lot of new consumers to our brand through that vehicle. So, it is something -- it goes to our real industry-leading social commerce opportunity that we talk about all the time and what we’re doing here with social commerce. Marni Shapiro: Would you consider doing a product launch with any of them or is it more just the affiliate marketing and things like that? Fran Horowitz: Yeah. At this point, what’s working for us is working with them as affiliates. And that’s kind of our focus at the moment. Marni Shapiro: Fantastic. Thanks so much, guys. Fran Horowitz: Sure. Thank you. Operator: We will now hear from Dylan Carden with William Blair. Dylan Carden: Awesome. Thank you. I was just curious -- I appreciate or acknowledge that it might be a little bit early for this question. But just on the retail footprint, you guys have been ahead of the curve there and you’re kind of highlighting some of the culmination of those efforts here on this print. Just any commentary about how you’re feeling about closures go forward, give and take between the two channels now that you’ve made a lot of efforts to kind of link them up would just be appreciated -- just appreciate any sort of comments you can provide there? Thanks. Fran Horowitz: I think, Dylan, it is early. We are excited about the progress we were able to make in 2020, as you noted, closing an additional 130-plus stores and really taking that very unproductive square footage out of our store base. We still have an opportunity. We keep 50% of our leases up for renewal over the next couple of years. We keep a very fluid lease stack. Those negotiations candidly haven’t started yet for this year. So, as we head into the back half of the year and we start those negotiations with our landlord, we’ll have more to report at that point. Scott Lipesky: Yes. Just to add on a little bit. As we think about more broadly how the store network plays with digital, it’s really about supporting the omni-channel experience in a certain market. And that’s really how we look at it, how many stores you need in a particular city or a catchment to drive the total omni-channel business and what size should those stores be. We’ve been shrinking our stores. You’ve been on this journey with us for years. We need to continue to do that. We still have some stores that are oversized. So we still have an opportunity to thin out that square footage, but really when you take a step back, it’s about supporting that omni-channel brand experience within each market. Dylan Carden: Make sense. Thanks guys. Nice work. Fran Horowitz: Thank you. Operator: And with that, ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude your question and answer session for today. I will turn the call back to Fran Horowitz for any additional or closing remarks. Fran Horowitz: Thanks. So, thank you, everyone, for participating in our call today. I hope you all enjoy your summer. I look forward to speaking with you in August when we report our second quarter results. Operator: With that, we will conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. And you may now disconnect.
Abercrombie & Fitch Tops Q4 Estimates but Shares Drop 12% on Weak Q1 Outlook
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) reported fourth-quarter results that slightly exceeded analyst expectations, yet its shares tumbled more than 12% intra-day today as its first-quarter guidance came in weaker than anticipated.
The apparel retailer posted adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.57, just ahead of the consensus estimate of $3.56. Revenue rose 9% year-over-year to $1.58 billion, surpassing analyst projections of $1.56 billion. Comparable sales saw a robust 14% increase during the quarter.
For the full fiscal year 2024, Abercrombie delivered strong growth, with net sales rising 16% to $4.95 billion, supported by a 17% jump in comparable sales. The company also saw a notable improvement in profitability, with its operating margin expanding to 15.0%, up 370 basis points from the previous year.
Despite these positive results, the company’s first-quarter fiscal 2025 outlook disappointed investors. Abercrombie forecasts Q1 EPS between $1.25 and $1.45, significantly below the consensus estimate of $2.01. The company expects net sales growth between 4% and 6% for the quarter.
For the full fiscal year 2025, Abercrombie anticipates net sales growth of 3% to 5% and EPS in the range of $10.40 to $11.40, with the midpoint slightly trailing analyst expectations of $11.30.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) Anticipates Strong Quarterly Earnings
- Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise by 17.5% to $3.49, indicating a potential boost in the company's stock price.
- The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 9.17, suggesting that investors are paying a reasonable amount for its earnings.
- ANF's debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.76, showing a moderate level of debt relative to equity, which ensures financial stability.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) is a well-known American retailer specializing in casual wear. The company has a strong presence in the fashion industry, with a focus on brand expansion and appealing product assortments. ANF competes with other major retailers like American Eagle and Hollister. The company is set to release its quarterly earnings on March 5, 2025, with Wall Street estimating earnings per share (EPS) of $3.49 and revenue of approximately $1.57 billion.
The anticipated strong fourth-quarter results for fiscal 2024 are largely due to a successful holiday season, as highlighted by Zacks. ANF's growth is driven by strategic brand expansion and engaging marketing strategies. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects fourth-quarter revenues at $1.56 billion, a 7.6% increase from the previous year. This growth reflects the company's ability to attract customers with its appealing product offerings.
Earnings per share are expected to rise by 17.5% to $3.49, compared to $2.97 in the same quarter last year. Despite a slight downward revision in earnings estimates over the past week, ANF has consistently surpassed earnings expectations, with an average surprise of 14.8% over the last four quarters. This track record suggests that the company may once again exceed consensus estimates, potentially boosting its stock price.
ANF's financial metrics indicate a solid market valuation. The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 9.17, while the price-to-sales ratio stands at about 1.01. These figures suggest that investors are paying a reasonable amount for the company's earnings and sales. Additionally, the enterprise value to sales ratio is around 1.07, reflecting the company's total valuation relative to its sales.
The company's financial health is further supported by an enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio of approximately 7.27, indicating efficient conversion of operating cash flow into enterprise value. ANF's debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.76, showing a moderate level of debt relative to equity. With a current ratio of about 1.40, the company has a good level of liquidity to cover its short-term liabilities, ensuring financial stability.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) Earnings Preview: What to Expect
- Wall Street anticipates ANF's EPS to be $2.37 with projected revenues of approximately $1.18 billion for the third-quarter fiscal 2024.
- The Zacks Consensus Estimate forecasts revenues of $1.2 billion, an 11.8% increase from the previous year, and a consensus EPS of $2.32, reflecting a 26.8% rise from last year's $1.83 per share.
- ANF has consistently delivered an average earnings surprise of 28% over the last four quarters, suggesting a strong possibility of another earnings beat.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) is a well-known American retailer specializing in casual wear. The company operates under several brands, including Abercrombie & Fitch, Abercrombie Kids, and Hollister Co. It competes with other retail giants like American Eagle Outfitters and Gap Inc. ANF is set to release its third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings on November 26, 2024.
Wall Street anticipates ANF's earnings per share (EPS) to be $2.37, with projected revenues of approximately $1.18 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate closely aligns with these figures, forecasting revenues of $1.2 billion, an 11.8% increase from the previous year. The consensus EPS is $2.32, reflecting a 26.8% rise from last year's $1.83 per share.
In the previous quarter, ANF exceeded earnings expectations by 16.8%, and over the last four quarters, it has consistently delivered an average earnings surprise of 28%. This trend suggests a strong possibility of another earnings beat, as highlighted by Zacks Investment Research. Such performance is often driven by strong demand for its products and improved profit margins.
The company's financial metrics provide further insight into its performance. ANF has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.53, indicating how the market values its earnings. Its price-to-sales ratio is 1.66, showing investor willingness to pay per dollar of sales. The enterprise value to sales ratio is 1.70, reflecting the company's total valuation relative to its sales.
ANF's financial health is also evident in its low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17, suggesting conservative debt usage. The current ratio of 1.44 indicates the company's ability to cover short-term liabilities with short-term assets. These metrics, combined with an earnings yield of 6.44%, highlight ANF's strong financial position ahead of its earnings release.
Abercrombie & Fitch Added to JPMorgan's Positive Catalyst Watch List, Stock Surges 9%
Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) gained more than 9% on Friday after JPMorgan Chase added the retailer to its Positive Catalyst Watch list, signaling confidence in the stock's near-term potential.
The bank cited increased momentum in both Abercrombie's namesake brand and its Hollister division, particularly during the key back-to-school shopping period. Promotional activity has also been more favorable, contributing to the company’s performance across various product categories, demographics, and regions as it approaches third-quarter earnings, despite industry concerns about a weather-related slowdown.
The retailer's reliance on West Coast ports for imports has helped it mitigate supply chain disruptions caused by a recent strike at East and Gulf Coast ports. JPMorgan highlighted that Abercrombie's supply chain teams managed to navigate the challenges with advanced visibility into the situation, as dockworkers and carriers recently reached a deal to suspend the strike.
Abercrombie & Fitch Beats Q2 Estimates, But Shares Drop 16%
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) posted strong second-quarter results on Wednesday, beating Wall Street expectations for both earnings and revenue. However, despite the upbeat performance, its shares dropped over 16% intra-day following the announcement.
The apparel retailer reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.50, surpassing the projected $2.19. Revenue climbed 21% year-over-year to $1.13 billion, ahead of the $1.1 billion consensus. Comparable sales surged 18% in the quarter, with Abercrombie brands growing by 26% and Hollister brands increasing by 17%. The company's gross profit margin also expanded by 240 basis points, reaching 64.9%.
CEO Fran Horowitz credited the strong execution for the better-than-expected sales growth and profitability in Q2.
For the full fiscal year 2024, Abercrombie raised its net sales growth forecast to 12% to 13%, up from the previous guidance of around 10%, and increased its operating margin outlook to a range of 14% to 15%. Looking ahead, the company anticipates low double-digit sales growth for the third quarter compared to Q3 2023's $935 million in revenue.
Citi Analyst Predicts Another EPS Beat for Abercrombie & Fitch
Citi analysts maintained a Neutral rating and a $190 price target on Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF), expressing optimism for another strong earnings beat in the company's upcoming Q2 report, scheduled on August 28.
The analysts anticipate solid results for both the Abercrombie and Hollister brands, with double-digit comp growth, improved gross margins, and an increase in average unit retail (AUR) due to reduced promotional activity. The analysts expect the company to raise its full-year 2024 sales guidance from 10% to 12%, potentially pushing EPS guidance above $10, surpassing consensus estimates.
Despite recent declines in stock price tied to weaker third-party data in July, the analysts see no slowdown in momentum for the brands and predict significant earnings upside for the year, maintaining a favorable risk/reward outlook ahead of the Q2 earnings release.
Citigroup Upgrades Abercrombie & Fitch to Buy Rating
- Citigroup upgraded to Abercrombie & Fitch's Buy rating, increasing the price target to $190 from $150.
- The stock reached an all-time high of $189.45, reflecting strong financial health and market presence.
- Abercrombie & Fitch's market capitalization has reached around $9.68 billion, indicating a strong position in the competitive retail sector.
On Thursday, May 30, 2024, Citigroup upgraded Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) to a Buy rating from a previous hold position, setting a new price target of $190, up from $150. This decision by Citigroup comes at a time when ANF's stock price reached an all-time high of $189.45, as reported by TheFly. Abercrombie & Fitch, a renowned retailer known for its apparel and accessories, has shown remarkable performance in the stock market, reflecting the company's strong financial health and market presence.
The upgrade by Citigroup is backed by the significant growth in ANF's stock value, which recently soared to $189.45, marking a 24.32% increase. This surge in stock price is not only a milestone for Abercrombie & Fitch but also a testament to the company's robust market performance and investor confidence. The stock's journey to its all-time high, peaking at $196.98, and the substantial trading volume of approximately 10.11 million shares underscore the heightened interest and optimism among investors.
Abercrombie & Fitch's financial health is further highlighted by its impressive market capitalization, which has reached around $9.68 billion. This valuation is a significant achievement for the company, indicating its strong position in the competitive retail sector. The stock's performance, fluctuating between a low of $155.56 and a high of $196.98 throughout the trading day, showcases the dynamic nature of ANF's market presence and investor enthusiasm.
The reasons cited by Citigroup for the optimistic adjustment in ANF's rating and price target likely stem from the company's financial achievements and market performance. The stock's all-time high and the substantial increase in its price reflect positively on Abercrombie & Fitch's operational success and strategic initiatives. This upgrade and the positive market response highlight the company's potential for continued growth and its appeal to both current and potential investors.
In summary, Citigroup's decision to upgrade Abercrombie & Fitch to a Buy rating and increase the price target to $190 is well-supported by the company's recent stock performance and financial milestones. The significant surge in ANF's stock price, reaching an all-time high, along with its robust market capitalization and trading volume, underscore the company's strong market position and financial health. This optimistic outlook from Citigroup reflects confidence in Abercrombie & Fitch's potential for continued success in the competitive retail industry.
