Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) on Q1 2021 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Operator: Good morning and welcome to the Alpha Metallurgical Resources First Quarter 2021 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Emily O'Quinn. Please go ahead.
Emily O'Quinn: Thank you Jason and good morning everyone. Before we get started, let me remind you that during our prepared remarks and the Q&A period, our comments relating to expected business and financial performance contain forward-looking statements and actual results may differ materially from those discussed.
David Stetson: Good morning to everyone on the call and thank you for joining us today. I'm looking forward to discussing our first quarter results today and hearing from Jason, Andy and Dan about details the quarter in each of their respective areas. I want to start by committing the team on another productive quarter that drove continued progress on our long-term goals and initiatives. From a financial and sales perspective, the first quarter was solid with adjusted EBITDA of $29 million in net cost of coal sales coming in roughly at the mid-point of guidance, our sales volumes were excellent for the quarter and our overall realizations increase in comparison to Q4 2020. Had it not been for the market effects of prolonged tensions between Australia and China, those sell realizations would have likely have been higher. For example, if you set aside our tons that were sold into the quarter against the unusually low Australian indices, our average realization on the remaining was $91 per ton, while it is unclear how long Australian coal will be unwelcome in China, we are seeking opportunities to proactively manage around the downward pressure of the Australian indices and position ourselves well for the remainder of the year. Operationally, a lot of work occurred behind the scenes in Q1 to transition crews and equipment from operations that we're mining out to our newer mines that have been ramping up. Although we announced it on our last call, Alpha received word in the first that our obligations under the EPA consent decree had been fulfilled marking another positive milestone for us. A few weeks ago, our Republic energy subsidiary received another permit approval to expand mining reserves in Raleigh County, West Virginia. Jason, will go into more details about our plans for this project, which is part of our work Workman Creek surface mine, and the permit name is Turkey foot. While we don't have a firm date for this project on the books yet permit approvals are important, early steps, and we are excited about the many benefits of this project, both for our company and the local communities near the project site.
Jason Whitehead: Thanks David and good morning everyone. Before I go into the details of our first quarter performance, I want to provide some additional information about the Turkey foot permit and said some side, our Wharton Greek operation, as David mentioned, we're pleased to receive approval for the Republic energy article three, an NPDS permit for Turkey foot, which will ultimately expand our existing mining reserve base and provide future sustainability to the Walkman Creek complex.
Andy Eidson: Thanks Jason. It was another strong quarter for alpha in terms of cost performance that they'd be Dodge generation improving materially from fourth quarter last year. Now that said strong sales volume, then improved pricing as well as some evolving customer terms. We'll talk about resulted in a significant increase in receivables during the quarter, leading to a net decrease in cash balances. And we'll dig into that a little bit, a little bit later for Q1, our adjusted EBITDA was $28.9 million of substantially from 7.4 million in the fourth quarter of 22, the stronger volumes and increased met coal realizations are met segment shipment volume increased 14% to 3.7 million tons with average realization, improving non percent over the fourth quarter resulting in that segment revenue increase of 24% to three, $300 million. We also saw strong improvement in our quarter over quarter met segment margins, which increased 72% to $10 28 per ton.
Dan Horn: Thanks, Andy. And good morning, everyone. As David mentioned earlier, our first quarter shipments were very strong and we were able to improve our overall realizations against fourth quarter 2020, despite the negative effects of the Australian indices and the step-down in domestic contract prices from 20.8 to 2021, I will let go the positive comments from the rest of the group and commend the sales team on a job well done for the quarter, because I'm sure you're aware whole companies are experiencing distinctly different market dynamics right now, depending on their primary market destinations, the types of coal they're selling and how those times are priced. For example, over the last couple of weeks pricing a ton of low ball against the U S East coast embassies versus the Australian indices would show as much as a $60 swing between the two and even greater disparity can be seen between Australia fob and China's CFR indices, which recently reached the largest spread on record and a difference of over $115. Obviously the uniqueness of the circumstances surrounding China and Australia has had a ripple effect throughout the entire industry. And I want to provide some additional context on the impact of alpha our approach in mitigating these challenges. And I brought her expectations for the remainder of the year. Of course, I won't get into any customer or contract specifics, but I can provide a little bit of color around our thinking often shipments that are based on the Australian indices, continue to receive much welder realizations than the rest of our block. In fact, our first quarter realizations were North of $90 for all funds sold. It was not priced on the osculating indices. Therefore, as Dave mentioned earlier, we were looking at ways to optimize our export mix, to capitalize on Atlantic pricing, which is currently much more attractive as always, we remain committed to fulfilling our contract obligations. Some of which were negotiated when Australian indices were roughly in line with the Atlantic basin pricing, but we've also taken the advantage. I'm sorry, we've also taken advantage of the opportunity to make a few sales into China this year, but we've also been mindful of the significant challenges. Certain countries around the world are experiencing with dangerously high code, the case numbers, at least situations as possible that economic activity in someone's locations may also be impacted on the positive side global and us steel crude steel production continues to trend upward with world steel association statistics in March showing growth of 15.8% in year over year global steel shot, unsurprisingly China. And you look at the way over that period with 19.1 and 17.5% growth respectively. And in their short run job with world steel projects, 5.8% growth for 2021 and 2.7% grades in 2022 Europe, which is one of the office primary export destinations is expect to see more than 10% growth this year, nearly 5% next year. And U S steel mill cap capacity utilization is approaching any percent year, which is not a good sign in the North American domestic market demand remains solid and supply remains tight with growing confidence that the stimulus bill will be passed, which should further enhance the outlook for stealing from Mexico. We are cautiously optimistic about the opportunities for additional tonnages as well. There's certainly no lack of market dynamics to evolve with the China Australia tensions commanding the most attachment right now. However, from our perspective, these kinds of videos and proceeds in the market highlight the importance of diversity in our customer bases and coal qualities in our sales capabilities, all of which I was proud to have as the largest and most diversified metals supplier in the United States, we enjoy some additional optionality and the ability to adjust when necessary, which is exactly what we will continue to do. I think that that wraps up our prepared remarks for the quarter operator. I think we're ready to open up the line for questions.
Operator: Okay. We will now begin the question and answer session to ask any questions . Then two, our first question comes from Nathan Martin from the Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.
Nathan Martin: Hey, good morning guys. Congrats on the quarter. Dan, you just gave us some great comments, but I wanted to first dig into the export side just a little bit more. I think obviously India, one of your major export customers dealing with a pretty bad wave of COVID right now. Can you guys give us an update from what you're hearing from your customers in that market and the potential disruption there? I think I just read that one of their major steel mills announced production cuts due their oxygen shortage related to the pandemic. So just any thoughts there, then ?
Dan Horn: We haven't heard anything specific yet. I did see something this morning about a force majeure at one of the ports. We're watching it closely. We we're staying in touch with our customers over there. Nothing to report at the moment.
Nathan Martin: Got it. Thanks Dan. And then if we shift over to China, there was another big $10 jump in CFR, China park this morning, and you guys mentioned you've moved some coal into that market, you know, higher net backs. The Atlantic basin are all feet and give us an idea of how much coal maybe you could ship to China this year, assuming that the ban on Australian coal imports continue you know, and then extent that demand and does weekend from India, if you could be placed in those times of that GFR China market?
Dan Horn: Yeah, well, I think Nate, what I would say is we can, we can, and we intend to ship Thomas into those markets. I would say it's not only India it's anywhere that anywhere we see prices that are indexed to the Aussie indices. There are other customers in the Atlantic basin that we also sell index to the Aussie index. So as those times roll off contracts and tenders and such those times in our mind will be, are marked with China. We ship three vessels to China so far this year. So I don't have a number to give you a specific number, but I think I can imagine shipping, you know, that many more, you know, in the, in the future, in the near future.
Nathan Martin: Okay. So good point then if then you guys do have some, some tons available as your contract for a while, since you could take advantage of that?
Dan Horn: Yes. As I said, we maintain a lot of optionality in our book at all times and we can react pretty quickly to move different calls. We've got some new minds coming onto the producing. Well, we've got some additional low-vol from our coupler operation that that's pretty sought after these days. So we have you know, we have some optionality we can play with.
Nathan Martin: That's great. And then I kind of look at the transportation side of things. God, can you comment maybe on how rail services has? I know that, you know, it's, it's been listening to the rails and your service is not quite been as good as people would poke and maybe rates and real, still pricing based on that, your ultimate export destination that helps keep your school competitive.
Dan Horn: Yeah, I it's been challenging at times. The rail service I will say is a domestic or some of our domestic customers are CMC delays. They're obviously running their Coke plants hard, and they're not seeing perhaps all of the services they'd like to see. And the times we've had some challenges getting the cold export, but by and large, we're hitting our shipments, but I I'd have to say, let's see real service improvement that.
David Stetson: Nate, this is David stats. And we've met with, with both fork and CSX over the last ninth. And I'm feeling cautiously optimistic that some of the service disruptions that you've seen in the past are going to be corrected. I know CSX has made a huge effort to bring on more crews and more staffing and allowing the increase in, in, in their, for this, from a service perspective. So well, it certainly has been so much challenging the past. We're, we're cautious, optimistic that both in essence CSX are, are moving in the right direction.
Nathan Martin: That's great. Great to hear David and then just finally made the move over, cause the cost side of things, another fantastic quarter for you guys in that frack. Congratulations. I was a little surprised at how low the other thermal result came in at 43 bucks are given the full year guidance. So is there anything, one time in that quarter that going throw those costs lower or is that a time that they did their four year costs to kind of try and down towards that number?
Andy Eidson: Hey, Nate, it's Andy. I don't think there was anything one time and again, since we're kind of maintaining guidance on that it just, it just depends on as with all things underground where the geology and I mean, we just had a good quarter. We'd love to see that replicate itself throughout the, the rest of the year, but this point, you know, we'll just hold gardens where it is. But the operations team across the board has just continued to deliver excellent performance over and over again.
Nathan Martin: That's perfect. Thank you guys for your time and all that information and take care.
Operator: Again, Then one, the next question comes from Lucas Pipes from the Riley securities. Please go ahead.
Lucas Pipes: Hey, good morning, everyone. Good job on the water. I wanted to first hone in on the pricing side as well. And kind of when I think about your guidance for the year 64% at 85 65 per ton, and then Q1, you sold medical at $82 per time. So can you help us kind of in between the higher committed tons plus what the spot market is doing? Where should we kind of think about Q2 Q3, but really kind of a bridge to Q2 would be super helpful here. Thank you.
Andy Eidson: In terms of, yeah. As usual you asked the question that I really don't even want to attempt to answer because we're dealing with it's, such a multivariate analysis going on right now, as Dan mentioned. We've got a lot of things going on as far as how we're thinking about participating in the markets over the next couple of quarters, because of the disconnect between the indices trying to breach that out. that's kind of tough to do. Well, Q2 probably isn't that much different as far as customer mix or regional mix as compared to Q1. So you can kind of take those, those thoughts and apply them to how the markets have moved. You know, unfortunately all the index going one direction and the, the East coast going a better direction. You know, maybe that gets the average back to a similar outcome, but again, I don't want to guide to Q2 too early when we're you know, not even really halfway through it. So I'll, I'll stop rambling and, and stop my non-answer there. I just, I just don't want to give you something that even we don't have a ton of visibility into just yet.
Lucas Pipes: Okay. No, I appreciate that. I'll, ask one follow up on this for the call it 36% that are unpriced on the medical side. What percent of we model off us East coast assessments versus the lower Australian assessment?
Andy Eidson: I would, well, let me put it like this. I mean, historically we've seen call it between 20 and 30% of our, of our export met times have been priced off of the Ozzy PLV index. I don't know that we can apply it just like, you know, peanut butter spread across every breakdown, whether it's committed or committed and priced are committed. And unpriced, I'm afraid to don't have that number in front of me at the moment, but I would guess that that that percentage probably does apply. So when that, you know, call it 25 ish percent of those of that that's tied to indexes in the future is probably going to be POV. Right.
Lucas Pipes: Got it. And then for the remaining 75%, we should predominantly use a high volume high will be index.
Andy Eidson: Yeah. I mean, all of the things being equal, but again, things are, things are moving and that's the trouble with the stuff being priced then or being committed. And unpriced you know, those cargoes can fall off. If we do run into, you know, they mentioned it was forced Missouri issue, a different place here and there. And, you know, shifting the ton is around as they discussed. But as things stand right now, again, all things being equal, I think that's probably how it will play out.
Lucas Pipes: Got it. Thank you. Thank you very much for that. That's helpful. And then a followup on the cost side. Good, good job. And in Q1 and in the release, you mentioned inflationary pressures diesel you call out now when I think back I believe this guidance was initially issued in November, so terrific job to, to maintain through, Through may. And obviously the world has changed in a very positive way, but it's much, much, much higher commodity prices all around. So when you think about cost position today with the pressure from the raw material side labor we'd appreciate your thoughts where you see the pressure points. It's what extent upside risk to fill your cost expectations?
Andy Eidson: I think we're just, I mean, we've seen the first salvo of increases in raw materials costs. I think there's no doubt there's more to come. I think, I mean, inflationary pressures is what it is. And, and we'll deal with that. I do think the guys have done a really nice job and we move, we did budget some raw materials increases into, into what we presented as guides to begin with. So some of that's just playing out as expected was probably hitting critical mass earlier than we expected. But thus far I mean we, for every penny it's up the gods found a penny on the other side to offset it. I do think labor is a potential point of, of exposure and that's just in the industry actually that's across the country, you know, all sectors are seeing labor pressures, but as far as specifics, Jason, if you have any, anything you'd like to add on that? No, I think, I think that's right, Andy most, mostly diesel fuel is probably the most impact that we've seen which is probably on the order of a dollar and a half a ton or something like that. Smaller, smaller things like steel surcharges for certain items but those really minimal in comparison?
Lucas Pipes: All right. That's very helpful. Continue best of luck. I really appreciate all the details.
Andy Eidson: Thanks, Lucas. I appreciate it. And before I turn it over to David or wrap up, I didn't want to make one correction of a errata. In my comments hour, I misspoke on our CapEx guidance. The range is actually 75 to 95, rather than 80 to a hundred. So mid-points a little bit lower than I initially stated so David.
David Stetson: Well, thanks. I appreciate everybody jumping on the call today. We appreciate everyone's support of alpha and we want, we wish everybody a wonderful day and a wonderful week. Thank you.
Operator: The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
