AMD Shares Drop 7% on Disappointing Q4 Guidance Despite Strong Q3 Results

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) wrapped up a stellar fourth quarter, exceeding Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations. However, investor sentiment took a hit, sending shares down over 9% in premarket trading on Wednesday after the company signaled a slowdown in its data center business for the upcoming quarter.

During Q4, AMD capitalized on surging demand for artificial intelligence computing and widespread adoption of its EPYC processors, driving robust financial results. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.09, narrowly beating analysts’ projections of $1.08. Revenue soared to a record-breaking $7.7 billion, marking a 24% year-over-year increase and outpacing the forecasted $7.54 billion.

The standout performer was AMD’s Data Center division, which saw its revenue nearly double on the back of increasing demand for its EPYC server chips. This segment played a key role in AMD’s overall 2024 success, which was marked by record-breaking full-year revenue of $25.8 billion and a non-GAAP gross margin peaking at 53%.

Despite these achievements, the outlook for Q1 2025 has investors on edge. AMD projects revenue in the range of $6.8 billion to $7.4 billion, with the midpoint slightly exceeding analyst expectations of $7.04 billion. However, concerns over a potential slowdown in data center sales appear to be overshadowing the otherwise strong financials, fueling the stock’s sharp premarket decline.

AMD’s leadership remains confident in the company’s long-term trajectory, emphasizing ongoing momentum in high-performance computing and AI acceleration. Still, with investors closely watching the competitive landscape and demand trends, the coming quarters will be critical in determining whether AMD can sustain its growth trajectory.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMD) is a key player in the semiconductor industry, offering a range of products such as microprocessors, GPUs, and SoC products. AMD caters to a diverse clientele, including original equipment manufacturers and cloud service providers. The company competes with other major players like Nvidia in the AI chip market.

Over the past year, the consensus price target for AMD's stock has seen a downward revision. A year ago, the average price target was $192.36, but it has now stabilized at $129. This shift may reflect changes in market conditions, company performance, or broader industry trends. Notably, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh has set a price target of $100 for AMD, indicating a positive outlook amidst the evolving AI landscape.

Recent developments in the AI chip market, such as DeepSeek's open-source large language model, have caught the attention of investors. DeepSeek's achievement, completed in just two months at a cost of under $6 million, could disrupt the AI chip market, which is currently dominated by AMD and Nvidia. Despite this, AMD's AI accelerators, like the Instinct MI300X, continue to attract hyperscalers due to their competitive price-to-performance ratios.

AMD is expected to report strong fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, driven by growth in its client and data center segments. This performance comes despite challenges in the Gaming and Embedded segments. The company's aggressive investments in AI are yielding positive results, with notable growth in Data Center revenue. Analyst John Vinh's $100 price target reflects optimism about AMD's potential to capitalize on its data center revenues.

As AMD approaches the release of its upcoming quarterly report, the company is positioned at a crucial technical level. Despite negative revision trends and emerging threats like DeepSeek, AMD remains attractive from a fundamental perspective. The market's reaction to recent news is seen as irrational, prompting some investors to double their positions in AMD. The company's stock is currently trading at nearly a 50% discount compared to its historical price-to-earnings ratio.

AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) remains on strong footing heading into 2025, according to Northland analysts, who reiterated an Outperform rating and a $175 price target on the semiconductor giant. Despite recent market speculation, the analysts see multiple tailwinds supporting AMD’s growth, particularly in AI and server markets, as well as a shift in industry sentiment that could benefit the stock.

Recent rumors surrounding AMD’s reported orders for CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) technology at TSMC have been misunderstood, the analysts noted. Instead, these orders are likely shifting to Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) providers, given TSMC's current CoWoS production constraints.

Looking at the company’s broader market position, AMD appears poised to turn previous headwinds in embedded chips and gaming into moderate tailwinds in 2025. Meanwhile, AI and data center demand remain robust, positioning AMD to gain market share in these high-growth segments.

The analysts also addressed ongoing speculation about Microsoft’s dissatisfaction with AMD, calling it largely dependent on perspective. While some reports suggest frustration over AMD’s open-source AI software, the broader narrative in cloud computing suggests that hyperscalers have grown increasingly frustrated with NVIDIA—particularly with its data center product gross margins reaching as high as 90% and its aggressive competitive stance.

The recent emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup leveraging an open-source framework, has further validated AMD’s approach, suggesting that cloud service providers (CSPs) are increasingly interested in alternatives to NVIDIA’s proprietary CUDA software ecosystem. AMD has already proven its ability to compete with dominant incumbents in the server market, and with hyperscalers maintaining visibility into its product roadmap, confidence in the company’s execution remains strong.

Despite a generally negative sentiment heading into AMD’s earnings report, the analysts believe that even results that are "not as bad as feared" could serve as a catalyst for a stock rebound. With AI, data center, and open-source software momentum building, AMD appears well-positioned to navigate market challenges and sustain long-term growth.

Wolfe Research downgraded Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) from Outperform to Peer Perform, citing reduced expectations for the company’s datacenter GPU revenue in the upcoming year. The adjustment reflects concerns over the pace of growth in this critical segment.

The analysts now anticipate AMD’s datacenter GPU revenue to reach $7 billion in 2025, representing approximately 37% year-over-year growth. This is a significant reduction from the earlier forecast of $10 billion or more. Additionally, the company is not expected to provide specific guidance for its datacenter GPU business during its upcoming fourth-quarter earnings call, adding to the uncertainty surrounding its near-term prospects.

In terms of valuation, AMD currently trades at about 28 times the revised 2025 earnings per share estimate of $4.19, slightly below its five-year average price-to-earnings ratio of 31x. In comparison, NVIDIA trades at 32x 2025 EPS estimates, reflecting a smaller discount relative to its five-year average of 37x.

AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) shares fell more than 2% pre-market today after HSBC analysts downgraded the stock to Reduce from Buy, slashing the price target nearly in half to $110 from $200. The move reflects concerns over AMD's competitive position in the AI GPU market and potential setbacks in its product roadmap.

The analysts highlighted tepid demand for AMD's new MI325 GPU and potential delays in the launch of a competitive AI rack solution as key factors limiting the company’s ability to gain ground against market leader Nvidia. This outlook led to a significant downward revision in AMD's fiscal 2025 AI GPU revenue projections, which were reduced from $12.3 billion to $8.1 billion—well below the market consensus of $9.5 billion.

While AMD’s share price has already declined 24% over the past three months, the analysts see further downside. They noted that AMD’s penetration into the AI GPU market is likely to be much weaker than previously expected, further weighing on its valuation.

The company’s product roadmap remains on track with the MI350 chip expected to launch in the second half of 2025. However, the analysts believe AMD’s ability to compete directly with Nvidia’s NVL rack platform will be delayed until late 2025 or early 2026, coinciding with the anticipated launch of the MI400.

Northland analysts reaffirmed an Outperform rating and a $175 price target for AMD (NASDAQ:AMD), highlighting the company’s strong position across AI GPUs, server CPUs, and PC clients. With headwinds in the embedded and gaming segments easing, AMD is set to deliver substantial growth through 2025.

AMD’s gains in the AI market are driven by its competitive roadmap and superior total cost of ownership (TCO). AI-related revenue is projected to surge to $9.5 billion in 2025, up from $5.2 billion, reflecting a 7% increase in the first half of the year compared to the second half of 2024. The ramp-up of AMD’s MI325X chip is expected to be a game-changer, offering hardware performance competitive with NVIDIA’s H200. While software remains a key challenge, AMD’s hardware advancements put it in a strong position for growth, according to the analysts.

In the server market, AMD continues to outpace Intel, with early indications showing its Turin CPUs outperform Granite Rapids in most workloads. Non-AI data center revenue is forecasted to grow by 26% year-over-year in 2024 to $7.7 billion, with an additional 10% growth projected in 2025. These estimates are considered conservative, leaving room for upside potential.

The PC client segment also offers a compelling growth story. With Microsoft ending support for Windows 10, an estimated 1.2 billion systems will need upgrading. AMD is poised to benefit, with approximately 40% of these systems, or 480 million units, expected to be replaced over the next 18 months. Despite elevated channel inventory in the PC market, AMD’s inventory levels are healthy, and spot shortages highlight robust demand for its products.

With leadership across key markets, a strong product pipeline, and favorable industry tailwinds, AMD is well-positioned for substantial upside, making it a top pick for 2025 at Northland.

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) shares fell nearly 2% pre-market today after Bank of America downgraded the company to Neutral from Buy, citing potential risks to its 2025 outlook. The firm also reduced its price target from $180 to $155 and cut its 2025/26 earnings estimates by 6% and 8%, respectively, reflecting a significant 13-23% gap from consensus projections.

Two key factors contributed to the downgrade. First, Bank of America expressed concerns over competitive pressures in the AI sector. NVIDIA and custom chip providers like Marvell and Broadcom were highlighted as major players that could hinder AMD’s market share growth in AI accelerators. The firm pointed to signals from Amazon, AMD’s largest cloud customer, which indicated a preference for custom solutions such as Trainium, Marvell, and NVIDIA products, limiting demand for AMD’s offerings. Similar trends were observed among other cloud giants like Google.

Bank of America projected that AMD would hold just 4% of the $200 billion AI accelerator market by 2025, far behind NVIDIA’s dominant share of over 80%.

The second concern centered on the potential for a correction in the PC processor market. AMD’s client PC sales had surged 40% in the latter half of 2024, but the firm anticipated a slowdown in the first half of 2025, which could challenge the company’s growth trajectory.

Despite these challenges, the note acknowledged AMD’s strong execution and its ability to capitalize on Intel’s ongoing restructuring issues, which provide opportunities for AMD to expand its market share in PC and server CPUs. Additionally, the company’s partnerships with Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle were viewed as strategic positives.

However, Bank of America tempered its outlook by emphasizing that AMD’s prospects in the AI sector remain limited, reducing the likelihood of the company exceeding Street estimates.