Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) on Q4 2021 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Autodesk Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Results Conference Call. I would now like to hand the conference to your speaker today, Simon Mays-Smith, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir. Simon Mays-Smith: Thanks, operator, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss the results of our fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021. On the line with me is Andrew Anagnost, our CEO; Stephen Hope, Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, and Abhey Lamba, our Vice President of Go-to-Market Finance. Andrew Anagnost: Thank you, Simon, and welcome everyone to the call. I hope you and your families remain safe and healthy. Before jumping into our fourth quarter and full-year results, I would like to again thank our employees and the families and communities that support them as well as our partners and customers, for their continued commitment during uncertain times. That commitment, combined with our resilient subscription business model and the secular shift to the cloud, enabled us to maintain momentum and exceed our goals. We generated strong growth, with full-year subscription revenue and remaining performance obligations or RPO up 26% and 19%, respectively. We also made significant progress toward digitizing AEC, converging design and make in manufacturing and converting non-compliant and legacy users. We signed a record number of new enterprise business agreements, or EBAs, in the fourth quarter. In fact, they were equal to the number we signed in the entirety of the previous year. That’s a testament both to our execution and growing partnership with our enterprise customers as we enable their digital transformations, demonstrated by enterprise BIM 360 usage nearly doubling year-over-year. While we made great strides this year, we intend to extend our leadership in the cloud and expand our presence in existing and adjacent industry verticals across the globe. Operator: Our first question comes from the line of Saket Kalia from Barclays. You may begin. Saket Kalia: Okay, great. Thanks, Andrew for taking my questions here and congrats on the new additions to the team. Andrew Anagnost: Thank you. Saket Kalia: Maybe just to start you touched on this a little bit in your prepared remarks, Andrew, but can you just talk a little bit about how you’re thinking about new business recovery this year and maybe just broad brush, what verticals or GEOs might be stronger than others? Andrew Anagnost: Yes. Thank you, Saket. I think that’s a really appropriate question to open up with. As you know, new business was down last year and that has a disproportionate impact on how we see revenue in Q1, but the way we look at it shaping up this year is Q1 is kind of the trough of the new business recovery. And we’re going to be accelerating our new business growth out through the year into the second half of the year. In fact, we really see a world where most of the new business that didn’t show up last year, kind of reemerges as we head through this year. So it’s important to see that business that disappeared last year didn’t disappear. It just got shifted out. In fact, you’re hearing a lot about the acceleration of digitization in multiple industries, and we’re seeing that in our space in spades as well. And I think if we look at particular sectors, it’s actually really going to be distributed across all the sectors and kind of similar ways. AEC is already investing really significantly ahead of the market in terms of their digitization efforts. You kind of saw early evidence of that with the EBA business we did. The record number EBAs we did in Q4 relative to previous years. In manufacturing, you kind of see the same accelerated interest in digitalization and new cloud-based workflows, especially surrounding what we’re seeing in fusion. The same goes in media entertainment. The media entertainment business, which was classically a laggard on some of these highly digital, highly cloud integrated workflows is moving to the cloud in a big way. Now, geographically kind of in a broad-brush, I kind of highlighted in the opening remarks that, we saw a broad recovery in Europe and Asia to pre-COVID levels of monthly active usage. And we saw a little bit of a lag in the U.S. and the UK. I think we’re going to see that kind of geographic fraternity new business in that cascade. It’s going to be strong in APAC. It’s going to get strong in Europe, and then it’s going to start to come back in the U.S. and the UK. Q1 will be the trough of this new business growth, and we’re going to accelerate right out of that into the rest of the year. Saket Kalia: Got it. That’s really helpful. Maybe for a follow-up, understanding that Innovyze hasn’t closed, it isn’t included in guidance. Can you just give us some broad brushes on maybe how big that revenue scale there is, and maybe just touch on whether there are any significant differences in the business model versus Autodesk? Andrew Anagnost: Yes. Differences in opportunities, Saket, so first off, let’s just kind of just level set on why we did Innovyze. I think we’ve been super clear that infrastructure is one of these really big growth opportunities for us long-term. Infrastructure projects take a long time to design and plan, and they last even longer after that. So an investment in infrastructure is an investment in the long-term health of Autodesk. And I think we just have to be super clear about that. Water was one of those areas where it would have taken us all a lot of time to catch up organically, whereas road and rail is an area we’ve been highlighting to you that we’ve been investing in organically with our portfolio and really making great strides there. When you look at the business at a high level, in terms of the differences and where the revenue is going to come from. So look, at a high level, Innovyze is going to be accretive to our revenue growth, roughly to a percentage point, as we head into this year that includes deferred revenue write-offs and the fact that we have a partial year in here, it’s probably going to be dilutive this year about a percentage point off of operating margin. But here’s the opportunity that I want to make sure you highlight. You actually poked out a little bit between the differences in our business model. Not only are we going to plug Innovyze into our sales engine, in terms of named accounts, channel sales and international expansion. We’re also going to apply our expertise on business model transformation to the Innovyze product portfolio. And I think that’s going to be an important transitional element of how we absorb Innovyze into the company. We’re good at this. We know how to do this, and we know how to navigate this. So what you’re going to see in FY 2023 is you’ll probably see a little bit of a depression of Innovyze’s revenue growth in isolation, because we’re going to be applying the business model transformation. And as you know, with the business model transformation, there’s downward pressure in revenue as a result, but acceleration of revenue as you head out onto the other side of the business model transformation. So if we look at FY 2023, it’s probably going to be neutral to the overall revenue growth of the company. It’s not going to touch the free cash flow number $2.4 billion is going to come out Innovyze or no Innovyze. And they’ll probably be a little bit more of a headwind operating margin, maybe between 1% and 2% as we go through the business model transformation, but a nice acceleration up to our double-digit growth standards as we head beyond FY 2023 to 2024, 2025 and 2026, which is kind of an extra bonus on top of what we’re going to be able to do, just to expand the core Innovyze water business, to capitalize on the increasing investment in infrastructure. So it’s a good question to talk about the differences in our business model, because there’s actually an opportunity there and a difference. Saket Kalia: Very helpful, Andrew. Thanks again and congrats on the new additions to the team. Operator: Our next question comes from line of Phil Winslow from Wells Fargo. You may begin. Phil Winslow: Great. I thank everyone for taking my question and then congrats on a strong close to the year. And once again, congratulations on the new hires in particular. Great to have Debbie back. Really want to focus on the mix side of Autodesk. How do you think about it in a reopening scenario and given the fact that we have a lot of backlog of projects, particularly in the construction and infrastructure world you’re heading into this year, what is the opportunity for Autodesk to potentially accelerate adoption of some of the main functions, BuildingConnected, PlanGrid to try to help the industry work through this backlog? Andrew Anagnost: Yes. So we actually started to see the early signs of that as we headed into Q4 as new business, starting to strengthen in our construction portfolio in particular. And we also saw it across the Fusion base, as well as people started to look at their manufacturing and the design to manufacturing operations. So we see a pretty significant opportunity here. Look in many ways, the pandemic gave us an opportunity to catch up and pull ahead a little bit here. Our portfolio is now best-in-class. Our development team did an incredible heavy lift and an amazing job unifying what was the best of PlanGrid, which with the best of what we had in BIM 360, we now have Autodesk Build on this foundation of Autodesk Docs. And there is no one that has a better office to trailer solution than we do. And I think if you go out there and you talk to customers and you talk to this space and they look at what we’ve done with Autodesk Build, you’re going to hear the same kind of feedback that we really built a great product, and that’s the product we’re going to be leading with on new business. It’s not that we won’t be leading on the acquired portfolio products as we continue to sell those, but we’re going to lead with Build, and we’re going to lead with Build in many places. And that’s going to give us a chance to not only drive a successful international expansion, but also continue to lap some of our competitors in the rest of the market, especially in places like the mid-market, but another one pieces of our secret sauce heading into the year, Phil, is the flexibility we offer on business models. We meet our customers wherever they are. And I think this is super important for you to pay attention to, we sell named user subscriptions. We sell site licenses. We sell project-based licensing when they want it. We sell consumption inside of EBAs, whatever they need for whatever project they’re pursuing. We have a model for them and a product for them. And I think that important convergence between the flexibility, which by the way, costs us complexity in the backend, but it’s worth it in terms of meeting the customers where they are. When you combine that with the products, we feel really, really optimistic about how we’re going to accelerate in this year and meet some of this demand. And our customers are looking for it. They want to digitize faster. They’re starting to increase their spending. And we think we’ve got the portfolio of products and the portfolio of purchasing options that makes it work. We’re not trying to force people into one kind of business model, and then maybe try to lock them in kind of places that they don’t want to be. So we feel pretty optimistic. Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer. Andrew Anagnost: No follow-up from Phil. So we didn’t get a follow-up here. Operator: Not at this time. Our next question comes from the line of Jay Vleeschhouwer from Griffin Securities. You may begin. Jay Vleeschhouwer: Thank you. Good evening. Andrew, the company has quite a lot on his plate, a very broad agenda. And the question is within the context of your three overarching strategic priorities, obviously making the numbers that you guided to now for fiscal 2022. Can you talk about some of the other critical programmatic executable that you are aiming for this year? For instance, in terms of a channel in terms of delivering on the platform, going live perhaps with PPU other critical technical milestones that you might care to talk about in terms of new products like Tandem and Spacemaker and so forth. And then secondly, on the last call, you noted that within your peer group, Autodesk is the largest R&D spender, which is the case, but could you talk in a little bit more detail about how you’re allocating R&D? Maybe talk about the priorities you’ve spoken of reinvesting in the AEC? And maybe talk about some of those critical investment priorities views in the R&D? Andrew Anagnost: All right. So there was – it’s usually a multi-party question from Jay. All right. So let’s talk about some of the programmatic pieces here. Now I don’t want to take any thunder away from this year’s AU, which is where we talk a lot about, as you probably noticed with last day, you’re going to see more of a product announcement focused AU, as we move forward. So I don’t want to take any thunder away from that. But if you look at programmatically where we’re going to be leaning into, platform enhancements that bring design and make and industries together and create commonality across many of the industries we serve are going to be a particular lever that we’re to be moving with. We just hired a new CTO with a lot of platform strategy chops that we’re going to be leveraging to integrate some deeper platform capabilities into the company. We’re also going to be looking programmatically at the named user transition program, as you know, that was kind of a bumpy program last year. The customers really didn’t appreciate us introducing that into a pandemic year, and they really want to understand what their options are with regards to flexible usage and occasional use moving forward. For so look for us to explore those kinds of capabilities as we’ve extended out, what the deadline was in that program, which still makes that program being executed faster than maintenance subscription, but probably more on a timeline that fits with what our customers can absorb. So you’ll see us kind of look at those flexible options and explore some of those things with our customers. Now, if you look specifically at how we’re allocating investment, I mean – I think you saw what we did around the A in AEC. We acquired Spacemaker. We’re integrating that team, building up capabilities around that team, particularly around integrating machine learning and cloud-based platforms into the design process in architecture and engineering. So that investment is clear, we’ve highlighted it. You’ve just seen how we’re investing in infrastructure and civil infrastructure. We’ve already talked organically about road and rail. And now we’ve also talked about water and all of this kind of builds on top of what we’re doing with Construction Cloud. I haven’t talked a lot about what we’re going to be doing with manufacturing, but here’s what I can tell you. We’re very interested in the cloud transformation in manufacturing, and I think you’ll see us lean deeply into the cloud transformation around manufacturing more. We’ve invested pretty heavily there. Our investment is large in that whole portfolio, particularly in the Fusion portfolio. I think you’ll continue to see us to invest to that area. And as we head towards AU, you’ll hear exciting things about Fusion. You’ll hear exciting things about Tandem. You’ll hear exciting things about the platform for the company. And you’ll hear exciting things about how the AEC portfolio is starting to come together in a similar way that we brought together some of the construction portfolio acquisitions that we did previously. So look for us to kind of play across all those fields. Now, in terms of the breadth of what we’re doing, I think I might’ve talked about this last time. We reverticalized the company just recently in October. So now I have someone that’s responsible for the AEC execution. Again, that’s Amy Bunszel, Scott Reese working on the execution and product design and manufacturing, and Diana Colella working in the media and entertainment space, and they are working closely with me and the rest of the team to execute on these vertical priorities while we’ve also elevated platform up to a executive staff level, reporting directly to me, which will allow us to synergize the platform efforts more tightly with those things. So we’re doing this from an operational perspective, as well as from a strategic investment perspective. Jay Vleeschhouwer: Okay. Thank you, Andrew. Andrew Anagnost: You’re welcome. Operator: And our next question comes from the line of Gal Munda from Berenberg Capital. You may begin. Gal Munda: Hey, thank you for taking my questions. So the first one, I was just like to ask you, Andrew, when you kind of look at how the year played out in terms of the multi-years there or network licenses, versus what you expected. Is it fair to say that you’re kind of ride bang in the middle to that two to one thing that you expected and you’ve just extended the program to 2023. Does that mean that you’re kind of very comfortable with the way that this program is kind of converting and you think that it’s going to remain at that level where it’s not a significant headwind to the model? Andrew Anagnost: Yes. So look, our original statements about this being neutral to the model, continue to hold. So there’s no change in that expectation. I think what you saw last year, and I think this is a natural thing, like there’s two sides of the bell curve, right? There is the size of the bell curve for which two for one is like, hey, that’s a no brainer for me. I’m going to take the two for one. And there’s a size of the bell curve for which two for one requires some more thought by the customer. More thought about – okay, wait a second. My usage is greater than two for one, Autodesk, what are you going to do to allow me to be flex a little bit more an EBA is too big for me. So what you saw early on is a lot of those people on the left side of the bell curve, the 50% of people that were up for renewal last year that said, hey, this is good for me. They moved quite rapidly through that, right? The extension is for the people that require more thought about how this is going to impact their business and how they’re going to adapt if their usage is greater than the two for one that the program had. So that’s one of the reasons why we’re working on the extension also to ensure that we have the new flexible models out there for them to explore. So there’s no change in our expectations, which regards to the impact on our business. It’s going to be over in the whole period of the program neutral in terms of impact to our business. Positive long-term in terms of experience for the customers. Gal Munda: Yes. Absolutely. And then just the second as this follow-up. You mentioned that for this year, you, again, expecting kind of mid-20s long-term deferred revenue in terms of the, you said, no material contribution to free cash flow. When we look into more towards FY 2023 and then maybe even beyond that, we’re hearing this, multi-year licenses is still been very, very strong even during the pandemic. So what would be the normal rate that you kind of think about if you think maybe more longer term, not just next year and maybe the year after? Andrew Anagnost: Yes. So Simon, remind me what we’re reverting. So one of the things we’re doing, and I want to make sure we’re super clear on this with regards to multi-year. With multi-year our expectations that are revert solely back to the mean here. All right and not try to exceed what we’ve done historically, okay? And I just want to make sure that we understand that and we can get ourselves grounded in that simple fact. We’re reverting back to the mean behavior and yes, as we ended last fiscal year, right, we saw quite an interesting pickup in multi-year, frankly, more than we expected, all right, given that we were still in the pandemic year, but if we look at where we want to be, it’s just a reversion back to the mean. And remember that the multi-year business is attractive to both our channel partners and our customers, because our channel partners liked to collect the cash up front. And our customers like to lock in the price protection for multiple years. And if you recall, reversion to the mean historically for our maintenance business was about 30% of the business, roughly speaking. We want to stay right within that domain and we will probably stay within that domain for the foreseeable future. And that was adjusted peak, not the mean, okay, a piece to 30%, not in the middle. The mean was probably somewhere in the mid-20’s. Gal Munda: Got you. Thank you, Andrew. Operator: Our next question will come from the line of Adam Borg from Stifel. You may begin. Adam Borg: Great. Thanks for taking the question and also welcoming the new folks coming in. Maybe just a question on the net revenue retention rate. Obviously, the pandemic and speed of recovery will be the key input in the near-term. I was just curious, Andrew, if there’s any kind of initiatives you’re working on internally that can help drive net retention revenue rates back to the historical range. Thanks so much. Andrew Anagnost: Yes. So we’re hitting the ranges that we’ve set for net revenue retention. And frankly, obviously there’s two things that drive net revenue retention, renewal rates and AOV renewal, and the ability to expand into accounts, right? And so we’re working both of those sides in terms of increasing renewal rates and increasing our ability to expand in accounts with the make solutions. So when we look at net revenue retention, remember, one of the things that we saw and I think we highlighted this a lot over the last year was how strong the renewal rates lasted throughout the – through the last year and how we continued to move forward. So we actually overperformed based on our expectations on renewal rates of the business. We continue to see – we continue to expect that to accelerate. But more importantly, the net revenue retention is going to be driven by more and more people incorporating our digital portfolios, Construction Cloud, Fusion, other types of products like that and also moving to BIM in the AEC space. So look for a lot of the increases in net revenue retention to be programmatically driven by the move to BIM, the move to digitize in the cloud – in Construction Cloud and the move to transform their manufacturing processes with Fusion 360 and other solutions like that. Adam Borg: Great. Thanks again. Operator: And our next question will come from the line of Sterling Auty from JPMorgan. You may begin. Sterling Auty: Yes. Thanks. Hi, guys. Just one question from my side. In the context of the improving economy, I’m wondering what if anything you contemplated in that improvement in the business coming from the possibility of further stimulus spending from the government and in particular Andrew Anagnost: We do not factor that in, okay. Governments move slowly, the money trickles down slowly. So we have not factored any of that into our plans and into our guides. That said, we do expect it to be an investment. You probably have heard that the American Society of Civil Engineers in the U.S. rated U.S. Infrastructure a D+. Other countries aren’t doing particularly well either. This is an area for investment and focus. And we expect to see some of that investment focus, but we haven’t factored this in. Sterling Auty: Thank you. Operator: Our next question will come from line of Joe Vruwink from Baird. You may begin. Joe Vruwink: Great. Hi, everyone. One modeling question first and then one on the business. Just when looking at the first quarter guide, I think the revenue variance in terms of variance to consensus estimates that seems explained by the couple 100 basis points you talked about. But I’m wondering in terms of the EPS variance as a bit wider. Are there some discrete investments that take place in 1Q? Is this a function of the extra day thrown into the mix? Or I guess, the question is how do you see margins progressing throughout the year and as 1Q kind of different than just the normal cadence? Andrew Anagnost: Yes. So this is a really important question. So let’s talk about Q1 and the shape of the curve and what actually drives revenue in Q1. So I think I said earlier, Q1 is actually at the trough of where we expect things to be. We’re going to accelerate quite rapidly out of Q1. But what actually drives the revenue guiding Q1? The most important thing is the revenue recognition. So let’s look at last year. Last year, we did not grow a new business to the degree, we expected to. In fact, we saw declines year-over-year in our new business. The impact of those declines in new business bookings in the previous year have a disproportionately large effect on Q1, but they worked themselves out relatively quickly as you move into Q2, Q3, Q4 and beyond. So we absolutely do have a somewhat more backend loaded year than we would in a classic Autodesk year, but not extremely disagreed simply because of the hole that was created. And I think I said earlier, the new business that we lost in last year, it didn’t disappear. It’s coming back and it’s coming back with a vengeance as we head into the next year. But there’s a couple of other little factors that affect Q1 disproportionally. And I think it’s really important that we all get grounded on some of these things. So the first one is, we have a set of products that because they are not yet cloud enabled to a certain degree are recognized upfront in the revenue – in the accounting rules. They have to be. We have been working hard to ensure that all of those products are cloud enabled and that will actually force them to be recognized ratably. One of the products that is moving from upfront recognition to ratable recognition is the Vault product family. And that Vault product family was providing quite a bit of upfront revenue recognition previously. And now, as we enter Q1, it’s all going to be recognized, ratably because Vault now has a mobile client, it now has other cloud enabled features in it. So that was all of a sudden a headwind to revenue recognition in Q1, but it works itself out as the year progresses, as the relatability progresses and the buildup progresses. And this is just the way a subscription business model works. So there’s some unusual sort of one-time headwinds to Q1 that unwind themselves fairly quickly. And Q1 is the trough and we will accelerate out of there, but it’s definitely related to the buildup of recognized revenue as we progress. So that – I hope that helps you understand a little bit more how Q1 works. Yes, there are some additional little details like Q1 is one day shorter this year, year-over-year. So it’s actually one less day of revenue in the quarter and it’s three days shorter than quarter-over-quarter. But those other things I talked about are much more important for understanding the Q1 guide and how it unwind as the year progresses. Make sense. Joe Vruwink: It does. It does. Thank you. And if I can squeeze in one more. Just as you engage with your customers and they come back and you’re booking new business. But as they talked to you about the composition of what they see going forward and their view on how a non-res construction cycle might develop. What are you hearing in terms of similarities? The cycle is going to be like, out of 2008, 2009, out of 2001, 2002 or what are some of the differences that you’re hearing? And how did those similarities or differences impact Autodesk just given how your product portfolio has changed? Andrew Anagnost: Yes. So remember, first off that we are distributed across almost all facets of the industry, and it’s important to realize that when one wobbles, another one pops up. And we’re absolutely seeing that pattern. So for instance, you see in commercial real estate development, you see a slowing of projects. You actually do see a rebooting of project that had been put on hold by the pandemic, but you see a slowing of new projects. But you see other new projects coming in the pipeline in terms of urban multi-family housing, suburban multi-family housing, other types of commercial real estate outside of dense urban areas. So we’re hearing a lot from customers about a shift in where their portfolios are moving to. One thing we are getting consistently though, is an ongoing focus on adopting certain aspects of our cloud portfolio, particularly, what we do with Autodesk Build collaborations. The collaboration tools for Revit models. We’re seeing a lot of increased adoption in that, we saw a lot of strength last year. We’re seeing some of that strength heading in. I think that’s going to be an important part of our portfolio moving forward, because not only does it allow for a seamless remote work, but it also allows for better downstream integration to the rest of the build process. So we’re seeing a lot of those tools being adopted, and we’re also seeing a lot more adoption of some of the cloud-based tools that we’re seeing in manufacturing. So the cloud is definitely front and center in terms of some of the growth areas in our portfolio, but do not underestimate BIM and the role of Revit in the digitization of AEC, it will continue to be a strong driver in the new world order, but it’s uneven. It cuts very across geographies, across segments. You definitely see differences in terms of where people are going to seeing things booting up and where they see things slowing down. But like every cycle we’ve ever seen, the money just shifts to somewhere else. Joe Vruwink: Thank you. Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Matt Hedberg from RBC Capital Markets. You may begin. Matt Hedberg: Hi, guys, thanks for taking my questions, and that was really good color on Q1. I think that makes a ton of sense. And also my congrats to Debbie, it’s really good to see you back at Autodesk. I guess, Andrew now that we’re sort of unwinding uncertainty, I think that’s a term you’ve used before. When we think of the trajectory to 2023, I mean, I just would kind of like to get me to some high level thoughts there. And I guess even more so, beyond 2023, what’s the right way to think about that as we enter this new fiscal year. Andrew Anagnost: Yes. So thank you for this question, right. And it’s an important question. So first off, I want to make sure that I just reiterate something I’ve said many times before. We model our business with super high fidelity, okay. And within those models, we never put forward our best case, right. We always had a buffer in there at some degree, buffers are great for like pandemic years. You love it when you have a buffer. Now, of course, as you get closer to events like FY2023 and things associated with that. The buffer gets smaller, but the accuracy of your model also gets better as well? So we have super – we have a lot of confidence in the buildup to FY2023, the $2.4 billion in free cash flow, the organic metrics surrounding our business and we also have a lot of confidence in the double-digit growth as we had beyond fiscal 2023. Fiscal 2023, isn’t some event, it’s just another milepost like fiscal 2020 was fiscal 2023 is. It’s another milepost on a journey, but there is ongoing growth in the double digit range out beyond fiscal 2023. Now I think one of the things people anchor on right now is what about this buildup from 2022 to 2023? One of the things I want to remind you is about the nature of how momentum is going to be exiting 2022. Remember, we’re going to be slightly more backend loaded in terms of the accumulation of revenue in new business heading into fiscal 2023, not dramatically backend loaded, but more backend loaded than we were traditionally be. We’re going to exit 2023 with quite a bit more momentum than the full year targets would indicate, all right, relatively speaking in terms of those outcomes. So we feel pretty confident with the momentum we’ll exit FY2023 with, and that we have the book of business from the renewal base, from the continuing digitization of AEC, from the continuing convergence of design and make and manufacturing, and to the conversion of non-compliant users to hit the numbers that we have in FY2023 and beyond. And we were confident in our models, we’re confident in the margin of error. We’re confident in the levers we can pull if we had to pull any. So we see line of sight to some of the organic goals that we’ve been talking about, and we continue to be confident even with what seems to be a big buildup from 2022 to 2023, you just have to pay attention to the momentum we have as we exit the full year 2022 into 2023. Matt Hedberg: Super helpful, very clear. Thanks, Andrew. Andrew Anagnost: No different than that 2019 to 2020 discussion that we had. I think like yesterday, but it was three years ago. Matt Hedberg: It does. Thank you. Operator: Our next question will come from the line of Keith Weiss from Morgan Stanley. You may begin. Keith Weiss: questions, I wanted to dig into the recovery. So our survey work shows expectations are getting a little bit pushed out from the kind of first half of 2022 to the next quarter end. We’ve heard from you and your peers on a slow recovery. So kind of what are you hearing from customers and what do they need to see in order to pick up the pace of recovery? And also where are the areas that you see there could be some risks that it could get further delayed. Thank you. Andrew Anagnost: Yes. So first off, our customers have to invest ahead of their project load in order to be successful. Remember our tools show up not only in the execution phase and the make phase, but also very early in the early conceptual design phases. And one of the big areas of strength that we saw in Q4 was that large increase in enterprise business agreements. We see the record number of EBAs we saw is kind of an emblematic of customers investing in future digitalization capacity. So we expect to see that regardless of the situation in the markets right now. But our view continues to be Q1 the trough, the acceleration starts to come out of Q1, as we head out of the spring and into the summer. Right now there’s lots of uncertainty and you hear lots of buzz around variants and vaccine distributions. But I think all of us are smart enough to know that just like when we have these discussions about testing infrastructure and testing rollout and testing capacity, all these things work themselves out over a multi-month period in terms of distribution of vaccines, distribution of assignment of capacity and all the things associated with that. Now, if all of that stuff starts to crumble and fumble, of course, you end up in a new situation, but that is highly unlikely in this situation. And there’s much more alignment on trying to get the right things done. And that’s what we’re hearing from our customers more and more is they’re trying to invest ahead of the growth they see coming forward. So we’re pretty bullish as we head into the second half of the year and we’re pretty optimistic as we head into the summer. There’s always something that can derail this, a wobble in the vaccine distribution or something associated with that or some kind of rise of political uncertainty. But you know what, we can’t predict those things. And we don’t see those things. And what we see mostly are tailwinds right now, as we head out of Q1 and into Q2 and beyond. Keith Weiss: Great. That’s super helpful. And then just to sneak one more in, your comments on the areas investment were certainly helpful. But just taking a step back, the Innovyze deal was one of the largest acquisitions to date. I believe it was above PlanGrid. So how should we just think about the kind of higher level framework for investing organically in R&D versus kind of the acquisitions as a source of innovation? Thank you. Andrew Anagnost: Yes. So we tend to invest organically in innovations that either we’ve been invested – that we’ve been working on for a period of time, that it represents net new business opportunities that we will acquire to net new business opportunities where there’s like, no mature market yet. But we will tend to acquire in areas where we’re seeing long-term opportunities or opportunities for enhanced digitization or enhanced cloud capability in verticals where we might not have established vertical – businesses or sub verticals where we might not have established businesses. But make no bones about it. Our organic investment is very much driven on this convergence of design and make in both AEC and manufacturing. And on this convergence of manufacturing and construction across our industries, we’ve got a lot of organic focus and the innovation in those areas. We will acquire inorganically for innovation in certain cloud-based areas, but more likely, we’ll acquire for vertical specialization in areas where established businesses have created a presence. Keith Weiss: Great. Thank you so much. Operator: Thank you. Andrew Anagnost: And I think Innovyze is indicative to that. Operator: Unfortunately, that’s all the time we have for questions today. I’d like to turn the call back over to the speakers for any closing remarks. Simon Mays-Smith: Thank you everyone for joining us. I know it’s a busy night for many of you. Look forward to catching up with you next quarter’s results. If you have any questions in the meantime, please contact us, simon.mays-smith@autodesk.com, look forward to chatting soon. Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.ADSK Ratings Summary
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Autodesk Stock Gains 7% on Q4 Beat
Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) shares soared over 7% in pre-market today following the announcement of its Q4 results, which surpassed analyst expectations. The company also provided guidance indicating double-digit revenue growth for fiscal year 2025.
In the fourth quarter, Autodesk reported EPS of $2.09, exceeding the consensus of $1.95. The company's revenue for the quarter was $1.47 billion, surpassing the expected $1.43 billion.
For the upcoming quarter, Autodesk expects EPS to range from $1.73 to $1.78, compared to the analyst predictions of $1.78. The company forecasts revenue to be between $1.385 billion and $1.4 billion for the quarter, compared to the Street estimate of $1.389 billion.
For the entire fiscal year, the company projects EPS to be between $7.89 and $8.11, compared to the Street estimate of $8.11. The company's revenue is expected to range from $5.99 billion to $6.09 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $5.978 billion.
Autodesk Shares Gain 2% Following Q2 Earnings Report
Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) witnessed a rise of over 3% in its share price intra-day today subsequent to the announcement of its Q2 results.
The company's earnings per share (EPS) amounted to $1.91, surpassing the Street estimate of $1.73. Revenue demonstrated a year-over-year growth of 9%, reaching $1.35 billion, which exceeded the anticipated consensus of $1.32 billion.
However, billings experienced an 8% decline, totaling $1.095 billion. Current remaining performance obligations reached $3.5 billion, indicating a substantial year-over-year growth of 12%.
For the third quarter of 2024, Autodesk anticipates that EPS will fall within the range of $1.97 to $2.03, which compares favorably to the Street estimate of $1.92. Additionally, the company foresees revenue in the range of $1.38 billion to $1.395 billion, compared to the Street estimate of $1.38 billion.
Turning to the entire fiscal year, Autodesk expects EPS to range from $7.30 to $7.49, exceeding the Street estimate of $7.28. Furthermore, the company projects its revenue for the full year to be between $5.405 billion and $5.455 billion, compared to the Street estimate of $5.41 billion.
Autodesk Reports In Line Q1 Earnings, Provides Outlook
Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) delivered its Q1 earnings results on Thursday, with EPS coming in at $1.55, and revenue at $1.27 billion, both in line with the Street estimates.
The company delivered higher billings relative to Street's estimate ($1.17 billion vs. Street’s $1.05 billion) and Free Cash Flow ($714 million vs. Street’s $437 million). Billings benefited from some last-minute multi-year activity and early renewals. Free Cash Flow also saw a boost from the timing of tax payments and collections from Q4 billings.
Management anticipates Q2/24 EPS to be in the range of $1.70-$1.74, compared to the Street estimate of $1.78, and revenue in the range of $1.315-$1.325 billion, compared to the Street’s $1.33 billion.
For the full year, management anticipates EPS to be in the range of $7.07-$7.41, compared to the Street estimate of $7.23, and revenue in the range of $5.355-$5.455 billion, compared to the Street’s $5.41 billion.
Autodesk’s Upcoming Q1 Earnings Preview
RBC Capital analysts provided their outlook on Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) ahead of the upcoming Q1/24 earnings results, which are expected to be reported on May 25.
Amidst uneven macros, the analysts look for essentially in-line results showing stabilization in estimates following a better quarter of execution while the fiscal 2024 guide is likely maintained. While the double-digit CAGR target for 2026 free cash flow no longer seems likely, the analysts like the increased clarity in the long-term vision as they still find value in a ratable revenue and free cash flow growth post the trough.
The analysts maintained their Outperform rating and $250 price target on the company as they think Autodesk could become a good large-cap compounder as estimates stabilize and work higher.
Autodesk’s Upcoming Q1 Earnings Preview
RBC Capital analysts provided their outlook on Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) ahead of the upcoming Q1/24 earnings results, which are expected to be reported on May 25.
Amidst uneven macros, the analysts look for essentially in-line results showing stabilization in estimates following a better quarter of execution while the fiscal 2024 guide is likely maintained. While the double-digit CAGR target for 2026 free cash flow no longer seems likely, the analysts like the increased clarity in the long-term vision as they still find value in a ratable revenue and free cash flow growth post the trough.
The analysts maintained their Outperform rating and $250 price target on the company as they think Autodesk could become a good large-cap compounder as estimates stabilize and work higher.
Autodesk’s Price Target Cut at Stifel After Partner Checks
Stifel analysts lowered their estimates and the price target on Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) to $240.00 from $245.00 while reiterating their Buy rating.
After speaking with four Autodesk platinum-level channel partners, the analysts noted that results were disappointing, with missed quarterly expectations and expressed caution for the year due to a softening macro backdrop and demand pull-forward. The uncertain macro is seen as the cause, not competition. Despite this, Autodesk Construction Cloud remains strong.
While noting that uncertain macro may have a negative near-term impact on the results, the analysts continue to believe the company will sustain double-digit growth and expand margins and cash flow.
Autodesk’s 2023 Investor Day Takeaways
Deutsche Bank analysts provided their key takeaways from Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) 2023 Investor Day, noting they feel more confident about the company's ability to sustain 10-15% revenue growth with 30- 35% free cash flow margins over the medium-to-long-term.
In addition to secular market trends which remain in their favor, emphasis on the pace of internal innovation at Autodesk should enable the company to maintain and perhaps extends its competitive positioning as they disrupt the industry along with itself.
The focal point around Autodesk Platform Services and Industry Clouds (Forma, Fusion, Flow) highlights management's understanding of where the future is going, though the analysts note the migration from a file-based workflow to data/model-based workflows will likely play out over the next decade with limited near-term financial benefit while requiring ongoing investment.
