Autodesk Reports Q2 Beat & Provides Guidance, Shares Up 2%

Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) shares soared over 7% in pre-market today following the announcement of its Q4 results, which surpassed analyst expectations. The company also provided guidance indicating double-digit revenue growth for fiscal year 2025.

In the fourth quarter, Autodesk reported EPS of $2.09, exceeding the consensus of $1.95. The company's revenue for the quarter was $1.47 billion, surpassing the expected $1.43 billion.

For the upcoming quarter, Autodesk expects EPS to range from $1.73 to $1.78, compared to the analyst predictions of $1.78. The company forecasts revenue to be between $1.385 billion and $1.4 billion for the quarter, compared to the Street estimate of $1.389 billion.

For the entire fiscal year, the company projects EPS to be between $7.89 and $8.11, compared to the Street estimate of $8.11. The company's revenue is expected to range from $5.99 billion to $6.09 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $5.978 billion.

Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) witnessed a rise of over 3% in its share price intra-day today subsequent to the announcement of its Q2 results.

The company's earnings per share (EPS) amounted to $1.91, surpassing the Street estimate of $1.73. Revenue demonstrated a year-over-year growth of 9%, reaching $1.35 billion, which exceeded the anticipated consensus of $1.32 billion.

However, billings experienced an 8% decline, totaling $1.095 billion. Current remaining performance obligations reached $3.5 billion, indicating a substantial year-over-year growth of 12%.

For the third quarter of 2024, Autodesk anticipates that EPS will fall within the range of $1.97 to $2.03, which compares favorably to the Street estimate of $1.92. Additionally, the company foresees revenue in the range of $1.38 billion to $1.395 billion, compared to the Street estimate of $1.38 billion.

Turning to the entire fiscal year, Autodesk expects EPS to range from $7.30 to $7.49, exceeding the Street estimate of $7.28. Furthermore, the company projects its revenue for the full year to be between $5.405 billion and $5.455 billion, compared to the Street estimate of $5.41 billion.

Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) delivered its Q1 earnings results on Thursday, with EPS coming in at $1.55, and revenue at $1.27 billion, both in line with the Street estimates.

The company delivered higher billings relative to Street's estimate ($1.17 billion vs. Street’s $1.05 billion) and Free Cash Flow ($714 million vs. Street’s $437 million). Billings benefited from some last-minute multi-year activity and early renewals. Free Cash Flow also saw a boost from the timing of tax payments and collections from Q4 billings.

Management anticipates Q2/24 EPS to be in the range of $1.70-$1.74, compared to the Street estimate of $1.78, and revenue in the range of $1.315-$1.325 billion, compared to the Street’s $1.33 billion.

For the full year, management anticipates EPS to be in the range of $7.07-$7.41, compared to the Street estimate of $7.23, and revenue in the range of $5.355-$5.455 billion, compared to the Street’s $5.41 billion.

RBC Capital analysts provided their outlook on Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) ahead of the upcoming Q1/24 earnings results, which are expected to be reported on May 25.

Amidst uneven macros, the analysts look for essentially in-line results showing stabilization in estimates following a better quarter of execution while the fiscal 2024 guide is likely maintained. While the double-digit CAGR target for 2026 free cash flow no longer seems likely, the analysts like the increased clarity in the long-term vision as they still find value in a ratable revenue and free cash flow growth post the trough.

The analysts maintained their Outperform rating and $250 price target on the company as they think Autodesk could become a good large-cap compounder as estimates stabilize and work higher.

RBC Capital analysts provided their outlook on Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) ahead of the upcoming Q1/24 earnings results, which are expected to be reported on May 25.

Amidst uneven macros, the analysts look for essentially in-line results showing stabilization in estimates following a better quarter of execution while the fiscal 2024 guide is likely maintained. While the double-digit CAGR target for 2026 free cash flow no longer seems likely, the analysts like the increased clarity in the long-term vision as they still find value in a ratable revenue and free cash flow growth post the trough.

The analysts maintained their Outperform rating and $250 price target on the company as they think Autodesk could become a good large-cap compounder as estimates stabilize and work higher.

Stifel analysts lowered their estimates and the price target on Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) to $240.00 from $245.00 while reiterating their Buy rating.

After speaking with four Autodesk platinum-level channel partners, the analysts noted that results were disappointing, with missed quarterly expectations and expressed caution for the year due to a softening macro backdrop and demand pull-forward. The uncertain macro is seen as the cause, not competition. Despite this, Autodesk Construction Cloud remains strong.

While noting that uncertain macro may have a negative near-term impact on the results, the analysts continue to believe the company will sustain double-digit growth and expand margins and cash flow.

Deutsche Bank analysts provided their key takeaways from Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) 2023 Investor Day, noting they feel more confident about the company's ability to sustain 10-15% revenue growth with 30- 35% free cash flow margins over the medium-to-long-term.

In addition to secular market trends which remain in their favor, emphasis on the pace of internal innovation at Autodesk should enable the company to maintain and perhaps extends its competitive positioning as they disrupt the industry along with itself.

The focal point around Autodesk Platform Services and Industry Clouds (Forma, Fusion, Flow) highlights management's understanding of where the future is going, though the analysts note the migration from a file-based workflow to data/model-based workflows will likely play out over the next decade with limited near-term financial benefit while requiring ongoing investment.