Weekly Jobless Claims for February 5 - A Brief Overview

Weekly Jobless Claims for February 5 - A Brief Overview

By Yash

The weekly jobless claims came in lower in the latest data released by the Labor Department. This shows that there has been a downward trend in the weekly jobless claims because the pressures on the labor market due to the Omicron variant have started to decline. The initial weekly jobless claims for the period ended February 5 were 223,000. The continuing claims for the week ended January 29 were 1.621 million. The jobs report also showed that the unemployment rate had increased a little to four percent. This was driven by the improved conditions in the labor force's participation, which also increased by sixty percent. This represented the highest mark since March a couple of years ago. The statistic shows that more citizens are now re-entering the workforce. But many people are still preferring to remain on the sidelines because of the continuing coronavirus cases in the country.


The filings for unemployment aid have decreased constantly in recent times, following a temporary increase in the middle of the previous month to a mark that was the highest since October. The growth in the number of US workers applying for unemployment aid was credited to the disruptions caused in the labor market due to the latest coronavirus variant. This had led the workforces to be adjusted after the seasonal hiring growth that happened at the end of the last year. The chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, Ian Shepherdson, had predicted in the previous week that the claims for this week would not see much changes due to a few seasonal quirks. He predicted that the new cyclical lows would be in the middle of next month. This would be about five weeks later than when it would have happened if the Omicron variant had not hit the nation so suddenly and abruptly.


The Weekly Jobless Claims Had Reached a New Low 


Near the end of the previous year before the Omicron variant disrupted the labor market's recovery, the weekly jobless claims had reached a low of nearly fifty years. This is because employers attempted to retain their workforce amidst the ongoing labor shortages. Despite going higher in the previous month, the weekly jobless claims had stayed a lot below the high achieved during the pandemic's peak and well away from the same point in the previous year when the figures were nearly at a million. The impact of the Omicron variant on the workforce of the nation has shown some signs of easing now. The monthly jobs report was also released by the Labor Department. It is the main analysis of the employment conditions in the nation. In a good surprise from what the experts had predicted, it showed that the payrolls in the country had recorded a great increase in the previous month.


This was despite many citizens calling in sick to their respective workplaces as the coronavirus spread swiftly at the beginning of this year. The Labor Department said that the non-farm payrolls have also increased significantly during the month. This is a big upturn from the figure forecasted by experts in some surveys. Nick Bunker, Indeed economic research director, said, "[The report] suggested that while Omicron had a clear impact on day-to-day life in the United States, the labor market impact was less severe than expected. As we have seen in the past, the economic fallout from each successive wave of the pandemic has been smaller and smaller."


Experts at Goldman Sachs pointed to more than one million missing workers from the workforce right now. They said, "While total labor demand—employment plus vacancies—is roughly in line with its pre-pandemic trend, labor supply remains substantially depressed. Workers give three main reasons: they have COVID-related concerns, a financial cushion, or their lifestyle has changed. These explanations suggest that some people are likely to come back if the virus spread decreases or antiviral pills reduce health risks. Others are likely to come back once they exhaust their savings, especially now that most special pandemic fiscal transfer payments have expired. In support of this expectation, most prime-age workers who left the labor force say they intend to re-enter."


Employers Have Been Eager to Hire


The Omicron variant has been spreading rapidly in the country throughout the past few months. Still, employers in the nation have been quite eager to hire more people. This shows that the economy of the country is still robust. The increase in coronavirus infections in the past winter created a small hurdle in the nation's robust economic recovery from the recession caused by the pandemic. But now, employers are quite confident about the long-term growth prospects of the nation's economy. When the cases had started increasing last month because of the coronavirus infections, millions of employees had called in sick, and many organizations had shut down their businesses temporarily because of the widespread outbreak.


The weekly jobless claims had temporarily increased in the middle of the previous month. Still, the estimates by the private sector showed that the job openings had begun to get better at the end of that month itself. The employers in the nation kept hiring at a good speed in the previous month while battling the Omicron variant, the Labor Department said. Bank of America Securities expert Alexander Lin said, "For the Fed, this report provides another wake-up call. Inflation is here, and it continues to make its presence known everywhere. We believe that today's print endorses the Fed to move more quickly, and the market will likely encourage the Fed to hike 50 basis points at the next meeting."


Consumer Prices See a Big Jump


The Federal Government has also said that consumer prices have increased in the past year. This was the biggest increase in the past forty years. Huge spending by the Federal Government and the rollout of the vaccine gave a jolt of growth to the economy as the employers added more than six million jobs in the previous year. The nation's economy also saw an expansion that was the fastest in the past forty years. The country's economy has overheated, which has led to high inflation. Such inflation levels have not been experienced by the economy for a long time. This led the Federal Reserve to ease the support it was giving the economy. The high inflation has overshot the target of two percent set by the Federal Reserve. This could jeopardize the economic agenda of the current administration.


President Biden has also mentioned the tough times that the families of the nations are facing. But he has said that there have also been signals that the country will successfully pass this challenge. He also talked about the unchanged marking in the prices of motor vehicles. These prices are one of the main factors which are increasing inflation. J.P. Morgan Asset Management Chief Global Strategist David Kelly said, "In this environment, an over-reactive Fed that starts tightening too much and too fast might mean that we end the year with much slower growth to accompany lower inflation." Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House said, "As the most immediate price distortions brought on by the pandemic and initial policy response unwind, wage pressures continue to build and point to a more persistent source of inflation."



The economy of the nation is fighting with high inflation. This has been caused by a shift in consumers' spending preferences from services to goods during the pandemic. Spending has been boosted due to the trillions of dollars spent to provide relief during the pandemic. This was against the constraints in the capacity as the pandemic sidelined the workers required to produce and supply goods to the users. The Federal Reserve has said that it will soon start a series of interest-rate hikes. It will look to reserve the policies of the pandemic era that have led to growth, increased hiring, and increased inflation.