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Prediction Markets

What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 index on December 31, 2027?

Above 7000
35% +7%
Between 6000 - 7000
45% -3%
Below 6000
20% -4%

32.7M volume

Continued tech innovation and global economic recovery could propel corporate earnings. However, persistent inflation or higher-for-longer rates pose significant downside risks to market growth and valuations.

What will be the upper bound of the Federal Funds Rate target range after the final FOMC meeting of 2026?

Above 4.50%
25% +5%
Between 3.00% - 4.50%
50% -2%
Below 3.00%
25% -3%

21.4M volume

The Fed's path hinges on inflation deceleration and labor market cooling. Persistent wage growth or a reacceleration of inflation could force rates higher. A sharper slowdown might lead to aggressive cuts.

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Market News

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Global economy to slow less than expected in 2026 as AI boom offsets war hit: IMF
Global economy to slow less than expected in 2026 as AI boom offsets war hit: IMF Growth is seen slowing to 3.1% this year from 3.5%, but better than IMF's 3% July estimate, aided by AI investment and fiscal support. Inflation is expected to rise to 4.7% this year as energy costs stay elevated, and then ease to 4.1% in 2027. via CNBC
Oct 12
‘Does not even touch the sides': former IEA exec on Trump's diesel deal
‘Does not even touch the sides': former IEA exec on Trump's diesel deal Neil Atkinson, the former head of the IEA's oil industry and markets division, strikes a sceptical note on the true impact of President Trump's deal with Russia to supply more than 4 million tons of diesel to the global market. His comments come as Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivers a live address with a direct message to Americans. via CNBC International TV
Oct 12
Crude slips as Trump announces Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire
Crude slips as Trump announces Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire Crude prices slip as President Trump claims an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine days after announcing a controversial diesel deal with Moscow. The U.S. President has also said he's considering joining Saudi Arabia in its fight against the Iran-backed Houthis following strikes on Riyadh's main airport which killed 13 people. via CNBC International TV
Oct 12
Nikkei Falls 2.0% Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Nikkei Falls 2.0% Amid Geopolitical Tensions The Nikkei Stock Average fell 2.0% to 67644.31 amid geopolitical tensions, which typically undermine appetite for risk assets. via WSJ
Oct 12
Asian Currencies Consolidate, But May be Weighed by Safe-Haven Demand for Greenback
Asian Currencies Consolidate, But May be Weighed by Safe-Haven Demand for Greenback Asian currencies consolidated against the dollar, but may be weighed by safe-haven demand for the greenback. via WSJ
Oct 12
Fed "Fighting Wrong Fight?" How Global Picture Complicates Interest Rate Outlook
Fed "Fighting Wrong Fight?" How Global Picture Complicates Interest Rate Outlook As the Fed readies to decide on the direction of interest rates at the end of October, William Lee tells U.S. investors to look abroad. He explains how countries like France and other European giants "lost" the central banking narrative and discusses ways it applied to the U.S. William adds that the Fed is "fighting the wrong fight" in its efforts to curb inflation. via Schwab Network
Oct 12
Review & Preview: Birthday Bull
Review & Preview: Birthday Bull Wait & See. The bull market turned four years old on Monday, but there wasn't much of a party. Stocks ended mixed (with the bond market closed for Columbus Day and tech acting as a drag.) Investors are largely waiting to see if earnings season can live up to high expectations. via Barrons
Oct 12
'This is how we solve CANCER, this is how we solve AGING,' expert says
'This is how we solve CANCER, this is how we solve AGING,' expert says Futurist and XPRIZE Foundation founder Peter Diamandis discusses how OpenAI's artificial intelligence solved decades-old math problems and what it could mean for the future on 'Making Money.' #foxbusiness #media #breakingnews #us #usa #new #news #breaking #makingmoney #ai #artificialintelligence #openai #technology #tech #innovation #science #research #math #mathematics #cancer #aging #health #healthcare #medicine #medical #future #futurism #peterdiamandis #diamandis #xprize #discovery #breakthrough #scientific #longevity #lifespan #humanity #intelligence #advancement #biotechnology #computers #experts via Fox Business
Oct 12
Investors worry the bull market is getting old. But history shows it can continue to age gracefully.
Investors worry the bull market is getting old. But history shows it can continue to age gracefully. Contrary to a widespread current worry among some on Wall Street, bull markets do not die of old age, via Market Watch
Oct 12
High gas prices are reviving EV demand, says Ross Gerber
High gas prices are reviving EV demand, says Ross Gerber High gas prices are putting real demand back into electric vehicles, says Gerber Kawasaki's Ross Gerber, guest-hosting Market Hang on October 12, 2026. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reviews Rivian's R2 and notes the reported second production line, the strength of the used EV market and new cheaper pickups from Ford and Slate. via Yahoo Finance
Oct 12
Jim Cramer says the bull market's remarkable 4-year run offers a crucial lesson for investors
Jim Cramer says the bull market's remarkable 4-year run offers a crucial lesson for investors CNBC's Jim Cramer said the bull market's incredible run shows why investors should stay invested through periods of uncertainty rather than trying to time the market. The S&P 500 has surged roughly 118% since its October 2022 bottom, despite overcoming interest rate hikes, a banking crisis, tariffs and geopolitical turmoil along the way. via CNBC
Oct 12
Fed's Hammack: Hope to cool demand, and inflation, without job market pain
Fed's Hammack: Hope to cool demand, and inflation, without job market pain Fed's Hammack: Hope to cool demand, and inflation, without job market pain via Reuters
Oct 12
Individual Investors Are Trading at Meme-Stock Levels
Individual Investors Are Trading at Meme-Stock Levels Volumes in options tied to individual stocks have surged back to 2021 meme-stock mania levels, reaching $700 billion daily as traders shrug off global conflicts, rising interest rates and $100 oil. Instead of AMC and GameStop driving “to the moon” bets, this new era of optimism comes from AI, solid earnings and blockbuster IPOs. Here's why individual investors are fearlessly embracing market volatility once again. via WSJ
Oct 12
Frenzied Stock-Options Trading Shows Individual Investors Are Still Hungry for Risk
Frenzied Stock-Options Trading Shows Individual Investors Are Still Hungry for Risk Trading in single-stock options contracts are near levels reached in 2021, when a new generation of amateur investors shook up Wall Street. via WSJ
Oct 12
The Line That Could Pop the AI Bubble
The Line That Could Pop the AI Bubble Last Wednesday, one day after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq set fresh all-time highs, another index was on the verge of a correction… The small-cap Russell 2000 – down almost 10% from its August peak – slumped to test its 200-day moving average, a widely watched gauge of an asset's long-term trend. via InvestorPlace
Oct 12

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